Severe Thunderstorm Warning 30, NWS Cheyenne, WY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1113 AM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected across all of
  southeast Wyoming and the western Nebraska Panhandle today. Strong
  to locally damaging wind gusts will be the main convective
  hazard, mainly from late morning through late afternoon.

- Elevated to high winds will be possible across the Arlington wind
  prone and south Laramie Range foothills and I-80 Summit
  Tuesday and Wednesday. A High Wind watch may be needed.

- Above normal temperatures likely Tuesday through Thursday as temperatures
  climb into the mid to upper 80s across much of the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 415 AM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Convection is finally wrapping up across the area as the lift
associated with the latest vorticity maximum moves out to the
east. High clouds and moisture can be seen on satellite ejecting
across western Nebraska. The break will not be long-lived
though. The broad but low amplitude trough axis is nearing the
area and will finally push through later today and bring another
round of showers and thunderstorms. This trough has supported
the development of a modest surface cyclone in the lee of the
Bighorns in NE WY/SE MT. The low and associated surface trough
extending southward along the front range will push eastward
this morning as a cool front, pushing the dryline mostly east of
our area and ushering in west to northwest winds at the
surface. Recent guidance has trended faster with this, which
will lead to an earlier than usual max temperature today and
also inhibit the heating potential somewhat. Convection will
kick off early today, perhaps as early as 11AM with scattered to
numerous showers and storms expected to cover much of the area
by mid afternoon. While the low-levels will be fairly dry,
precipitable water is above normal for this time of year thanks
to good moisture between about 600 and 200 mb. Vertical wind is
decent, but mostly speed shear as winds will be more or less
mostly westerly through the column. These parameters and HiRes
guidance indicate the potential for upscale growth into linear
systems as the afternoon progresses. Storms will be capable of
producing isolated to scattered strong to severe wind gusts.
Isolated hail reports are certainly possible, but wind is the
primary concern today. A more favorable environment for severe
storms will be located just east of our forecast area, so we
will be watching for more diverse storm hazards in the eastern
row of counties where low-level moisture is better and there is
some directional wind shear. On the bright side, this should not
be a very long duration event, as the trough axis should pass
through between 6 and 8PM and shut off the primary lifting
mechanism behind. A few showers may linger into the evening, but
the severe threat should be concluded by then.

Again, the break won't be very long as this next shortwave races out
to the east and another strong but low amplitude wave drops into the
Pacific northwest tonight. However, considerable warm air advection
aloft overnight into tomorrow morning will result in reduced mid-
level lapse rates on Monday and fairly minimal instability. While
synoptic lift should still be enough to kick off shower activity
along and ahead of the next front, severe convection is fairly
unlikely. However, the marginal instability should be enough to have
embedded thunderstorms. Monday will also be a fairly late show,
since it's more related to the synoptic cold front which will arrive
in the evening. Look for activity to develop over our western zones
in the late afternoon and progress eastward through about midnight.
This trough will be more potent than the preceding ones, leading to
a return of the gusty winds across the area. Elevated to near high
winds will start as early as Monday night, but more information on
this is found in the long term section below.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 415 AM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024

The first half of the long term forecast period will be quiet in
terms of precipitation chances, but we could see a period of
elevated to high winds impacting the both the wind prone regions and
locations along and east of the Laramie Range Tuesday and Wednesday.
A strong shortwave trough will pass north of the region and at the
base of this trough axis will be a band of 50-55kt 700mb winds that
will be located across Wyoming. This flow will also be out of the
west which is typically a good vector for our region to see some
elevated wind gusts. Tight MSLP gradients located across the Laramie
Range will be the driving force for the high winds across the
Arlington wind prone and the I-80 Summit. In house model guidance
still show greater than 50 percent probabilities for high wind gusts
for Arlington and the south Laramie Range location Tuesday and
Wednesday. If trends hold, a High Wind Watch may be needed for those
areas where the confidence is highest for wind gusts greater than 58
mph will occur. Areas along and east of I-25 across SE Wyoming could
see breezy conditions through this time period, but high winds are
not anticipated at this time.

Temperatures during this period wil also trend to above normals for
much of SE Wyoming. These temperatures may also be boosted by the
warm and dry downslope winds that will be ongoing. Current forecast
shows temperatures int he mid 80s holding steady Tuesday through
Thursday across much of SE Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle. With
these warmer than average temperatures and gusty winds, there is
some concern for some fire weather conditions to materialize during
the afternoon hours.

Heading toward the end of next week, ridging builds aloft which will
keep the forecast predominately dry and warm but there is a chance we
could see some afternoon diurnal convection over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1109 AM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms will sweep through the
area quickly this afternoon. VFR is expected at all terminals,
with brief fluctuations to MVFR when VCTS and TSRA bring VIS
reductions and gusty winds at times between 18z and 0z today.
Wind gusts could approach severe thresholds, so AMD may be
necessary at times this afternoon for some terminals. Please see
individual TAFs for further information.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...MN
LONG TERM...AW
AVIATION...BW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
411 AM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024

NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096-WYZ101>119-031015-
Dawes County-Box Butte County-Scotts Bluff County-Banner County-
Morrill County-Kimball County-Cheyenne County-
Northern Sioux County-Southern Sioux County-
Converse County Lower Elevations-Niobrara County-
North Laramie Range-Ferris/Seminoe/Shirley Mountains-
Shirley Basin-Central Laramie Range and Southwest Platte County-
East Platte County-Goshen County-Central Carbon County-
North Snowy Range Foothills-Southwest Carbon County-
Sierra Madre Range-Upper North Platte River Basin-Snowy Range-
Laramie Valley-South Laramie Range-South Laramie Range Foothills-
Central Laramie County-East Laramie County-
411 AM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of panhandle
Nebraska...east central Wyoming...south central Wyoming and
southeast Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

- Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected across all of
  southeast Wyoming and the western Nebraska Panhandle today.
  Strong to locally damaging wind gusts will be the main
  convective hazard, mainly from late morning through late
  afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

- Elevated to high winds will be possible across the Arlington wind
  prone and south Laramie Range foothills and I-80 Summit
  Tuesday and Wednesday. A High Wind watch may be needed.

- Above normal temperatures likely Tuesday through Thursday as temperatures
  climb into the mid to upper 80s across much of the region.

.Spotter information statement...

Spotters are encouraged to report severe weather to the local
National Weather Service Office.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
120 PM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024

WYZ116>119-021945-
South Laramie Range WY-Central Laramie County WY-
South Laramie Range Foothills WY-East Laramie County WY-
120 PM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN ALBANY AND WESTERN
LARAMIE COUNTIES THROUGH 145 PM MDT...

At 120 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles northeast of Horse Creek to near
Winchester Hills. Movement was east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Cheyenne, Happy Valley, Federal, Table Mountain Ranches, Rocking Star
Ranch, Silver Sage Estates, Laramie County Fairgrounds at Archer, Fox
Farm-College, Cheyenne Regional Airport, Winchester Hills, South
Greeley Highway, Ranchettes, Warren AFB, Frontier Park, Whitaker,
North Cheyenne, Horse Creek, South Cheyenne, Bison Crossing, and
Grass Hills.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 25 in Wyoming between mile markers 1 and 44.
 Interstate 80 in Wyoming between mile markers 345 and 375.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4147 10539 4165 10475 4101 10449 4100 10507
TIME...MOT...LOC 1920Z 256DEG 26KT 4150 10509 4107 10492

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Hammer

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
141 PM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0135 PM     Hail             5 ESE Harrisburg        41.52N 103.66W
06/02/2024  E1.50 Inch       Banner             NE   Trained Spotter

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTS PING PONG SIZE HAIL
            STONES NEAR THE SOUTH BOUND WEIGH STATION
            OFF HIGHWAY 71 IN BANNER COUNTY, NE.

&&

BW

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
157 PM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024

NEZ002-022030-
Dawes NE-
157 PM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN DAWES COUNTY
THROUGH 230 PM MDT...

At 157 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles southwest of Roberts Trailhead Campground, or 22 miles
southwest of Chadron, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Roberts Trailhead Campground, Red Cloud Campground, Chadron State
Park, Belmont, and Chadron State Park Campground.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Cheyenne.

&&

LAT...LON 4249 10337 4263 10337 4274 10299 4246 10298
TIME...MOT...LOC 1957Z 265DEG 23KT 4256 10327

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Hammer

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
220 PM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024

WYZ102-107-108-022100-
East Platte County WY-Goshen County WY-Niobrara County WY-
220 PM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NIOBRARA...NORTHWESTERN
GOSHEN AND NORTHEASTERN PLATTE COUNTIES THROUGH 300 PM MDT...

At 220 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Manville, or 9 miles west of Lusk, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lusk, Manville, Van Tassell, Keeline, and Niobrara County
Fairgrounds.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4259 10467 4275 10478 4303 10435 4266 10410
TIME...MOT...LOC 2020Z 241DEG 26KT 4271 10464

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Trudel