Winter Storm Warning 10, NWS Cheyenne, WY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1020 AM MST Fri Mar 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periods of strong winds are expected to persist near Arlington
  and adjacent portions of western and northern Carbon County
  through late Friday afternoon, with wind gusts 60 to 70 MPH
  expected. High Wind Warnings are in effect.

- Warm and dry conditions persist through Saturday.

- A strong cold front will bring much colder temperatures and
  increasing chances for snow to western areas late in the
  weekend into early next week. Significant snowfall
  accumulations will be possible in the Snowy and Sierra Madre
  mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 436 AM MST Fri Mar 1 2024

The High Wind Warnings for the Arlington wind prone and portions
of Carbon county will continue. Winds across these areas have
periodically gusted above 58 mph with mainly across the
Arlington wind prone area with gusts near 55 mph occurring at
the Rawlins Airfield. Expect these winds to continue through the
morning with generally breeziness across the rest of the region
today and again on Saturday.

The above seasonal temperatures and breezy conditions will
continue across much of eastern Wyoming and the Nebraska
panhandle today through the first part of the weekend. Relative
humidity values are forecast to drop below 20% across portions
of the I-25 corridor and areas south of the North Platte River
Valley in eastern Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle on
Saturday. There could be a brief window where elevated to near
critical fire weather conditions may develop during the
afternoon hours on Saturday. These areas will be monitored for
potential issuances of either a Fire Weather Watch or Red Flag
Warning.

After several days of above normal temperatures, a strong cold
front will approach the region Saturday afternoon and quickly
push across the region and exiting the region late Saturday
night. The arrival of this cold front will signal the beginning
of the next progressive moving storm system that will impact the
area brining the threat for snow back into the forecast for the
valleys. While the valleys may see some snow expect
accumulation's to be light with little impacts expected. The
heaviest snow will fall across the Sierra Madre and Snowy
Mountain ranges where beginning Saturday night period of heavy
snow will be possible for several hours. Current snowfall
forecast has 17-28" of snow falling across both mountain ranges.
With increased confidence, a Winter Storm Watch has been issued
for the Sierra Madre and Snowy Mountain ranges beginning
Saturday night and continuing into Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 436 AM MST Fri Mar 1 2024

Sunday...Looks like a fairly potent and progressive shortwave trough
aloft and its associated cold front move across our counties,
bringing brisk and colder weather to the forecast area. 700 mb
temperatures fall to near -10 Celsius, yielding high temperatures
from the 30s west of I-25, to the 40s to near 50 degrees to the
east, and possibly even colder. Adequate low and mid level moisture,
cyclonic flow aloft and dynamics support chance to likely POPS for
snow, though accumulations look limited based on the progressive
nature of the trough aloft, except for the Snowy and Sierra Madre
ranges, where a foot of new snow will be possible from Sunday
through Monday in moist flow aloft.

Monday...Blustery, windy and cold with cyclonic flow aloft and tight
low and mid level gradients. With enough moisture and cyclonic flow
aloft, slight chances for light snow will continue. 700 mb
temperatures near -10 Celsius will yield maximum temperatures from
near 30 degrees west of I-25, to the mid 30s to mid 40s east of I-25.

Tuesday...Expect a slow warming trend as the flow aloft turns west,
helping a surface lee trough to develop. 700 mb temperatures rebound
to -13 Celsius, helping maximum temperatures to reach the mid 30s
west of I-25, with 40s further east.

Wednesday...The slow warming trend continues as the flow aloft backs
to southwest and 700 mb temperatures rebound to -7 Celsius. Looks
like a chance for orographic snow showers for the Snowy and Sierra
Madre ranges.

Thursday...Somewhat moist zonal flow aloft continues, producing a
chance of snow. Temperatures remain about the same as those from
Wednesday based on 700 mb temperatures near -9 Celsius.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 436 AM MST Fri Mar 1 2024

VFR conditions will prevail across all terminals through the
valid TAF period. Gusts 25 to 35 knots are possible through 00Z
across the Nebraska panhandle and at KCYS, but KLAR and KRWL
will likely receive wind gusts 35 to 45 knots through the 18Z
TAF period. While wind gusts will subside overnight across the
Nebraska panhandle, another round of gusty winds are expected
Saturday late morning to afternoon.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for WYZ104-109-
     110.
     Winter Storm Watch from Saturday afternoon through late Sunday
     night for WYZ112-114.
NE...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...AW
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...LEG

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1135 AM MST Fri Mar 1 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0936 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 3 NW Elk Mountain       41.72N 106.45W
03/01/2024  M59 MPH          Carbon             WY   Mesonet

            Mesonet station WY19 2.9 NW Elk Mountain
            (WYDOT).

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
103 PM MST Fri Mar 1 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1236 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 15 E Sinclair           41.74N 106.84W
03/01/2024  M58 MPH          Carbon             WY   Mesonet

            Mesonet station WY15 14.5 E Sinclair
            (WYDOT).

1252 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 2 NE Rawlins            41.80N 107.20W
03/01/2024  M62 MPH          Carbon             WY   ASOS

            ASOS station KRWL 1 ENE Rawlins.

&&