High Wind Warning 4, NWS Cheyenne, WY

196 
WWUS75 KCYS 080858
NPWCYS

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
158 AM MST Thu Feb 8 2024

WYZ110-116-117-090000-
/O.CON.KCYS.HW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-240209T0000Z/
North Snowy Range Foothills-South Laramie Range-
South Laramie Range Foothills-
Including the cities of Arlington, Elk Mountain, Buford, 
Pumpkin Vine, Vedauwoo, Whitaker, Federal, and Horse Creek
158 AM MST Thu Feb 8 2024

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...West winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph.

* WHERE...North Snowy Range Foothills, South Laramie Range and 
  South Laramie Range Foothills.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM MST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

908 
WWUS75 KCYS 090000
NPWCYS

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
500 PM MST Thu Feb 8 2024

WYZ110-116-117-090100-
/O.EXP.KCYS.HW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-240209T0000Z/
North Snowy Range Foothills-South Laramie Range-
South Laramie Range Foothills-
Including the cities of Arlington, Elk Mountain, Buford, 
Pumpkin Vine, Vedauwoo, Whitaker, Federal, and Horse Creek
500 PM MST Thu Feb 8 2024

...HIGH WIND WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON...

Winds have been calming late this afternoon across southeast 
Wyoming wind-prone locations and expect to continue to lighten up
overnight. Therefore, the High Wind Warning has been allowed to
expire. Occasional wind gusts up to 40 mph will still be possible
over the next few hours.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1039 AM MST Wed Feb 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A messy storm system is expected to pass through our area
  Wednesday into Thursday, bringing accumulating mountain snowfall
  and scattered rain and snow showers for the valleys.

- Strong winds are increasingly likely on Wednesday night and
  Thursday as the storm system departs the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 425 AM MST Wed Feb 7 2024

First initial impacts of the much advertised messy long wave
trough are beginning to move into the region this morning. The
first vorticity maxima and upper level cold front is pushing
through the region and has initiated some precipitation returns
across much of central Wyoming which has started our as mostly
valley rain with light mountain snow showers. The heaviest
precipitation will arrive throughout the afternoon as the bulk
of the long wave energy associated with the main trough axis
will push through. This will shift the flow to the WSW which
will be the beginnings of the Sierra Madre and Snowy mountains
which lines up well with the current headlines out for these
zones. The heaviest of the snow will fall across the Sierra
Madre mountains where a Winter Storm Warning is in effect for
18-24" of snow. While the Snowy's will miss out thanks to
shadowing affects, as the main trough axis pushes to the east
and with the development of NW flow, there will be enough QPF
present to kick-start a period of moderate to heavy snow for
the Snowy Mountains. Did not see any significant changes to
this aspect of the forecast so the current Winter Weather
Advisory looks on track.

As the trough pushes east, models still suggest the development
of a closed that could push some wrap around moisture in the
region, but with this low displaced well of to our north and
east not expecting significant impacts with light accumulation
possible across the higher valleys of Carbon County. The other
facet of the forecast we will from this closed low system to our
north will be the development of some elevated to high winds
late tonight and into Thursday. The setup doesn't favor the
Bordeaux wind prone and would like to see better downward omega
fields to increase confidence in high winds for the Arlington
wind prone area, so no additions were made to the High Wind
highlights at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 425 AM MST Wed Feb 7 2024

he long term remains unsettled, yet likely not impactful as
shortwave after shortwave impact the CWA into next week.

Starting Friday, an embedded shortwave within the main 500 mb trough
sitting across much of northern CONUS will pass just south of the
CWA. With this small system passing to our south, most of the
precipitation associated with it should stay confined to the
Interstate-80 corridor. At the heels of this system, comes the main
trough axis which will bring more precipitation to a broader area of
the CWA on Saturday. The main trough will also usher in colder 700
mb temperatures, leading to below average highs on Saturday. Any
precipitation that falls will likely be snow. Neither system shows
much in the way of QPF so accumulations should be minimal with the
mountains picking up between 2 and 4 inch and the plain picking up
between a trace and an inch.

Sunday into Monday look like the quietest days of the long term as
weak ridging advects slightly warmer and drier air into the region.
Although temperatures will still be on the cool side Sunday, by
Monday, highs should be back up to normal for this time of year.
Heading into Tuesday and Wednesday, the GFS and ECMWF conflict.
ECMWF keeps weather benign and dry through mid-week but the GFS has
more weak shortwaves that could bring some light precipitation to
the mountains. Regardless, both models keep temperatures fairly
consistent, with highs near to slightly above average through
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1035 AM MST Wed Feb 7 2024

A complex aviation forecast continues for the upcoming TAF
period. Dense fog and low CIGs linger in the central/northern NE
panhandle, but this is expected to burn off within the next hour
or two. Meanwhile, mid-level moisture pushing in from the south
will develop scattered shower activity this afternoon.
Precipitation type is expected to be rain for the High Plains,
but this will quickly switch to snow behind the frontal boundary
in Wyoming. Winds will also turn westerly and become gusty
behind this front. Additionally, a rumble of thunder can't be
ruled out this afternoon. While the probability is only about
10-20%, decided to put VCTS in the TAF since this is very much
out of season and may be unexpected this time of year.

The frontal boundary should clear the area this evening. Expect
increasing winds in Wyoming, with a surge in NW winds over the
NE panhandle after midnight. This may also bring another round
of rain/snow showers and low CIGs, but it shouldn't last too
long. Expect clearing skies Thursday morning, though windy
conditions will remain.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Winter Storm Warning until 5 PM MST Thursday for WYZ112.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST Thursday for WYZ114.
     High Wind Watch from 8 PM MST this evening through Thursday
     afternoon for WYZ116.
NE...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...AW
LONG TERM...SF
AVIATION...MN

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
300 PM MST Tue Feb 6 2024

NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096-WYZ101>119-072200-
Dawes County-Box Butte County-Scotts Bluff County-Banner County-
Morrill County-Kimball County-Cheyenne County-
Northern Sioux County-Southern Sioux County-
Converse County Lower Elevations-Niobrara County-
North Laramie Range-Ferris/Seminoe/Shirley Mountains-
Shirley Basin-Central Laramie Range and Southwest Platte County-
East Platte County-Goshen County-Central Carbon County-
North Snowy Range Foothills-Southwest Carbon County-
Sierra Madre Range-Upper North Platte River Basin-Snowy Range-
Laramie Valley-South Laramie Range-South Laramie Range Foothills-
Central Laramie County-East Laramie County-
300 PM MST Tue Feb 6 2024

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of panhandle
Nebraska...east central Wyoming...south central Wyoming and
southeast Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

Increasing snow shower activity for the Sierra Madre mountains
expected tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

- A messy storm system is expected to pass through our area
  Wednesday into Thursday, bringing accumulating mountain snowfall
  and scattered rain and snow showers for the valleys.

- Strong winds are increasingly likely on Wednesday night and
  Thursday as the storm system departs the area.

.Spotter information statement...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1150 AM MST Wed Feb 7 2024

WYZ110-080000-
North Snowy Range Foothills-
Including the cities of Arlington and Elk Mountain
1150 AM MST Wed Feb 7 2024

...GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON NEAR ARLINGTON AND ELK MOUNTAIN...

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 MPH are occurring in the Arlington and Elk
Mountain areas and are expected to continue through the afternoon,
and possibly the evening. Travel could be difficult for light
weight and high profile vehicles.