Red Flag Warning 4, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
Issued by National Weather Service Melbourne FL
220 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 219 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024

Key Messages:

-Breezy/gusty post-frontal northerly winds on Wednesday.

-Deteriorating marine conditions following the front, possibly
 Gales late Wednesday.

Current-Wednesday Night...Very warm across the region this
afternoon, pre-frontal conditions, with variable cloudiness and
breezy/gusty southerly winds especially across the Coastal Bend
and Victoria Crossroads. Afternoon temperatures should realize
U70s to L80s near the coast with readings well into the 80s and
90s further inland, for portions of the Brush Country and Rio
Grande Plains. Relief will come with a cold front forecast to move
across the coverage warning area Wed morning and early afternoon.
Overnight lows generally in the 60s areawide - warmest in the
Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains (U60s) and coolest across the
Victoria Crossroads (L60s). Highs Wed significantly cooler for
most, post-frontal, with 80s across the Brush Country and Rio
Grande Plains and 70s for much of the Victoria Crossroads and
Coastal Bend. Southerly winds tonight will shift to out of the
north/northeast behind the boundary. While wind speeds will
diminish to light/variable overnight, they will increase 15-25
mph with frequent higher gusts from late morning into the
afternoon on Wed. Wind speeds will remain elevated 10-15 mph with
some higher gusts Wed overnight. Overnight mins will be much
cooler Wed night, as well, with 50s areawide. Poor relative
humidity recovery is expected Wed night.

Dry conditions forecast through the period with much drier air
advecting across the area behind the front. Elevated to Critical
fire weather conditions will be possible, especially across the Rio
Grande Plains and western Brush Country. Unimpressive ERC values
are the main curbing factor in terms of confidence.

A weather concern we will have to watch for tonight is fog
development ahead of the approaching cold front. There is a chance
that some dense fog may develop down to around 1/4 quarter of a
mile, especially across the Coastal Plains and Victoria
Crossroads. We continue to cap visibility grids at 2 miles for now
to show patchy to areas of fog and will allow future forecast
shifts to adjust accordingly with increasing confidence. Over the
bays and near shore waters there is increasing confidence in
development of dense (sea) fog. While much of this fog is not
expected to move inland, the exception may be for portions of the
Victoria Crossroads due to the southerly flow.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 219 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024

Thursday-Friday...A mid-level trough lifts northeastward across the
central CONUS Thursday and Friday. At the surface high pressure
moves into the southeast U.S. and off the Atlantic coast. A broad
surface disturbance across the Texas Gulf waters increases moisture
across the region Thursday. PWATs increase to around 1.25" across
coastal counties Thursday afternoon into the evening, within the
90th climatological percentile. A weak surface boundary moves across
east Texas Thursday evening into Friday. While the greatest focus of
precipitation is forecast across the Gulf waters, there will be a
slight chance for showers and occasional lightning storms across
eastern counties Thursday afternoon into Friday as the Gulf
disturbance nudges northeastward and the surface boundary moves
across the local area. Northeast winds around 10 mph Thursday
afternoon diminish some on Friday before veering southward Friday
night. High temperatures become noticeably cooler Thursday, widely
ranging the low to mid 60s. Temperatures warm to range the 70s on
Friday, nearing 80 degrees across the far western La Salle and Webb
counties.

Saturday-Monday...Dry weather is forecast through the weekend.
MinRH values near sensitive fire thresholds (~30%) across western
Webb and La Salle each afternoon. Global models hint at rainfall
returning across the local area as early as Monday evening as the
next cold front sweeps across the central U.S. and a 500mb
shortwave traverses south Texas. High temperatures mostly in the
mid to upper 80s, remaining cooler closer to the coast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 219 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024

Breezy/gusty winds for the remainder of the afternoon with
gradual diminishing thru the evening, becoming light/variable
after midnight. There remains a threat for a reduction in
CIGs/VSBYs late overnight/early Wed resulting in IFR and possibly
LIFR (dense fog) conditions. LLWS is expected towards the the tail
end of the TAF forecast for KLRD ahead of an approaching cold
front. Early morning fog and low ceilings should improve to VFR by
mid morning Wednesday. Breezy/gusty N/NE winds will develop
behind the front for Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 219 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024

Tonight-Wed Night...Hazardous boating conditions into this evening
with stout (gusty) southerly winds building seas 5-8 ft. Winds do
begin to diminish this evening/overnight and early Wed, but a
strong cold front will pass across the waters on Wed, with
northerly and gusty winds increasing Wed afternoon-night, and seas
will respond by building Wed night. Will initiate a new Small
Craft Advisory areawide to go into effect 18Z/12PM on Wed
continuing thru the remainder of the period and beyond. Gusts to
Gale Force will be a concern especially offshore, especially Wed
evening.

Also tonight, over the bays and near shore waters there is
increasing confidence in development of dense (sea) fog. Future
marine statements and perhaps a Dense Fog Advisory may be
necessary.

Thursday-Saturday...Northeast winds around 20-25 kts on Thursday
morning gradually diminish through the day. Lighter southeast winds
on Friday and Saturday veer eastward each night. Seas between 6-7 ft
far offshore subside through the period becoming 3-4 ft by Friday
night. Scattered to numerous showers are forecast to persist across
the local waters through Friday night. Isolated lightning storms
possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    91  65  79  56 /   0   0   0   0
Victoria          84  62  72  51 /   0  10   0   0
Laredo            97  67  85  54 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             94  64  80  53 /   0   0   0   0
Rockport          79  64  77  55 /   0   0   0   0
Cotulla           95  67  79  52 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        92  64  79  55 /   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       81  65  75  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from noon Wednesday to 9 PM CST Thursday
     for GMZ231-232-236-237-250-255-270-275.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CST this evening for GMZ250-255.

     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM CST Wednesday for GMZ270-275.

&&

SHORT TERM...TES
LONG TERM....ZL
AVIATION...TES