Flash Flood Warning 28, NWS State College, PA

532 
WGUS71 KCTP 300257
FFSCTP

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
1057 PM EDT Thu Aug 29 2024

PAC067-099-300600-
/O.CON.KCTP.FF.W.0028.000000T0000Z-240830T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Juniata PA-Perry PA-
1057 PM EDT Thu Aug 29 2024

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR 
SOUTH CENTRAL JUNIATA AND CENTRAL PERRY COUNTIES...

At 1057 PM EDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated 
thunderstorms producing heavy rain. Reports of significant flash 
flooding in and near Thompsontown. A number of road closures, as 
well as several basement collapses have been reported.

Between 2 and 3.5 inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall 
amounts of 1 to 3 inches are possible in the warned area. Flash 
flooding is already occurring.

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing
         flash flooding.

SOURCE...Radar and automated gauges.

IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams,
         urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Newport, New Bloomfield, Spruce Hill, Mexico, Ickesburg, 
  Loysville, Shermansdale, Thompsontown, Millerstown, Landisburg and 
  East Salem.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the 
dangers of flooding.

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are 
potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded 
roads. Find an alternate route.

&&

LAT...LON 4048 7747 4051 7740 4054 7737 4058 7735
      4060 7736 4062 7731 4062 7727 4058 7711
      4055 7705 4050 7702 4044 7703 4037 7707
      4032 7712 4030 7720 4031 7730 4035 7743
      4038 7747 4044 7749

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR AND GAUGE INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

Jurewicz

079 
WGUS71 KCTP 300558
FFSCTP

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
158 AM EDT Fri Aug 30 2024

PAC067-099-300608-
/O.EXP.KCTP.FF.W.0028.000000T0000Z-240830T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Juniata PA-Perry PA-
158 AM EDT Fri Aug 30 2024

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING AT 2 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NORTH 
CENTRAL JUNIATA AND CENTRAL PERRY COUNTIES HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A 
FLOOD WARNING...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

&&

LAT...LON 4048 7747 4051 7740 4054 7737 4058 7735
      4060 7736 4062 7731 4062 7727 4058 7711
      4055 7705 4050 7702 4044 7703 4037 7707
      4032 7712 4030 7720 4031 7730 4035 7743
      4038 7747 4044 7749

$$

Banghoff/Bowen

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1038 PM EDT Thu Aug 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A backdoor cold front will push west across the region today,
then stall out near the Ohio border Friday. This boundary will
return eastward as a warm front early Saturday, then a cold
front will push southeast across the region late in the day or
evening. A secondary cold front will likely sweep through the
state late Sunday, followed by high pressure building in from
the Great Lakes early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
22Z Update:

Best CAMS guidance members of the HREF thus far with respect to
the QPF from the slow-moving, strong to briefly severe convection
(with a localized flash flood threat) has been the NAM Nest and
HRW ARW. Both members look fairly accurate with the placement,
coverage and intensity of the TSRA (over the past few hours and
into the evening).

As dusk approaches, the mean solution of these members (and most
other members of the ensemble) focuses the most numerous TSRA
and heavy rain threat just to the west of the Middle and Lower
Susq Mainstem.

3 hour prob matched mean QPF in the 00-03Z window is between 1-2
inches within the region bounded by KUNV...KIPT...KSEG and KMDT.
This will reside in the eastern half of our current flood watch.
Localized 3+ inch amounts will be possible where storms briefly
backbuild/train over the same location.

A bullseye in the Sig Tor parameter (and deep layer moisture
flux convergence) across Ncent PA has prompted the issuance of
several SPSs that included landspouts - based on VROT values of
around 20 kts several KFT AGL. The quick tightening of the LLVL
circulation in one storm over NW Lycoming Cty prompted a 30
minute TOR warning.

Some of the taller TSRA cores produced nickel to quarter sized
hail with public photos sent in from just south of KAOO. SVR
TSRA Watch #663 is in effect for much of the Central Ridge and
Valley region until 11 PM EDT (03Z) while the flood watch across
Scent PA and portions of the Susq Valley continues through
midnight EDT (04Z).

Temps will be in the 75-80F range early this evening (and in the
mid to upper 60s) where some of the heavier rain falls.
lows early Friday will be mainly in the low to mid 60s.

The shortwave and accompanying threat of showers may take until
early Friday morning to clear the eastern counties. However,
waning instability should result in diminishing convection by
late evening in both coverage and intensity. The backdoor cold
front is progged push west of the entire forecast area by late
tonight. A moist easterly flow off of the Atlantic should result
in widespread stratus along and east of the Appalachians
tonight with patchy drizzle possible where the flow ascends the
higher terrain of Central PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Upper level ridging argues for mainly dry weather Friday.
However, model soundings indicate the moist southeast flow off
the Atlantic will keep the stratus and patchy drizzle locked in
over all but the western edge forecast area. Undercutting NBM
max temps again Friday appears a good bet based on the
expectation of low clouds and the aforementioned warm bias in
CAD scenarios. Diurnal heating in the vicinity of the stalled
backdoor front could yield an isolated Friday PM shower/tsra
along and west of the Allegheny Divide.

The stalled front over Western PA is progged to lift back
eastward as a warm front Saturday in response to an upstream
trough over the Grt Lks. The cold front linked to the upper
trough should then traverse the region Sat PM, accompanied by
widespread showers/tsra. Latest ensemble plumes indicate areal
average rainfall of around a half inch is most likely, but
progged instability and high PWATs support significantly higher
localized amounts.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
All guidance shows a cold front tracking through the region
Saturday night and Monday morning which will lead to showers
and thunderstorms. Mostly dry conditions are expected behind the
front, though a secondary cold front will move through Sunday
night. This frontal passage appears mostly dry, though there
could be an increase in cloud cover and a few showers across the
northwest.

High pressure builds in behind this secondary front on Monday and
will provide a taste of fall with dry weather and much cooler
temperatures into the middle of next week. High temperatures
will range from the mid 60s across the northern tier to the mid
to upper 70s in the southeast. Overnight lows will be 5 to 10
degrees below normal with Monday night looking the coldest as
the high pressure moving directly overhead will support mainly
clear skies and light winds.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Late evening update.

Main area of showers and storms near UNV, dropping southward
toward MDT. Expect most of the activity to taper off by
around Midnight.

Updated TAFS for current conditions.

00Z TAF package sent.

Still a lot of showers and storms across the north, just
west of IPT, and along the MD, PA line. While the activity
could taper off sooner,  used a TEMPO group until 04Z for
most of the area, as dewpoints are high, and storms could
be slow to die off.

Overnight the issue is lower CIGS and visibilities.

Expect less chance of showers and storms on Friday, as
dewpoints will be a bit lower.

Expect much of the day will feature IFR and MVFR conditions.
A brief window of VFR conditions will be possible late aft.

Not much change for Saturday, main improvement will be later
Sunday into Monday, as the cold front moves southeast of the
area.

Outlook...

Fri PM-Sat...Restrictions likely with BKN-OVC skies and chc
showers/storms.

Sun...Lingering showers, drier air moving in late.

Mon and Tuesday...VFR with clear skies and light winds.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for PAZ012-018-019-
026>028-035-036-041-045-046-049>052-056-063.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Lambert
NEAR TERM...Lambert
SHORT TERM...DeVoir/Fitzgerald
LONG TERM...Lambert/Bauco
AVIATION...Martin/Bowen

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
1040 PM EDT Thu Aug 29 2024

PAZ004>006-010-011-017-024-025-033-034-037-042-053-057>059-065-066-
310245-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Clearfield-Cambria-Blair-Somerset-
Bedford-Tioga-Sullivan-Columbia-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-York-
Lancaster-
1040 PM EDT Thu Aug 29 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds, hail and heavy
downpours are possible in a few spots Saturday afternoon or evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ064-310245-
Adams-
1040 PM EDT Thu Aug 29 2024

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 663 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds, hail and heavy
downpours are possible in a few spots Saturday afternoon or evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ027-028-056-063-310245-
Mifflin-Juniata-Perry-Cumberland-
1040 PM EDT Thu Aug 29 2024

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 663 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds, hail and heavy
downpours are possible in a few spots Saturday afternoon or evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ036-310245-
Franklin-
1040 PM EDT Thu Aug 29 2024

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds, hail and heavy
downpours are possible in a few spots Saturday afternoon or evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ012-018-019-026-035-041-045-046-049-051-052-310245-
Northern Clinton-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Huntingdon-Fulton-
Northern Lycoming-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Montour-
Northumberland-
1040 PM EDT Thu Aug 29 2024

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds, hail and heavy
downpours are possible in a few spots Saturday afternoon or evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ050-310245-
Snyder-
1040 PM EDT Thu Aug 29 2024

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 663 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds, hail and heavy
downpours are possible in a few spots Saturday afternoon or evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service State College PA
1009 PM EDT Thu Aug 29 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0953 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 W Thompsontown        40.56N 77.29W
08/29/2024                   Juniata            PA   911 Call Center

            Multiple wires down onto roadways in the
            vicinity of Country Legend Drive.

&&

NPB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service State College PA
1019 PM EDT Thu Aug 29 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0947 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 SSW Mcalisterville    40.59N 77.30W
08/29/2024                   Juniata            PA   911 Call Center

            Roof blown off of a residence with multiple
            wires down. Car trapped between two live
            wires on the roadway.

&&

NPB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
1028 PM EDT Thu Aug 29 2024

PAZ028-056-300300-
Perry PA-Juniata PA-
1028 PM EDT Thu Aug 29 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL JUNIATA AND CENTRAL
PERRY COUNTIES THROUGH 1100 PM EDT...

At 1028 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 16
miles north of Carlisle. This thunderstorm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Newport, New Bloomfield, Ickesburg, Loysville, Thompsontown, and
Landisburg.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Very heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM EDT for
central and south central Pennsylvania.

&&

LAT...LON 4045 7741 4058 7726 4046 7701 4029 7728
TIME...MOT...LOC 0228Z 304DEG 3KT 4044 7725

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Bauco

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service State College PA
1038 PM EDT Thu Aug 29 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1006 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     4 WSW Thompsontown      40.55N 77.30W
08/29/2024                   Juniata            PA   911 Call Center

            Large tree on blocking portions of William
            Penn Highway.

&&

NPB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service State College PA
1041 PM EDT Thu Aug 29 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1032 PM     Flash Flood      2 WSW Thompsontown      40.56N 77.27W
08/29/2024                   Juniata            PA   911 Call Center

            Three feet of water along Locust Run at
            William Penn Highway.

&&

NPB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service State College PA
1046 PM EDT Thu Aug 29 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1010 PM     Flash Flood      1 NNE Mcalisterville    40.64N 77.27W
08/29/2024                   Juniata            PA   911 Call Center

            Basement collapse and flooding with basement
            walls collapsing.

&&

NPB