Flash Flood Warning 23, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
105 PM CDT Fri Nov 1 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Fri Nov 1 2024

Scattered showers are ongoing across Brush Country with more
isolated showers and storms across the rest of the region. Expect
similar conditions to continue through the evening before most
activity diminishes around sunset. An increase in coverage of some
showers and isolated storms is expected once again late tonight
into Saturday morning as moisture remains abundant across the
region. Precipitation chances largely end by Saturday afternoon.

Temperatures will continue to remain above normal for this time of
year with highs Saturday expected to range from the mid-80s to the
lower 90s.

A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect through tonight with
areas near Port Aransas most likely to see any potential coastal
flooding issues.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Fri Nov 1 2024

Key Messages:

- Coastal flooding expected to continue through early next week

A mid-level trough moving across the Central Plains early next week
will lead to the development of a surface low near the Great Lakes.
The associated cold front will push south into Texas, reaching into
South Texas sometime Tuesday. Guidance is firming up a bit leading
to higher confidence in the front stalling offshore Tuesday night
before retreating back to the north as a warm front on Wednesday.
Moisture will be sufficient for at least a low chance of showers and
thunderstorms ahead of the front Monday night through Tuesday night.

I know I said the magic words "Cold Front," but this first front is
not likely to drop our temperatures significantly. Temperatures will
be seasonable behind the front, but drier air moving in should help
us feel a little more comfortable. Seasonable temperatures will
remain through the end of the week when another, potentially
stronger cold front will approach the area. Model guidance is still
not in good agreement with this front, so this will be something we
continue to watch and hope for.

Additionally minor coastal flooding is likely during high tides
early next week, with P-ETSS guidance showing tide levels rising to
around 2.5 feet above MSL, supporting increased confidence in minor
flood potential.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Fri Nov 1 2024

VFR conditions will continue through the rest of today outside of
any showers/storms. Brief MVFR/IFR conditions are possible with
any precipitation. CIGs will lower overnight (05-07Z) for most
locations and will lead to a return of MVFR to IFR conditions and
possibly some LIFR conditions in fog for ALI and VCT.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Fri Nov 1 2024

Moderate to strong southeasterly flow will continue through Sunday
before winds increase to strong/very strong flow Sunday night into
Monday. Gusts could approach Gale Force before winds diminish to
more moderate to strong flow Monday night. There is a low to medium
(30-60%) chance of rain Sunday through the end of next week, with
the greatest chance for precipitation being Monday night through
Tuesday night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    73  85  74  87 /  20  20   0   0
Victoria          69  86  71  88 /  20  50  10  20
Laredo            74  90  74  92 /  20  10   0   0
Alice             71  87  71  90 /  10  20   0   0
Rockport          72  86  74  87 /  30  40  10  10
Cotulla           73  90  74  93 /  40  20   0  10
Kingsville        71  87  73  89 /  10  20   0   0
Navy Corpus       76  83  77  84 /  30  30   0  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ345-442-
     443-447.

GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...CLM/93
LONG TERM....LS/77
AVIATION...CLM/93

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