Severe Thunderstorm Warning 132, NWS Cheyenne, WY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
353 PM MDT Sat Jul 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will continue through the
  remainder of the afternoon and evening. Some of the storms may
  be strong especially north of a Cheyenne to Sidney line. The
  main threats will be penny to nickel size hail and gusty
  winds to 50 mph.

- Hot and Dry conditions are expected the remainder of the week
  with critical to near critical fire weather conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 258 PM MDT Sat Jul 27 2024

Numerous embedded showers and thunderstorms will continue to
develop across the southern portions of Wyoming this afternoon.
These showers and thunderstorms are associated with a weakened
cap, orographics and decent lift along the left exit region of
the upper level jet moving through northern Colorado. The bulk
of these storms so far have been subsevere with limited
effective shear. According to SPC mesoscale graphics there is
better shear and instability in the northern panhandle, but the
instability has been trending downward over the past couple of
hours as dewpoints have been mixing out. We still will need to
keep an eye on the convection moving northeast out of the
Snowy Range and Albany county and see how it evolves. Elsewhere,
we are looking at clusters of showers and thunderstorms
gradually diminishing as the evening progresses with only a few
showers and thunderstorms possible overnight in the Nebraska
panhandle.

Sunday looks to be quite a different story with much warmer and
drier conditions as subsidence starts to build on the right exit
region of the upper level jet. The models do show some shortwave
energy moving thorugh Montana and northern Wyoming which may
stir up a few isolated thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon over
the higher terrain with a better focus over Converse and
Niobrara counties. However, the bigger concern will be the Red
Flag potential due to gusty winds and low humidity. The main
concern will be over areas along and west of the I-25 corridor.
As a result, we went ahead and issued a Red Flag Warning for
those areas and a Fire Weather Watch for areas along the I-25
corridor from 18Z-02z. These gusty winds should die off fairly
quickly on Sunday evening, but would not expect very much
in the way of humidity recoveries overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 258 PM MDT Sat Jul 27 2024

The models/ensembles are in good agreement in showing the upper
level ridge gradually building over the Rockies late next week.
Until then, we are looking at the potential for more critical
fire weather conditions each afternoon as zonal flow persists
with deep mixing through Wednesday. This will help dry things
out and bring very hot temperatures. The models have been
advertising a weak shortwave moving through Montana, which may
bring an associated frontal boundary through the area on
Wednesday. Unfortunately, this boundary will not be accompanied
by much in the way of moisture, but it may cool us down a few
degrees. Otherwise, temperatures are expected to remain well
above normal for this time of year from Thursday onward. In
fact, NAEFS ensemble members are showing 700mb temperatures of 1
to 2 standard deviations above normal which will yield to
temperatures in the 90-100 degree range.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1140 AM MDT Sat Jul 27 2024

Another active day of showers and thunderstorms is anticipated
today. Thunderstorms are already developing in Wyoming and will
expand in coverage and move to the ENE through the afternoon
hours. TEMPO groups attempt to capture the progression of the
first round of storms which may bring gusty/erratic winds, brief
VIS reductions in heavy rainfall, lightning, and possibly small
hail. However, additional rounds will be possible after the
first round through the evening hours. A few showers and
possibly some rumbles of thunder through about 08z. Expect
clearing skies after that.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday
     evening for WYZ419-430.
     Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Sunday for WYZ420-421-
     423-425-427>429.
NE...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...REC
LONG TERM...REC
AVIATION...MN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
300 PM MDT Sat Jul 27 2024

WYZ112>114-272145-
Sierra Madre Range WY-Upper North Platte River Basin WY-
Snowy Range WY-
300 PM MDT Sat Jul 27 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN CARBON AND
SOUTHWESTERN ALBANY COUNTIES THROUGH 345 PM MDT...

At 259 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Odd Fellows Campground, or 50 miles southeast of Rawlins, moving east
at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Encampment, Riverside, Savage Run Wilderness, Ryan Park, Skyline,
Rambler, Corral Creek Campground, Pickaroon Campground, Odd Fellows
Campground, Silver Lake Campground, Keystone, Ryan Park Campground,
Medicine Bow Peak, South Brush Creek Campground, Bobbie Thompson
Campground, French Creek Campground, Bennett Creek Campground, Pike
Pole Campground, Snowy Range Pass, and Platte River Wilderness.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4109 10678 4125 10684 4144 10633 4109 10622
TIME...MOT...LOC 2059Z 255DEG 28KT 4116 10672

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Natoli

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
326 PM MDT Sat Jul 27 2024

WYZ104-105-109-110-113-114-272230-
Shirley Basin WY-Upper North Platte River Basin WY-
North Snowy Range Foothills WY-Central Carbon County WY-
Ferris/Seminoe/Shirley Mountains WY-Snowy Range WY-
326 PM MDT Sat Jul 27 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN CARBON AND NORTH
CENTRAL ALBANY COUNTIES THROUGH 430 PM MDT...

At 326 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 9 miles northwest of
Miracle Mile to near Dugway Campground to Rim Lake. Movement was east
at 60 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Rawlins, Hanna, Sinclair, Medicine Bow, Elk Mountain, Seminoe
Campground, Fort Steele Historic Site, Shirley Basin, Kortes Dam,
Rawlins Municipal Airport, Bow River Campground, Deep Creek
Campground, Rim Lake, Seminoe State Park, Teton Reservoir, Miracle
Mile, Seminoe Dam, Prior Flat Campground, Dugway Campground, and
Separation Lake.

This includes Interstate 80 in Wyoming between mile markers 209 and
275.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4190 10727 4244 10731 4243 10613 4219 10600
      4142 10620 4158 10741
TIME...MOT...LOC 2126Z 248DEG 53KT 4229 10701 4192 10702 4166 10728

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Natoli

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
337 PM MDT Sat Jul 27 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0319 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 NE Rawlins            41.80N 107.20W
07/27/2024  M58 MPH          Carbon             WY   ASOS

            ASOS station KRWL 1 ENE Rawlins.

&&

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