Severe Thunderstorm Warning 116, NWS Cheyenne, WY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
541 PM MDT Fri Jul 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe weather is possible today as a cold front moves across
  the region. Damaging winds and isolated large hail are
  possible as the cold front moves through. Cooler temperatures
  for Saturday.

- Cooler weather expected this weekend into Monday ahead of a
  gradual warming trend to above average temperatures through
  next week.

&&

.MESOSCALE /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 221 PM MDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Widespread thundershowers have popped up across portions of
southeast WY the past 1-2 hrs as we see sufficient daytime heating
ans surface convergence displayed well via satellite and radar.
Northwest flow aloft is providing weak steering flow at H7. Surface
temperatures range from the middle 80s to lower 90s for most of the
eastern tier of our cwa, with slightly cooler temperatures along the
I-80 corridor between the I-80 Summit and Rawlins. As of 20Z,
sub-severe thunderstorm activity remains ahead of the cold
front. SPC Mesoanalysis has low-level and mid-level lapse rates
8-10 degrees C/km. MLCAPE readings as of 20Z are 1000-1500 J/kg
for areas east of the Laramie Range where peak heating has
assisted with making the environment conditionally unstable.
Effective bulk wind shear is meager...20-30 knots from 0-6km.
Short term hi-res model data continues to suggest that we will
see convection through the 2z-3z hour for most of the cwa, and
then it will push further south. Can't rule out an isolated
severe thunderstorm this afternoon to the early evening. The
strongest threat looks to be a marginal potential for strong
wind gusts via straightline winds from thunderstorm outflow. The
cold front should arrive much later this evening, and those
outdoors will see a much cooler weather pattern behind the
FROPA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 221 PM MDT Fri Jul 19 2024

The models are in pretty good agreement in showing the upper
level ridge building over the area through mid week. This will
essentially strengthen the cap as the week wears on and limit
the convection chances. The precipitable water values are
progged to be closer to 1 inch on Monday over the Nebraska
panhandle while the rest of the CWA will be less than an inch.
NBM probabilities are showing CAPE values 500 j/kg or less over
the Nebraska panhandle. If we can get enough instability over
the the Laramie Range and Pine Ridge, we may be able to spark
some isolated convection with the main threat being gusty winds.
As we head into mid week, the WPC clusters are showing the upper
level ridge dominating the area which will limit any convection
development. Was tempted to lower pops over the higher terrain
during this timeframe, but will hold things off for now and see
how the ridge materializes. We did raise temperatures a bit
towards the end of the week which is when the models are trying
to flatten the ridge a bit which may enhance the downslope flow.
In addition, the flattening of the ridge will also tend to
increase the precipitation chances as we head into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 540 PM MDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Northwest flow aloft will continue.

Wyoming TAFS...Scattered to broken clouds from 6000 to 10000 feet
will prevail, with occasional thunderstorms until 02Z, producing
wind gusts to 35 knots and visibilities to 5 miles. Outside of
thunderstorms, winds will gust to 25 knots until 02Z, and to
22 knots at Rawlins and Cheyenne after 18Z Saturday.

Nebraska TAFS...Scattered to broken clouds from 8000 to 10000 feet
will prevail, with occasional thunderstorms until 02Z, producing
wind gusts of 35 to 45 knots along with visibilities from 3 to 5
miles. Outside of thunderstorms, winds will gust to 25 knots until
02Z.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM...REC
AVIATION...RUBIN

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
533 AM MDT Fri Jul 19 2024

NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096-WYZ101>103-106>108-117>119-
201145-
Dawes County-Box Butte County-Scotts Bluff County-Banner County-
Morrill County-Kimball County-Cheyenne County-
Northern Sioux County-Southern Sioux County-
Converse County Lower Elevations-Niobrara County-
North Laramie Range-
Central Laramie Range and Southwest Platte County-
East Platte County-Goshen County-South Laramie Range Foothills-
Central Laramie County-East Laramie County-
533 AM MDT Fri Jul 19 2024

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of panhandle
Nebraska...east central Wyoming and southeast Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Severe weather is possible Friday as a cold front moves across the
region. Damaging winds and isolated large hail are possible as the
cold front moves through. Cooler temperatures for Saturday.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

Cooler weather expected this weekend into Monday ahead of a gradual
warming trend to above average temperatures through next week.

.Spotter information statement...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

WYZ104-105-109>116-201145-
Ferris/Seminoe/Shirley Mountains-Shirley Basin-
Central Carbon County-North Snowy Range Foothills-
Southwest Carbon County-Sierra Madre Range-
Upper North Platte River Basin-Snowy Range-Laramie Valley-
South Laramie Range-
533 AM MDT Fri Jul 19 2024

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Wyoming and southeast Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible this afternoon and
evening. Cooler temperatures expected tomorrow.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

Cooler weather expected this weekend into Monday ahead of a gradual
warming trend to above average temperatures through next week.

.Spotter information statement...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
521 PM MDT Fri Jul 19 2024

WYZ117-118-192345-
Central Laramie County WY-South Laramie Range Foothills WY-
521 PM MDT Fri Jul 19 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN LARAMIE COUNTY
THROUGH 545 PM MDT...

At 521 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Warren AFB, or 7 miles northwest of Cheyenne, moving southeast at 35
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Cheyenne, Happy Valley, Rocking Star Ranch, Silver Sage Estates, Fox
Farm-College, Cheyenne Regional Airport, Winchester Hills, South
Greeley Highway, Warren AFB, Frontier Park, North Cheyenne, South
Cheyenne, Bison Crossing, Ranchettes, Grass Hills, and Cowboy Ranch
South.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 25 in Wyoming between mile markers 1 and 19.
 Interstate 80 in Wyoming between mile markers 352 and 369.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4119 10507 4130 10490 4106 10454 4100 10463
      4100 10491
TIME...MOT...LOC 2321Z 312DEG 30KT 4120 10491

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Cox

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
548 PM MDT Fri Jul 19 2024

WYZ106>108-117-118-200030-
East Platte County WY-
Central Laramie Range and Southwest Platte County WY-
Goshen County WY-Central Laramie County WY-
South Laramie Range Foothills WY-
548 PM MDT Fri Jul 19 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN GOSHEN...NORTH
CENTRAL LARAMIE AND SOUTHEASTERN PLATTE COUNTIES THROUGH 630 PM
MDT...

At 548 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Chugwater, or 16 miles south of Wheatland, moving south at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Chugwater and Slater.

This includes Interstate 25 in Wyoming between mile markers 37 and
69.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4189 10504 4194 10481 4158 10460 4150 10494
TIME...MOT...LOC 2348Z 345DEG 19KT 4182 10490

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Cox

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
601 PM MDT Fri Jul 19 2024

NEZ021-200045-
Morrill NE-
601 PM MDT Fri Jul 19 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EASTERN MORRILL COUNTY THROUGH
645 PM MDT...

At 601 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles east of Angora, or 19 miles south of Alliance, moving south at
30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Broadwater and The Intersection Of Highway 385 And 92.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM MDT for
the Panhandle of Nebraska.

&&

LAT...LON 4186 10309 4193 10284 4157 10263 4145 10294
TIME...MOT...LOC 0001Z 342DEG 27KT 4182 10293

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Cox

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