Special Weather Statement, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
853 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 845 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

The 00Z KCRP sounding reveals a very unstable environment across
the region. As the cold front moves closer, convection will begin
to develop across the Brush Country. Storms are likely to develop
into a line and move east across the CWA. Very large hail and
damaging winds are the main threats. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch
is now in effect for the entire region through 4 AM Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 202 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

Key Messages:

▶ Marginal/Slight Risk for Severe thunderstorms Tonight.

▶ High chance for critical fire weather conditions Wednesday
afternoon/evening for the Brush Country and Western Coastal Plains.

▶ Minor Coastal Flooding possible tonight during times of high tide

Skies are clearing from west to east this afternoon with
temperatures warming into the mid 90s out west. This has resulted
in high instability across the brush county with CAPEs over 4000
j/kg and little CAP. Mesoscale sector 1 minute satellite imagery
shows a few popcorn cumulus developing out west, but nothing with
any vertical structure. If convective temperatures are reached,
storms could quickly develop. Models do prog a weak s/w to enter
the western counties late this afternoon which could enhance lift.
All that said, none of the guidance or convective allowing models
(CAMS) show any precip this afternoon.

Convection is forecast to be focused along the approaching cold
front which is expected to cross the Rio Grande late this evening.
The boundary is expected to move into an area with an increasing
CAP, but moderate to strong instability, 50kts of shear and
beneigh a strongly difluent split upper jet configuration. SPC has
highlighted our entire CWA in a Slight Risk for severe
thunderstorms including the threat for large hail, damaging winds
and isolated Tornados. They also expanded the hatched area for
hail to cover our entire area indicating a potential for 2" or
greater hail.

Storms should exit the area late tonight with northwest winds
developing in it wake and gradually clearing skies. Wednesday will
be windy and dry with northwest winds gusting to 45 mph. Thus have
issued a Wind Advisory for the western half of the forecast area
as well as Red Flag Warnings. High temperatures Wednesday will not
be as hot ranging from the upper 70s east to mid 80s west.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 202 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

Key Messages:

▶ High chance of elevated to critical fire weather conditions
lingers into Wednesday evening for the Coastal Bend, Coastal Plains
and Brush Country. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect from 10 AM
through 11 PM Wednesday.

Windy and dry conditions will persist Wednesday night, with critical
fire weather conditions likely to linger, therefore, a Fire Weather
Watch is currently in effect from 10 AM through 11 PM Wednesday
evening. Winds will diminish overnight as surface high pressure
settles in over South Texas, bringing cooler overnight temperatures.
By Thursday, a mid-level ridge will build over the area and persist
into early next week. Temperatures will warm through the weekend,
reaching into the mid 80s and upper 90s by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 617 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

VFR conditions are present at all terminals with the exception of
VCT where a MVFR deck has just moved in. ALI/CRP/VCT are all
expected to fall to MVFR/IFR over the next few hours and remain
MVFR through mid morning. The main concern tonight will be the
threat of strong to severe thunderstorms. Storms will begin to
develop across the Brush Country over the next few hours. A line
of storms will move east over night impacting LRD/COT from 04-08Z,
ALI/CRP from 06-10Z, and VCT from 07-11Z. Gusty northwesterly
winds will develop through the morning hours with gusts from 30-40
knots possible. Winds will slowly weaken during the evening hours
Wednesday

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 202 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

Moderate to strong onshore flow will weaken this evening ahead of
a cold front that will move off the coast Wednesday morning with
strong northwest winds developing in its wake. Scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms can be expected along the
front. A few severe storms will be possible with large hail and
damaging winds. Offshore winds relax on Thursday and become
onshore again on Friday. Weak to moderate onshore flow is
anticipated through the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 202 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

Strong northwest winds will develop Wednesday morning and persist
through Wednesday evening. Northwest winds 20-30 mph with gusts to
45 mph will be possible given the strong cyclonic flow and 50
knots low level yet on the backside of the exiting low pressure
system. Afternoon humidity values will drop to 30% or less across
the brush country and western coastal plains where watches have
been upgraded to Red Flag Warnings. Elsewhere elevated fire danger
is expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    64  84  55  85 /  70   0   0   0
Victoria          63  78  52  81 /  90  10   0   0
Laredo            61  85  55  87 /  50   0   0   0
Alice             61  84  53  85 /  60   0   0   0
Rockport          65  82  60  82 /  70  10   0   0
Cotulla           61  84  53  87 /  40   0   0   0
Kingsville        63  84  54  85 /  60   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       67  83  62  82 /  70   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ229>231-
     239>244-342>344-442-443.

     Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ229>231-
     239>244-342>344-442-443.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for GMZ270-275.

&&

SHORT TERM...TC/95
LONG TERM....NP
AVIATION...TC

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