Gale Warning 2, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1213 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 308 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2024

Key Messages:

- Dense Fog Advisory in effect this morning.

- High Wind Watch, Fire Weather Watch and Gale Watch in effect
  from late tonight through Friday.

As anticipated, patchy to areas of fog have developed across
portions of the Coastal Plains early this morning. Visibilities
have plummeted to 1/4 mile inland requiring a Dense Fog Advisory
to be issued, which will remain in effect through 10 AM today.
Conditions are expected to improve thereafter, with the fog
quickly dissipating.

A strong shortwave trough will be transitioning from the Desert
Southwest today into the Southern Plains tonight pushing a strong
cold front across the area. The front is progged to reach our
northwestern zones around midnight, and then exit into our coastal
waters closer to 4-6 AM Friday. Although mostly rain-free
conditions are expected inland with this boundary, there are a few
hazards developing in its wake, mainly due to the strong offshore
flow and the very low humidity values developing behind it. A
High Wind Watch is in effect from late tonight through Friday
morning for wind gusts up to 60 MPH possible. In addition, there
is a Fire Weather Watch in effect from late tonight through
Friday afternoon for the strong winds and minimum relative
humidity values as low as 10-15%.

Conditions are expected to improve around mid to late afternoon
Friday with the winds decreasing as a surface high pressure
settles overhead.

In regards to the temperature forecast, today will be warm with
highs ranging from the lower 70s along the coast to the mid 80s
out west. Tonight, lows will drop into the 50s areawide, with
highs on Friday only climbing into the low to mid 60s. Partly to
mostly cloudy skies today and tonight will clear out behind the
front on Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 308 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2024

Key Message:

- High confidence in arctic air early next week, but timing
  uncertainties exist.

- Freezing temperatures, very cold wind chill values likely.

Behind the Friday cold front, temperatures Friday night will fall
into the 30s for much of the area under clear skies. Most locations
will remain above freezing Saturday morning, but low lying areas in
the northern Brush Country may see a brief period of sub-freezing
temperatures. Saturday will feature winds shifting back around to
the east and southeast resulting in a pleasant day with highs in the
60s and lower 70s and mostly sunny skies.

Sunday begins the real challenge of the extended period. NAM and
ECMWF have come in with an early frontal passage during the day
Sunday while the GFS and Canadian are Sunday night. Not really sure
which way to go on this right now as GFS has been pretty reasonable
and usually ECM has been catching up to it. Many ECM Ensemble
members are on board with the Sunday front, and nearly 50% of the
GFS members as well.  Will open the door in the forecast for a
cooler Sunday, but not going to go full on with the colder solutions
(upper 40s North, lower 50s South).  For now will blend into a mid-
upper 50s north and mid 60s south solution.  The uncertainty
continues Sunday night with how cold it will get by Monday morning.
Deterministic guidance keeps most of the area above freezing for
Monday morning, however ensemble guidance indicates up to a 50%
chance of below freezing temperatures for the northern part of the
area and lower probs south. If the NAM/ECM solutions for Sunday work
out, could see these probs a bit higher, but for now will keep
freezing temps for the northern Coastal Plains/Brush Country and the
Victoria Crossroads for Monday morning.

Confidence is higher through the rest of this event as the signal
for very cold temperatures with arctic air sinking in has been
strong for several days. Guidance continues to indicate a 50% or
greater chance of below freezing temperatures area wide Tuesday and
Wednesday mornings with a medium chance of lows at or below 25
degrees, especially for northern areas. High temperatures likely
remain in the 40s for much of the area Monday and Tuesday. There is
a medium chance that high temps in the Victoria Crossroads dont top
40 degrees both of these days. In addition to the cold temperatures,
moderate to strong northerly winds Monday through Tuesday will lead
to very cold wind chill values area wide - in the 20s and lower 30s
during the daytime periods and the teens and 20s overnight.

Surface ridge shifts east by Wednesday and will allow temperatures to
moderate. We'll remain below normal, but gradually warm through late
in the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1154 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2024

Have a mix of MVFR/VFR conditions across the TAF sites currently.
Expecting VFR conditions to prevail this afternoon with strong
gusty winds from the south up to around 20-25 kts. A cold front
moving through the region will shift winds to the northwest early
Friday morning with winds increasing gusts up to around 30-35 kts.
Low chance for precipitation (<10%) but no lightning is expected.
Some models indicating <50% chance for fog but have left out of
TAF's as strong winds should inhibit fog formation. Some MVFR to
IFR CIG's are possible so have added an amendment to the VCT TAF's
but not confident enough to add to other sites.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 308 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2024

A moderate southerly flow will develop across the coastal waters
today, before increasing to a strong flow in the evening. A cold
front will move across the waters late tonight into Friday morning
with a very strong northwesterly flow developing in its wake.
Gale conditions are expected over the coastal waters beginning
late tonight with wind gusts up to 40 knots and wave heights up
to 12 feet on Friday. Onshore flow will return Saturday into
Sunday at light to moderate levels. Another cold front will move
through the area Sunday or Sunday night bringing a return to
strong offshore flow as well as bringing cold temperatures.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    77  56  65  40 /   0   0   0   0
Victoria          76  51  61  33 /   0  10   0   0
Laredo            81  54  66  39 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             79  52  66  37 /   0   0   0   0
Rockport          74  54  66  47 /   0   0   0   0
Cotulla           81  50  65  36 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        78  55  65  37 /   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       74  57  67  48 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Wind Watch from late tonight through Friday morning for
     TXZ229>232-239>244-342-343-442-443.

     Fire Weather Watch from late tonight through Friday afternoon
     for TXZ229>234-239>247-342>347-443-447.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 AM CST Friday
     for GMZ231-232-236-237-250-255-270-275.

     Gale Watch from late tonight through Friday afternoon for GMZ231-
     232-236-237-250-255-270-275.

&&

SHORT TERM...ANM
LONG TERM....PH
AVIATION...BF/80