Flash Flood Warning 15, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
635 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024

Key Messages:

- Medium to high chance of showers and thunderstorms through Friday.

- Slight to Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall and flash flooding through
  tonight.

- Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall and flash flooding Friday
  through Friday night.

The short-term continues to promote rainy conditions today and
Friday. A mid- to upper-level trough over South Texas is expected
to deepen further to the south-southwest. Some models indicate
the potential development of a cutoff low by late this morning or
early afternoon. The interaction of several shortwaves, combined
with abundance moisture from the Gulf of Mexico (PWATs 2.0 to 2.5
inches), will facilitate scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms through tomorrow.

The timing and location of these showers and storms still remains
a bit uncertain. High-resolution models suggest higher chances of
rain over the waters and along the Coastal Bend and Victoria
Crossroads, though areas west of HWY-281 may also experience
activity later today. Overnight, rain chances will persist, mainly
over area waters and the easternmost portions of the CWA. On
Friday, a similar pattern is expected, with showers and storms
primarily developing over the waters and along the Coastal Bend
and Victoria Crossroads, expanding westward as the day progresses.

Today, The Weather Prediction Center has now issued a Moderate
Risk (level 3 out of 4) for excessive rainfall and flash flooding
in parts of Calhoun, Refugio, Aransas and Victoria counties. A
Slight Risk (level 2 out of 4) applies to the remainder of the
Victoria Crossroads and portions of the Coastal Plains, while a
Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 4) covers the rest of South Texas.
On Friday, a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 4) will extend across
all of South Texas.

Out of an abundance of caution, we have decided to issue a Flood
Watch for Victoria, Calhoun, Refugio, and Aransas counties through
Friday evening. Forecast excessive rainfall may cause minor
flooding in urban areas, poor drainage zones, and low-lying
regions. Localized flash flooding is also possible in some areas.
Locations affected by entraining storms may face a higher risk of
flooding. Additionally there may be rises in rivers and small
streams.

Lastly, rainfall and cloud cover will result in cooler
temperatures in the short term. Highs will range from the mid-80s
to low 90s, with some northeastern locations experiencing
temperatures in the low 80s. Cloud cover will also keep nighttime
lows in the low to mid-70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024

Key Messages:

- Medium to high chance of showers and thunderstorms through Sunday

- Marginal risk of excessive rainfall through the weekend

- Minor risk of heat stress related impacts through the weekend,
becoming minor to moderate by early next week

A mid-level low and associated trough will continue to linger over
Texas through the weekend with deep tropical moisture (PWATs remain
around 2.0-2.5 inches) keeping showers and thunderstorms in the
forecast through Sunday. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has
included South Texas in a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall
through 12Z Monday. Training, slow moving showers could lead to some
isolated flash flooding concerns. Low pressure will shift out of the
area beginning Sunday, allowing high pressure to build in from the
east. Rain chances will finally begin to diminish Sunday night, with
only a few isolated showers and storms expected over the Victoria
Crossroads Monday and Tuesday afternoon.

As high pressure returns, so will our warmer temperatures.
Fortunately, highs will only rise just below to right at normal for
this time of year through the middle of the week. Conditions will
dry out early in the week, with PWATs dropping to below 2" by the
middle of the week. The combination of the warmer temperatures and
lingering moisture will lead to a moderate heat risk over portions
of South Texas early and through the middle of next week, with heat
index values approaching 110.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024
Showers and thunderstorms are currently moving across area waters
as well as easternmost portions of the Coastal Bend. This wet
pattern will continue through much of this TAF cycle. The highest
precipitation potential remains closer to the coast, but all sites
are expected to see at least some shower or convective activity
today. Showers and storms should begin to dissipate by sundown,
however isolated to scattered precipitation activity could linger
into the overnight hours. Uncertainty still exists for timing and
location for late evening and overnight precipitation. Mostly a
back and forth mix of VFR CIGs and VSBYs will be in place most of
the period, with MVFR conditions prevailing in and around
convection, along with gusty winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 235 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024

Weak to occasionally moderate onshore flow is expected through the
middle of the week. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
will persist through the weekend, diminishing early next week as
high pressure builds into the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    86  76  87  75 /  70  40  50  50
Victoria          83  73  85  73 /  90  50  70  40
Laredo            92  75  89  74 /  40  20  50  40
Alice             89  74  88  73 /  70  40  70  40
Rockport          89  76  89  76 /  90  60  50  50
Cotulla           93  74  91  75 /  40  20  50  30
Kingsville        87  76  88  74 /  70  40  60  40
Navy Corpus       86  78  87  77 /  80  50  50  50

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch through Friday evening for TXZ234-245>247-345>347-
     447.

GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...KRS/98
LONG TERM....LS/77
AVIATION...KRS/98

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