Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1202 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1156 AM CST Wed Jan 24 2024

Given the expected additional convection through the afternoon and
another round late evening into the overnight hours, have extended
the Flash Flood Watch through the night until 12Z Thu morning.
Also, expanded the watch farther west to include Live Oak, Duval
and Jim Wells counties due to previous rainfall over the last
several days leading to saturated soils.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 248 AM CST Wed Jan 24 2024

Ongoing showers and thunderstorms will likely continue along and
just south of a quasi-stationary front that extends from
northeast Mexico, through South Texas, and then further northeast.
As the boundary slowly lifts to the northeast, expect
thunderstorms will move northeast with it. This won't get us out
of the woods for strong to severe convection and locally heavy
rainfall. As the upper trough that has been responsible for the
gloomy weather we've been having begins to slide to the east this
afternoon and evening, more showers and thunderstorms will develop
over Mexico and move into the area. Relatively steep lapse rates
that and deep-layer shear could lead to strong to severe
thunderstorm development with large hail as the main threat
followed by strong wind gusts.

The upper trough will continue to move off to the northeast
through Thursday which will serve to diminish rain chances over
the area, leaving only isolated showers and thunderstorms along
the coast and scattered showers and thunderstorms over the waters
through Thursday afternoon.

While tidal levels continue to decrease (per P-ETSS), onshore
flow, swell periods of 8-9 seconds, and wave heights of 3-4 feet
could lead to water reaching up to the beach roads. Minor coastal
flooding is possible during times of high tide. With low
confidence, will leave the possibility of a Coastal Flood Advisory
to the next forecaster. A High Risk of Rip Currents is in effect
across Gulf-facing waters today.

Patchy fog has developed overnight, with visibility over some
of South Texas ranging from 1/2 SM to 3 SM. Currently have a
Special Weather Statement out until 8 AM but could see a Dense Fog
Advisory being needed closer to sunrise if the fog further
develops.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 248 AM CST Wed Jan 24 2024

Key Messages:

- Above normal temperatures through the end of the week with near
  normal temperatures over the weekend in the wake of a cool front.

- Fog is possible over much of South Texas Thu/Fri nights

Synopsis: A deepening trough draped across the Great Basin Thursday
night will spin up a low and kick it out southeast near the TX/OK
border before lifting northeast across the Plains. This will send a
cold front our way with FROPA expected Friday night/Saturday
morning. Conditions will be dry and settled across South Texas as a
northwest flow sets up behind this system. After this the models go
off the rails in agreement on the pattern. The Euro wants to keep a
trough whereas the GFS Carry's a ridge from the western CONUS
eastward towards the middle of next week. As the patterns progress
and despite having low confidence either scenario is not very
conducive for storms and lacks the uplift required so have opted to
stick with silent PoP's through all but the very beginning of the
period.

Hazards: Ahead of this weekends' front, conditions will be conducive
for radiational fog to form over land and for marine fog to form
over the waters. There's a slight chance (around 20%) for
visibilities to drop below 1 mile.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1141 AM CST Wed Jan 24 2024

A mix of MVFR and IFR conditions will persist today, becoming
IFR/LIFR this evening and overnight. Showers and thunderstorms are
currently developing across the Coastal Bend and Victoria
Crossroads. The convection is expected to wane by late
afternoon/early evening before another round of convection moves
eastward across S TX late evening into the overnight hours.
Conditions are expected to improve from west to east by late
Thursday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 248 AM CST Wed Jan 24 2024

A Marine Dense Fog Advisory is in effect through noon today with
visibility of 1 nm or less possible. Numerous showers and
thunderstorms, a few strong to severe, are expected today. A
Marginal Risk of Severe Weather is in effect today. Large hail,
strong winds, and even a brief waterspout will be possible.
Northeast to easterly weak flow veers offshore and increases to
weak to moderate early Saturday and persisting through early next
week. Then flow gradually turns back onshore and becomes weak
Monday. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected Thursday night through Friday with the development of
patchy to areas of sea fog possible over the Gulf Waters and Bays
Thursday night and Friday night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    73  57  71  55 /  60  40  10  20
Victoria          68  55  71  52 /  90  40  20  20
Laredo            71  56  74  56 /  30  30   0   0
Alice             72  56  72  54 /  40  40  10  10
Rockport          67  54  67  53 /  70  50  20  20
Cotulla           68  53  73  53 /  60  30   0   0
Kingsville        73  57  72  54 /  50  40  10  20
Navy Corpus       69  57  66  57 /  60  50  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch through late tonight for TXZ231>234-240>247-342>347-
     442-443-447.

     High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ345-442-
     443-447.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for GMZ231-232-
     236-237-250-255.

&&

SHORT TERM...TE/81
LONG TERM....BF
AVIATION...TE