Gale Warning 3, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1027 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 256 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024

Key Messages:

- Medium chance (20-60%) of freezing rain across the northern Brush
Country into the Victoria Crossroads Sunday night into Monday morning

- Winter Weather Advisory in effect from tonight to tomorrow evening

- Freeze Warning and Wind Chill Warnings and Advisories in effect
from this evening to tomorrow evening

So far nothing has changed with this forecast package. The cold
front that is ushering in the coldest air of the season is
through the forecast area but the initial cold air along our
border with the BRO CWA is rather shallow so the temperature
haven't cooled much there. The low level moisture associated with
the front has produce a layer of stratus/stratocu that is helping
to keep the temperatures down in the 40s and 50 currently. As we
head into tonight, the low level cool air and moisture will begin
the push south again. The cold air moving out of the the Hill
Country of central Texas where temperatures have been in the 30s
all day will make their move into the Brush Country and Victoria
Crossroads this evening and then into the Rio Grande Plains and
Coastal Plains after midnight. As the temperatures drop, the
moisture trapped under the inversion will continue to increase and
it looks like we get into a drizzle/light rain situation. The QPF
is light (<0.05") but if the surfaces can cool enough, then a
patchy glaze is possible, especially on bridges and overpasses.
The areas of precipitation that are more likely will be toward the
north (northern Brush Country, Victoria Crossroads), where more
of the wintry precipitation is expected. Monday, the the below
freezing temperatures and light rain/drizzle will continue in the
east, as the high builds into the region, and dries out the Rio
Grande Plains, before heading for the coast. So there could be
patchy freezing drizzle into the afternoon before the drier air
pushes it offshore. Then we just have cold temperatures that go
into Monday night, as the cold air continues to drain south into
the region. Low temperatures Tuesday morning are expected to fall
to around 20 in the northern Brush Country, and the Victoria
Crossroads, and mid-20s elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 256 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024

The long term has only minor changes from the previous issuance.
Temperatures will begin in the 20s across the region Tuesday morning
in the wake of the Arctic air pushing into the area. Highs will
struggle to reach upper 30s to mid 40s during the day Tuesday. One
big impact during the day to watch will be the Wind Chill due to
values of teens to single digits expected through at least Wednesday
morning. In response to this, we have extended our Wind Chill
Advisory through 10 AM Wednesday. Though the potential for other
hazards to be extended is possible they will not be extended during
this forecast issuance. Temperatures will plunge to our coldest
expected temperatures for this event Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning. Lows will be in the teens to the north and in the Victoria
Crossroads with widespread 20s expected everywhere else. Due to this
a Freeze to Hard Freeze Warnings may be warranted, but like
previously mentioned those will not be issued at this time though it
likely will closer to the date. Warmer air will begin to advect into
the area beginning Wednesday though it will be most felt Thursday as
highs will return to the 70s. This will unfortunately this will be
short lived as another cold front will bring cooler temperatures to
the area Friday. Lows will be back around freezing Friday night
before rebounding through the next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1015 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024

MVFR ceilings have moved in across South Texas. Patchy fog and
temperatures a little below freezing are being seen at COT, so
would not be surprised if some freezing fog or freezing drizzle
develop within the next hour or two. Freezing temperatures with
are expected at all terminals tonight, with a moderate chance for
freezing precipitation late tonight into Monday morning. Ceilings
could drop to IFR during the times of expected precipitation. Expect
most precipitation will be done by around 18Z, with some
lingering showers and drizzle along the coast and over the
Victoria Crossroads. MVFR conditions are expected to prevail,
though brief IFR conditions are possible throughout the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 256 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024

The northeast flow has strengthened, so that the coastal waters
will be at small craft advisory thresholds during the early
evening. Winds will continue to strengthen offshore so that they
will reach small craft later this evening. Isolated to scattered
showers are likely late tonight through Monday evening, mainly
across the Gulf waters. A surge of high pressure will move
through the region Tuesday morning. This will lead to a strong
northerly flow over the waters Tuesday morning through Tuesday
afternoon. As a result, a Gale Watch is now in effect for the the
bays and coastal waters. Winds will fall back into the Small Craft
Advisory range Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning.
Isolated to scattered showers will be possible over the offshore
waters through Tuesday afternoon. Winds will gradually regain an
onshore component by Wednesday afternoon. Another cold front moves
offshore Friday with another round of Small Craft Advisories
likely.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    31  37  27  40 /  20  30  10   0
Victoria          26  34  22  36 /  20  30   0   0
Laredo            31  42  28  41 /  20  10   0   0
Alice             29  37  25  39 /  20  30  10   0
Rockport          32  39  27  41 /  20  30  10   0
Cotulla           29  40  23  41 /  20  20   0   0
Kingsville        30  38  26  39 /  20  30  10   0
Navy Corpus       36  41  30  42 /  20  30  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Freeze Warning until noon CST Monday for TXZ229.

     Wind Chill Advisory until 11 AM CST Monday for TXZ229.

     Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Monday for TXZ229-230.

     Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for
     TXZ229-239-242>245-342>344-346-347.

     Wind Chill Watch from late Monday night through Wednesday
     morning for TXZ229>234-240>247-342>344-346-347.

     Freeze Warning until 3 PM CST Monday for TXZ230.

     Wind Chill Advisory until 3 AM CST Monday for TXZ230>234.

     Wind Chill Warning from 3 AM to noon CST Monday for TXZ230>234-
     245>247-346-347.

     Hard Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning
     for TXZ230>234-240-241-246-247.

     Freeze Warning until 6 PM CST Monday for TXZ231>234.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Monday for TXZ231>234-
     245>247-346.

     Freeze Warning from 3 AM to noon CST Monday for TXZ239.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to noon CST Monday for TXZ239-
     240.

     Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 3 PM CST Monday for TXZ240>243-342-
     343.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 3 PM CST Monday for
     TXZ241>243-342-343.

     Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 6 PM CST Monday for TXZ244-344-347.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 6 PM CST Monday for TXZ244-
     344-347.

     Freeze Warning until 6 PM CST Monday for TXZ245>247-346.

     Wind Chill Advisory until 3 AM CST Monday for TXZ245>247-346.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM CST Tuesday for GMZ231-232-236-
     237-250-255-270-275.

     Gale Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday afternoon for
     GMZ231-232-236-237-250-255-270-275.

&&

SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM....NP
AVIATION...LS/77