Flash Flood Warning 14, NWS Cheyenne, WY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
530 PM MDT Sat Jul 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will continue through the
  remainder of the afternoon and evening. Some of the storms may
  be strong especially north of a Cheyenne to Sidney line. The
  main threats will be penny to nickel size hail and gusty
  winds to 50 mph.

- Hot and Dry conditions are expected the remainder of the week
  with critical to near critical fire weather conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 258 PM MDT Sat Jul 27 2024

Numerous embedded showers and thunderstorms will continue to
develop across the southern portions of Wyoming this afternoon.
These showers and thunderstorms are associated with a weakened
cap, orographics and decent lift along the left exit region of
the upper level jet moving through northern Colorado. The bulk
of these storms so far have been subsevere with limited
effective shear. According to SPC mesoscale graphics there is
better shear and instability in the northern panhandle, but the
instability has been trending downward over the past couple of
hours as dewpoints have been mixing out. We still will need to
keep an eye on the convection moving northeast out of the
Snowy Range and Albany county and see how it evolves. Elsewhere,
we are looking at clusters of showers and thunderstorms
gradually diminishing as the evening progresses with only a few
showers and thunderstorms possible overnight in the Nebraska
panhandle.

Sunday looks to be quite a different story with much warmer and
drier conditions as subsidence starts to build on the right exit
region of the upper level jet. The models do show some shortwave
energy moving through Montana and northern Wyoming which may
stir up a few isolated thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon over
the higher terrain with a better focus over Converse and
Niobrara counties. However, the bigger concern will be the Red
Flag potential due to gusty winds and low humidity. The main
concern will be over areas along and west of the I-25 corridor.
As a result, we went ahead and issued a Red Flag Warning for
those areas and a Fire Weather Watch for areas along the I-25
corridor from 18Z-02z. These gusty winds should die off fairly
quickly on Sunday evening, but would not expect very much
in the way of humidity recoveries overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 258 PM MDT Sat Jul 27 2024

The models/ensembles are in good agreement in showing the upper
level ridge gradually building over the Rockies late next week.
Until then, we are looking at the potential for more critical
fire weather conditions each afternoon as zonal flow persists
with deep mixing through Wednesday. This will help dry things
out and bring very hot temperatures. The models have been
advertising a weak shortwave moving through Montana, which may
bring an associated frontal boundary through the area on
Wednesday. Unfortunately, this boundary will not be accompanied
by much in the way of moisture, but it may cool us down a few
degrees. Otherwise, temperatures are expected to remain well
above normal for this time of year from Thursday onward. In
fact, NAEFS ensemble members are showing 700mb temperatures of 1
to 2 standard deviations above normal which will yield to
temperatures in the 90-100 degree range.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 525 PM MDT Sat Jul 27 2024

Scattered thunderstorms are anticipated to sweep from southwest
to northeast this evening. VFR will briefly fluctuate with
IFR/MVFR as -TSRA pushes through terminals across the area. Wind
gusts in the strongest of thunderstorms will create gusty and
erratic winds up to 60mph briefly, but should dissipate quickly
behind the departing -TSRA. Wind gusts overnight should remain
below 12 knots overnight.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday
     evening for WYZ419-430.
     Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Sunday for WYZ420-421-
     423-425-427>429.
NE...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...REC
LONG TERM...REC
AVIATION...BW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
426 PM MDT Sat Jul 27 2024

NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096-WYZ101>119-282230-
Dawes County-Box Butte County-Scotts Bluff County-Banner County-
Morrill County-Kimball County-Cheyenne County-
Northern Sioux County-Southern Sioux County-
Converse County Lower Elevations-Niobrara County-
North Laramie Range-Ferris/Seminoe/Shirley Mountains-
Shirley Basin-Central Laramie Range and Southwest Platte County-
East Platte County-Goshen County-Central Carbon County-
North Snowy Range Foothills-Southwest Carbon County-
Sierra Madre Range-Upper North Platte River Basin-Snowy Range-
Laramie Valley-South Laramie Range-South Laramie Range Foothills-
Central Laramie County-East Laramie County-
426 PM MDT Sat Jul 27 2024

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of panhandle
Nebraska...east central Wyoming...south central Wyoming and
southeast Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to continue during the
remainder of the afternoon and evening. Some of these storms will
be strong and produce gusty winds to 50 mph and hail up to quarter
size.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

Hot and dry weather is expected to continue through the remainder
of the week. This will result in near critical or critical fire
weather conditions.

.Spotter information statement...

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