River Flood Warning 7, NWS Columbia, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
228 PM EST Tue Jan 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong storm system will move across the region today and
tonight. This storm system will produce very strong and gusty
winds, potential for significant severe thunderstorms and heavy
rain which could lead to river flooding. Dry weather returns for
Wednesday and Thursday with another strong low pressure system
expected for Friday and Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Impacts from the storm continue across the area today then
gradually subside tonight. A wind advisory remains in effect
from through 5 am Wednesday morning.

An ongoing line of convection is moving through the area. The
KCAE VAD wind profiler shows impressive hodographs with
plentiful 0-3 and 0-1 km SRH to support the tornado potential
that has been highlighted. The question will be instability, of
which there is limited just ahead of the line to this point.
A tornado watch remains in place for most of the area outside of
the Augusta metro with favorable shear environment. Regardless
damaging wind gusts have been widespread and will continue
through the Columbia area and east through the late afternoon
and evening.

Warm front has moved rapidly north of the area this morning with
dew points throughout the southern half of the forecast area
rising into the 60s. SPC mesoanalysis indicates winds around
925mb are up to around 60 knots with 850mb winds up to 70 knots.
As expected, stronger winds have been mixing down today with
numerous gusts above 40 mph to this point. This has led to
numerous damage reports across the forecast area outside of
storms. Wind advisory will be in place until 5am.

With anomalously high PWATs, convection with the line could see
rain rates between an 1 to 2 inches an hour. With the line
moving very quickly through the area, this is not expected to
cause widespread flash flooding issues, however, urban or poor
drainage areas could experience some lower end flooding. With
widespread moderate to heavy rain in the Upstate, however, river
flooding is expected by mid to late week. More info in the
hydrology section.

Winds remain strong and gusty behind the line of convection. As
the cold front moves east of the area this afternoon winds will
gradually begin subsiding however winds tonight will be
southwesterly around 20 mph with gusts around 30 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Surface high pressure builds into the Southeast U.S. on Wednesday
and persists into Thursday. A tight pressure gradient on Wednesday
will allow winds to remain in the 15 to 25 mph range with some gusts
to 30 mph. Winds diminish Wednesday Night through Thursday with the
surface high moving overhead.

Yet another powerful upper level trough takes aim at the Southeast
U.S. on Friday. There are similarities between this event and
the one which is occurring today, however at this time there are
also notable differences. The models are depicting a strong low
level jet (60 knots), but not as extreme as today (75 knots).
In addition, The Midlands and CSRA may be in a cold air wedge
for much of the event which would result in elevated versus
surface based instability. The best estimate at this time is for
showers and a chance of thunderstorms. SPC does have the region
outlooked for severe weather.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A powerful upper level trough should be departing the region Friday
Night. There is a high probability of showers and a low to moderate
probability of embedded thunderstorms along a cold front through
midnight. It should remain windy through Saturday behind this
system.

A fast zonal flow aloft persists into early next week. Another upper
level trough should dig into the Central U.S. toward the end of the
forecast period. Thankfully at this time it does appear to be as
powerful as its recent predecessors.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Restrictions along with very strong and gusty winds to dominate
the TAF period.

A line of storms continues to advance east with very strong
winds, even outside of thunderstorms with gusts up to 50 kts,
especially within convection, mainly at the Columbia and
Orangeburg terminals with the line of storms already through
Augusta, although winds continue to be strong. Restrictions
will continue to be widespread with improvements to MVFR
ceilings and improvements in visibility as drier air funnels
into the forecast area. Winds remain strong overnight but shift
out of the southwest to westerly. VFR improvements are likely
shortly after daybreak Wednesday.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Increasing confidence in
restrictions in showers and possibly thunderstorms along with
breezy and gusty winds return Friday and Friday night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Moderate to heavy rainfall is expected with the strong low pressure
system late tonight into Tuesday night. Rainfall amounts are
expected to range between 1.5 and 2.5 inches with locally
higher amounts possible. The highest amounts will be in the
western Midlands and northern CSRA with higher amounts expected
across the Upstate. The potential for flash flooding is
currently low, however the storm total rainfall is creating
moderate to high confidence in river flooding from the middle of
the week into next weekend. This is compounded by the forecast
for several inches of rain expected to fall in the headwaters of
our rivers.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Wind Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for GAZ040-063>065-
     077.
SC...Wind Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for SCZ016-018-
     020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
     Flood Watch until 10 PM EST this evening for SCZ016-115-116.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Columbia SC
307 PM EST Tue Jan 9 2024

GAZ040-063>065-SCZ018-102015-
Lincoln-McDuffie-Columbia-Richmond-McCormick-
307 PM EST Tue Jan 9 2024

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Midlands of South Carolina
and the Central Savannah River area of Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

A very strong and impactful low pressure system will march across
the eastern US this afternoon through tonight. Across the Midlands
of SC and CSRA of GA winds will continue to be very strong with
gusts around 45 mph. Strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging
winds and isolated tornadoes will also be possible through this
evening. Heavy rainfall is also expected which could lead to river
flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Elevated winds continue into Wednesday morning, a Lake Wind Advisory
may be needed.

Another storm system may bring strong winds and possibly severe
weather to the area Friday into Friday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

GAZ077-SCZ020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-135>137-102015-
Burke-Newberry-Fairfield-Kershaw-Edgefield-Saluda-Lexington-Richland-
Lee-Aiken-Sumter-Barnwell-Calhoun-Clarendon-Bamberg-
Northwestern Orangeburg-Central Orangeburg-Southeastern Orangeburg-
307 PM EST Tue Jan 9 2024

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
...TORNADO WATCH 5 IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Midlands of South Carolina
and the Central Savannah River area of Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.
   Tornado Watch.

A very strong and impactful low pressure system will march across
the eastern US this afternoon through tonight. Across the Midlands
of SC and CSRA of GA winds will continue to be very strong with
gusts around 45 mph. Strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging
winds and isolated tornadoes will also be possible late through this
evening. Heavy rainfall is also expected which could lead to river
flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Elevated winds continue into Wednesday morning, a Lake Wind Advisory
may be needed.

Another storm system may bring strong winds and possibly severe
weather to the area Friday into Friday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

SCZ016-115-116-102015-
Chesterfield-Northern Lancaster-Southern Lancaster-
307 PM EST Tue Jan 9 2024

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...TORNADO WATCH 5 IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Midlands of South Carolina
and the Central Savannah River area of Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.
   Flood Watch.
   Tornado Watch.

A very strong and impactful low pressure system will march across
the eastern US this afternoon and tonight. Across the Midlands of SC
and CSRA of GA winds will continue to be very strong with gusts
around 45 mph. Strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and
isolated tornadoes will also be possible through this evening. Heavy
rainfall is also expected which could lead to flash flooding and
river flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Elevated winds continue into Wednesday morning, a Lake Wind Advisory
may be needed.

Another storm system may bring strong winds and possibly severe
weather to the area Friday into Friday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

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