Severe Thunderstorm Warning 65, NWS Charleston, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
325 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain over the western Atlantic while a
surface trough lingers inland.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Weak mid-level lapse rates have limited convective development
despite fairly strong instability and ample moisture. The sea
breeze is only slowly beginning to push inland, having been
pinned near the coast by a prevailing offshore flow. The main
forcing mechanism is a potent shortwave in the CSRA, forecast to
move ENE through southern SC early this evening. This is driving
a more organized area of convection moving into our inland GA zones
at the moment. We will likely see continued pop-ups along the
sea breeze and outflow boundaries, but the greatest coverage
will likely be moving from west to east ahead of the shortwave.
It is uncertain how far east it will make it since we could be
losing daytime heating by the time it gets to the coast. In this
case, it would likely be in a diminishing state by the time it
reaches our coastal zones. The severe potential looks pretty low
given the lack of dry air aloft and weak lapse rates. However,
20-25 kt of bulk shear across the inland third of the area could
allow for some storm organization and an isolated severe storm.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The forecast area will remain between mid level ridging over the
Atlantic and fairly broad troughing to the west. At the surface,
high pressure resides offshore, with a weak trough inland. This set-
up will maintain a rich moisture feed into the area, with PWats
remaining over 2 inches through most of the period. Scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day given
the high moisture content and weak shortwave energy rotating through
at times, in addition to the typical mesoscale boundaries such as
the sea breeze. Highest coverage will be in the afternoon and
evening when instability is maximized, but some activity could
continue into the overnight. As is typical this time of year, a few
strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind
gusts are possible. Locally heavy rain is also possible.

High temperatures will average in the low to mid 90s with heat
indices peaking 100-105F in most locations, with some 105-108 values
closer to the coast. Lows span the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The offshore ridge looks to expand westward across the area midweek,
before likely weakening late week as a trough passes by to the
north. Diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms will be possible
each day. NBM continues to be aggressive in regards to PoPs in the
long term, so we opted to cap rain chances below 70%. Highs
generally top out in the upper 80s to lower 90s with lows in the
70s.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The main focus for the 18Z TAF period is pinning down timing and
location of convection. Showers and thunderstorms will increase
in coverage through the afternoon, though initially the best
coverage may be inland. We do not feel confident enough to do
more than a VCTS at any of the terminals this afternoon. Some
showers could continue into the evening hours as an upstream
convective complex moves through.

The risk for low stratus and/or fog late tonight is not
sufficient enough to show anything in the TAFs at this time.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Convection could produce brief flight
restrictions, especially each afternoon/evening.

&&

.MARINE...
S to SW flow will continue tonight with a slight wind speed
enhancement this evening as a nocturnal jet develops. A 10-15 kt
sea breeze in Charleston Harbor through early evening will
settle back to a 5-10 kt breeze overnight.

Sunday through Thursday: Typical summertime regime for the upcoming
week. South to southwest flow will persist through the period with
speeds 15 knots or less. The strongest winds will be along the coast
each afternoon as the sea breeze develops. We could also see a
slight wind enhancement along the coast overnight due to a nocturnal
jet. Seas will average 2-4 ft.

Rip Currents: A low-end moderate risk of rip currents is forecast
for Sunday due to the 2-3 ft swell period of 8-9 seconds, combined
with greater than normal tidal range and daytime onshore winds.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...ETM
LONG TERM...ETM
AVIATION...ETM/JRL
MARINE...ETM/JRL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston SC
255 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024

GAZ117-119-139-141-SCZ048>051-211900-
Coastal Bryan-Coastal Chatham-Coastal Liberty-Coastal McIntosh-
Beaufort-Coastal Colleton-Charleston-Coastal Jasper-
255 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024

...MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Georgia and
southeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Moderate Risk for Rip Currents.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter assistance is not anticipated at this time.

GAZ087-088-099>101-114>116-118-137-138-140-SCZ040-042>045-047-052-
211900-
Jenkins-Screven-Candler-Bulloch-Effingham-Tattnall-Evans-
Inland Bryan-Inland Chatham-Long-Inland Liberty-Inland McIntosh-
Allendale-Hampton-Inland Colleton-Dorchester-Inland Berkeley-
Inland Jasper-Tidal Berkeley-
255 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Georgia and
southeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter assistance is not anticipated at this time.

AMZ330-350-352-354-374-211900-
Charleston Harbor-
Waters from South Santee River to Edisto Beach SC out 20 NM-
Waters from Edisto Beach SC to Savannah GA out 20 NM-
Waters from Savannah GA to Altamaha Sound GA out 20 NM, including
Grays Reef National Marine Sanctuary-
Waters from Savannah GA to Altamaha Sound GA from 20 to 60 NM-
255 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter assistance is not anticipated at this time.

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