Small Craft Advisory 56, NWS Cleveland, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
158 AM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over lower Michigan will drift east to Lake
Ontario by Sunday evening as a trailing cold front slowly crosses
the area tonight.  High pressure will build over the region in the
early to mid-week period.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
10:10 PM Update:
Any hazardous convection capable of producing flash flooding
and/or severe weather has exited. Unsettled weather will
continue the rest of the weekend as the closed/stacked low
drifts through the Great Lakes, with some lake enhanced showers
expected to begin developing and pushing east-southeast off the
lake tonight into early Sunday. Scattered to numerous showers
and some thunder will fill in elsewhere into Sunday.

Previous Discussion:
Convective activity has increased this afternoon and will persist
until about 00Z with some decrease thereafter. Effective wind shear
of 20-25 knots with MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/KG will allow the
activity to continue with some potential for strong to severe
wind and perhaps marginally severe hail mainly east of I-71.
Areas of heavy rain are likely along the lakeshore where storms
persist especially from Conneaut east into Erie County PA.

The region will be dominated by a slow moving low pressure over
the eastern Great Lakes through Sunday night. Somewhat of a
hybrid synoptic/lake enhanced rain event is expected. Scattered
to numerous showers and thunderstorms can be expected with peak
activity being diurnally driven in the afternoon and be mainly
north of US Route 30 and east of I-71. The heaviest rainfall
will be in the lakeshore counties from CLE east to ERI where
1-2.5" is possible with repeated activity.

More stable and drier air will filter into the region later
Sunday night. Lows tonight will be in the 60s with readings
about 5 degrees cooler Sunday night. Highs on Sunday will be in
the 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Surface low pressure and associated deep upper level trough will
continue to exit the Great Lakes region to the east on Monday. Broad
scale northwesterly flow, lingering low level moisture, and cooler
air aloft over a warm lake will allow for lingering lake enhanced
rain showers to persist early Monday morning through the afternoon
across Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. Large scale
subsidence under Canadian high pressure will allow for dry and quiet
conditions across the region through the remainder of the short term
period. Northerly flow through the short term will keep
temperatures below normal in the low to mid 70s for highs and upper
40s to lower 50s for overnight lows.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Quiet and dry weather will continue through the long term period as
the aforementioned high pressure gradually builds eastward across
the Great Lakes region and into the Mid Atlantic region through the
long term. Afternoon high temperatures during the period will begin
in the mid-70s while gradually warming to the mid 80s by Saturday.
Overnight low temperatures follow a similar trend as they begin near
50 degrees Wednesday night before settling in the mid to upper 60s
by Friday night.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Only isolated showers remain over Lake Erie currently, with
some isolated to scattered possible over the next few hours in
far Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania as the cold front
continues to move east across the area. Low stratus is expected
to develop over the next few hours with at least low MVFR
areawide and areas of IFR ceilings. IFR is most likely in the
typical central to east-central Ohio TAF sites such as KMFD,
KCAK, and KYNG. Any locations that do deteriorate to IFR
conditions should improve back to MVFR by mid-morning, with all
locations to VFR by 17-19Z as the stratus transitions to a
cumulus field with ceilings of 3500-5000 ft ceilings.

Isolated to scattered showers develop by mid-morning with
showers becoming more numerous in the afternoon/evening hours.
It's probable that there will be at least isolated embedded
thunderstorms within the numerous rain showers, however there
just wasn't enough confidence to target any particular area or
time with TSRA or VCTS. For now, went with long duration VCSH
for most TAF sites. Showers become less likely after sunset.

By this evening and tonight, MVFR ceilings are likely to develop
areawide, with some IFR ceilings possible along and east of I-71
after ~05Z.

Light winds out of the west and southwest strengthen to 8-12
knots during the afternoon hours. Winds gradually veer with
time, becoming more northwest by this afternoon and tonight.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms through
Monday mainly in the afternoon and early evening. Widespread
non-VFR appears most likely in low ceilings Sunday night into
Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Upper level low persists over the Great Lakes region through the
weekend while a surface low drags a cold front east through early
Sunday morning. Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots will keep wave
heights offshore and below 3 feet through the rest of today and into
Sunday afternoon. Winds turn northwesterly while increasing to 15-20
knots by late Sunday afternoon and 15-25 knots by Sunday evening.
This will allow for wave heights to build to 3-6 feet. Expect for
winds and waves to be above small craft criteria late Sunday night
through Tuesday afternoon/evening with a Small Craft Advisory and
Beach Hazards Statement likely needed through that time period.

Lingering surface troughing will persist across Lake Erie through
Monday morning before high pressure builds overhead Monday into
Tuesday. The high will allow for northerly winds to decrease to 10-
15 knots by Tuesday night. As the high builds east across the Great
Lakes region through next week, generally easterly winds behind the
aforementioned cold front will continue into Friday.

The aforementioned surface troughing coupled with cooler 850 mb
temperatures and a warm lake surface temperature will create an
environment favorable for waterspouts to develop from tonight
through the weekend.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LaPlante
NEAR TERM...LaPlante/Sullivan
SHORT TERM...Iverson
LONG TERM...Iverson
AVIATION...Saunders
MARINE...Iverson

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1133 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0352 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     16 NE Harbor View       41.83N 83.19W
08/17/2024  M45 MPH          LEZ162             OH   Mesonet

            Mesonet station THLO1 9 SSE Stony Point.

&&

PS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1139 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0820 PM     Marine Tstm Wind 1 NNW Fairport Harbor   41.76N 81.28W
08/17/2024  M42 MPH          Lake               OH   Buoy

            Lighthouse marine observation FAIO1
            Fairport, OH.

&&

PS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1143 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     Flood            Middleburg Heights      41.37N 81.82W
08/17/2024                   Cuyahoga           OH   Public

            Street flooding reported near I-71 and
            Bagley Road in Middleburg Heights. Water was
            several inches deep in the curb lanes and
            impeded traffic.

&&

JS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1146 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 PM     Flood            2 W Brooklyn Heights    41.42N 81.70W
08/17/2024                   Cuyahoga           OH   Public

            Video on social media shows at least 6 to 12
            inches of standing water near Brookpark Road
            and Broadview Road.

&&

JS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1209 AM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Parma                   41.38N 81.73W
08/17/2024                   Cuyahoga           OH   Public

            A couple of tree limbs downed in Parma.

&&

JS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1228 AM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 PM     Flash Flood      1 ENE Kent              41.16N 81.33W
08/17/2024                   Portage            OH   Public

            Photos received on social media show
            significant amounts of standing water at the
            Campus Pointe Apartments near Kent State,
            with water up to the tops of tires on some
            cars.

&&

JS