Severe Thunderstorm Warning 2, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
515 PM CST Fri Feb 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 243 PM CST Fri Feb 2 2024

Key Messages:

- There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms tonight through
early Saturday morning.

- There is a marginal risk of excessive rainfall north and east of
I-37 late tonight through early Saturday morning.

- Elevated Fire Weather conditions Saturday across the Brush Country.

A Pacific cold front will bring scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms to South Texas late tonight through Saturday
morning. The main concern will be the marginal chance for severe
thunderstorms and heavy rainfall ahead and along the front.

The Storms Prediction has S TX in a marginal risk for severe
thunderstorms tonight through Saturday morning. The primary threat
will be large hail and damaging winds. A brief tornado can not be
ruled out. There is a slight risk of severe weather across the Hill
Country where dynamics will be more favorable.

The Weather Prediction center has a marginal risk of excessive
rainfall generally north and east of Interstate 37 tonight. With
deep moisture in place, some storms could produce heavy down
pours/high rainfall rates which could lead to localized flash
flooding. Widespread flooding is not anticipated as the system is
expected to move across the region quickly with rainfall totals
generally 1 inch or less across the Victoria Crossroads and less
than 1/2 of an inch across the remainder of S TX.

An upper level trough draped from W TX to the Pacific NW this
afternoon, is forecast to deepen and become cutoff as it moves
across the TX Panhandle tonight. A NW flow across northern Mexico
will eject a short wave around the base of the upper low and across
S TX this evening, then the main trough axis shifts across the
region overnight and pushes a Pacific cold front through S TX. The
environment this afternoon is moderately unstable, but capped at
around 850mb. This cap is the questionable factor in just how far
south the storms will develop. The instability will be modest
tonight with CAPE between 400-800J/kg. The upper support will be the
driving factor for storms to develop due to a strong upper level jet
approaching from the northwest and placing S TX in the favorable
Left Front Quadrant. In addition, ahead of the boundary will be
strong low level moisture convergence. PWATs are progged to increase
to 1.4-1.5 inches which is in the 99th percentile. The capping
inversion is progged to weaken, but does not completely erode. Model
sounding do show mid level instability, thus the storms may be
elevated rather than surface based.

Several models indicate a couple of rounds of storms with the first
wave developing this evening as the embedded short wave tracks east.
This initially starts in Mexico and moves into the Rio Grande Plains
sometime between 01-03Z. As the main trough tracks east and the
front pushes into S TX, a second round quickly follows behind the
first round. This round is progged to develop across the Hill
Country with the tail end extending southward into the northern
Brush Country and Coastal Plains. The northern CWA, especially the
Victoria Crossroads, has the best chance of thunderstorms and heavy
rainfall overnight with PoPs 60-80%. The remainder of S TX has a 40-
60% chance.

The front and associated convection are expected to exit to the east
between 6AM-9AM Saturday. Drier airmass will filter into S TX and
winds will become moderate from the west and northwest. This
combination will lead to elevated fire weather conditions across the
Rio Grande Plains and Brush Country, briefly Saturday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 243 PM CST Fri Feb 2 2024

Key Messages:

- Medium to high (40-80%) chance of Wind Advisory conditions Sunday.
Medium chance of Gale conditions Sunday through Monday. A Gale Watch
may be needed.

- Medium to high (50-80%) chance of Elevated to Critical Fire
Weather conditions. Fire Weather Watch in effect from Sunday morning
through Sunday evening.

Dry and windy conditions will prevail on Sunday following the
passage of a cold front with an associated Pacific Low. A potent
upper level jet streak is expected to mix towards the surface,
increasing the potential for the northwesterly winds behind the
front to reach 20-30 knots, with gusts up to 45 knots possible.
These strong winds combined with low relative humidity have led to
decent confidence in the presence of Elevated to Critical Fire
Weather conditions on Sunday. Therefore, a Fire Weather Watch is in
effect from 9 AM to 9 PM on Sunday for areas south and west of I-37.
Any moisture gained from expected rainfall Friday/Saturday in
addition to the rainfall received last week should combat the threat
for large wildfires that are resistant to control. However, due to
the robust winds and low atmospheric moisture, if any fires do
occur, they could have low to moderate resistance to control.

The dry weather continues through mid-week before light to moderate
onshore flow returns. This increase in moisture coupled with modeled
mid-level disturbances could pose a low potential for some rain by
late next week. Near normal temperatures and mostly clear skies will
be prevalent, before a gradual warming by Thursday/Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 508 PM CST Fri Feb 2 2024

VFR conditions and gusty southeasterly winds can be seen across
all terminals. Ceilings will gradually lower to MVFR over the next
few hours as low level moisture increase. We are beginning to see
some convective activity along the Rio Grande as a front nears
the region. This activity will increase in coverage and spread
east through the night. Reduced visibilities and gusty winds are
possible with any passing shower and storm. There will be 2
potential rounds of storms overnight. The first round of storms
will clear the coast by 10Z. A second line will swing through
between 10-14Z, generally impacting COT/CRP/VCT. A few of these
storms may reach severe levels, capable of producing large hail
and damaging winds. Convection will be east of the region by mid
morning with VFR conditions and north-northwesterly winds settling
into the region.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 243 PM CST Fri Feb 2 2024

Onshore flow will increase to moderate levels across the nearshore
waters and moderate to strong across the offshore waters after
midnight. There is a Small Craft Advisory in effect for the offshore
waters overnight. A cold front will approach the Middle Texas
Coastal Waters early Saturday morning resulting in winds briefly
decreasing. Behind the cold front, a moderate west to northwest flow
will develop. Showers and thunderstorms are expected tonight and
Saturday morning ahead and along the cold front. Moderate
offshore flow develops Saturday afternoon in the wake of showers
and storms associated with a passing cold front. Northwesterly
winds Saturday night will strengthen on Sunday to range between
20-30 knots, with gusts between 40-45 knots. There is currently a
medium chance of winds gusting to Gale Sunday through the day
Monday over the offshore waters. A Gale Watch may be needed. Winds
will gradually decrease below 20 knots by late Monday evening.
Light to moderate onshore flow will return mid- week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    62  76  52  75 /  70  50   0   0
Victoria          60  74  49  69 /  80  70   0   0
Laredo            58  78  53  78 /  40   0   0   0
Alice             60  77  50  76 /  60  30   0   0
Rockport          60  73  54  72 /  70  70   0   0
Cotulla           55  76  52  76 /  70   0   0   0
Kingsville        62  77  50  76 /  60  20   0   0
Navy Corpus       61  73  55  73 /  80  50   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
     for TXZ229>231-239>243.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 AM CST Saturday
     for GMZ270-275.

&&

SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....KRS
AVIATION...TC/95