Wind Advisory 14, NWS State College, PA

750 
WWUS71 KCTP 300304
NPWCTP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service State College PA
1004 PM EST Sun Dec 29 2024

PAZ004>006-010>012-017-018-300415-
/O.EXP.KCTP.WI.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-241230T0300Z/
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-
Northern Centre-
Including the cities of St. Marys, DuBois, Clearfield,
Coudersport, Warren, Ridgway, Emporium, Renovo, Philipsburg, and
Bradford
1004 PM EST Sun Dec 29 2024

...WIND ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

Winds could continue to gust 25 to 35mph out of the southwest at 
times overnight in the wake of a cold front. Wind gusts in excess of 
45mph are unlikely outside of rain showers.

$$

PAZ024-033-300900-
/O.CON.KCTP.WI.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-241230T0900Z/
Cambria-Somerset-
Including the cities of Johnstown and Somerset
1004 PM EST Sun Dec 29 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Cambria and Somerset Counties.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high 
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

For high wind safety and preparedness information, visit 
weather.gov/wind.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
weather.gov/StateCollege

Banghoff

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
331 PM EST Sun Dec 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
* A cold front approaches the region this afternoon, bringing
  increased chances for rain and breezy to gusty winds this
  evening into Monday.
* Lingering showers on Monday across northwestern Pennsylvania
  before dry conditions prevail through Tuesday.
* The next system approaches central Pennsylvania late Tuesday,
  bringing renewed chances for rain, and potentially some wet
  snowflakes to the northern half of Pennsylvania.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Low-level moisture in place across the region will continue to
promote cloudy conditions throughout the remainder of the
afternoon, although some breaks in the cloud deck will be
possible across far southeastern Lancaster/Lebanon Counties
during the afternoon/early evening hours. Generally expect any
breaks in the low-level deck to be filled in with relatively
higher clouds this afternoon. The aforementioned low-level
moisture has allowed for continued fog formation across portions
of Schuylkill County during the late morning/early afternoon
hours with localized dense fog across portions of the I-81
corridor. Multiple RWIS sensors outlining < 1/4SM visibility
have prompted a SPS due to the localized nature of fog with this
bulk of it impacting the northern half of the county. Any
travelers across I-81 are encouraged to increase distance
between other motorists this afternoon before winds begin to
pick up later this afternoon, allowing for low-level moisture to
mix out and allow for lower risk of visibility restrictions.

An approaching cold front, currently stationed across across
eastern Ohio/western West Virginia will continue slowly
progressing towards the area this evening. The next couple of
hours could produce a slight lull in precipitation with main
rainfall chances across the higher elevations of The Laurel
Highland and northwestern Mountains as low-level warm advection
filters into the area. Relatively stable air persists, yet, and
is keeping the bulk of the area dry although confidence on dry
conditions wanes past 2-3pm. The cold front is expected to enter
the western periphery of the CTP forecast area during the late
afternoon/early evening hours (4-6p) and will bring moisture and
enhanced lift to the area, promoting likely/definite chances of
rain showers as it slowly progresses eastward and exiting east
of the area overnight. Enhanced low-level moisture will promote
fog formation (especially at higher elevations) with model
soundings outlining deep saturation throughout the low-levels.
Fog formation is expected to mix out quickly after rain moves
out of the area with breezy-to-gusty winds in the wake of the
cold front. Thunderstorm potential has decreased in recent model
guidance, with the best instability west/south of the region as
depicted in SPC's D1 Marginal Outlooks for W PA and S VA.

This cold frontal passage and approaching low-pressure is
expected to bring a tightening pressure gradient the western
zones over the course of the afternoon with the inversion slowly
breaking down on recent ACARS Soundings out of KPIT. Southerly
winds are generally expected to persist this evening before
turning more southwesterly by daybreak Monday. The highest wind
gusts are expected across the typical higher elevations of NW PA
and the Laurels this evening, topping out near 35-40 mph. Some
enhancement of low-level winds is progged by model guidance for
increased winds in Sullivan County overnight with gusts pushing
upwards to 40-45 mph, still slightly below Wind Advisory
Criteria. Given uncertainty on gusts, plus comparing model
guidance to current observations, have decided to keep wind
mentions to the HWO across the northwestern half of the area
with explicit mention of the higher elevations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
In the wake of the cold front, enhanced westerly flow will
allow for precipitation chances to continue through Monday
afternoon across NW PA with slightly lower chances of
precipitation across the Laurel Highlands. This model cycle,
have introduced a 1:1 NBM/CMCreg blend as NBM PoPs were
noticeably low across NW PA during this time period. Flow begins
to turn more southwesterly later in the day, which will dampen
chances closer to the evening hours with any precipitation
likely to end. Temperatures will generally remain warm enough to
promote rain showers; however, model soundings do indicate some
potential for a wet snow/rain mix across higher elevations of
the northern tier.

Dry conditions are expected to prevail overnight into Tuesday
morning, when the next system from the Midwest, with recent
model guidance indicating the surface low pushing across
northern Pennsylvania late Tuesday/early Wednesday. Onset of
precipitation is expected to be rain with colder air behind the
system allowing for a transition to rain/snow during the pre-
dawn and morning hours on Wednesday. At this time, there remains
some uncertainty with regards to the southern extent of
precipitation, as a more northerly track could allow for a drier
solution for the Lower Susquehanna Valley while a southerly
track would promote higher PoPs on Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Relatively unamplified upper pattern will dominate the long
term period, with light to moderate westerly flow aloft and at
the surface. Thus pcpn will be limited to higher elevations,
where scattered rain and snow showers will be possible each day
of the period.

Temperatures trend lower towards the end of the week with most
locations seeing highs around 5 degrees below normal by
Thursday. A tight pressure gradient behind the departing low
will make for a breezy day on Thursday with gusts of 30 to 40
mph across the Alleghenies. West-northwest flow will also
support lake effect and upslope snow showers through the end of
the week. A quick look at temperature trends beyond Friday
indicates the cold temperatures are likely to stick around this
weekend and into next week as a strong ridge is progged to build
over the western US, leaving the Ohio Valley and Mid- Atlantic
region with a deep digging trough over the region next week.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A strong 40-50+ kt southerly low-level jet will build across
the region today, creating low-level wind shear concerns. Even
as winds begin to mix down to the sfc as the day progresses,
speed shear will remain a concern. Widespread IFR cigs are
expected to persist overnight and early Monday morning.

Widespread rain showers will spread across the airspace this
evening and continue much of the overnight ahead of an
approaching cold front. This shower activity will gradually pull
east of the region late tonight, as winds become westerly
following the frontal passage.

Outlook...

Mon...Lingering showers are possible across NW PA; westerly
winds should begin to diminish.

Tue...Increasing clouds with rain expected again late.

Wed...Rain continuing with snow mixing in west of UNV; gusty
west winds developing.

Thu...Restrictions at JST and BFD in -SHSN; gusty west winds
continue.

Fri...Improving conds.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...NPB
NEAR TERM...NPB
SHORT TERM...NPB
LONG TERM...Gartner/Bauco/Bowen
AVIATION...Gartner/Evanego

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
1102 AM EST Sun Dec 29 2024

PAZ019-026>028-035-036-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066-301615-
Southern Centre-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Fulton-Franklin-
Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-
Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-
Adams-York-Lancaster-
1102 AM EST Sun Dec 29 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ004>006-010>012-017-018-024-025-033-034-037-041-042-301615-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-
Northern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Somerset-Bedford-Tioga-
Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-
1102 AM EST Sun Dec 29 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.
Southerly winds will likely gust between 30 and 35 mph across higher
elevations beginning this afternoon and continuing through tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

Beaty

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
1202 PM EST Sun Dec 29 2024

PAZ058-292100-
Schuylkill-
1202 PM EST Sun Dec 29 2024

...AREAS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG ON INTERSTATE 81 THIS AFTERNOON...

Locally dense fog over the higher terrain of Schuylkill County
will reduce visibilities to a quarter mile or less on Interstate
81. This will lead to drastically changing conditions for anyone
traveling this afternoon.

If traveling, expect rapidly changing conditions and areas of
very poor visibility. Motorists are encouraged to increase
distance between other vehicles and use low-beam headlights to
alert other motorists of your presence.

Conditions are expected to improve later this afternoon as winds
begin to increase, allowing for fog to dissipate by 4 PM.

Beaty