Tornado Warning 1, NWS Billings, MT

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
316 PM MDT Thu Jun 27 2024

.UPDATE...

Cold front has moved through Yellowstone and Musselshell counties,
pushing storms east of these areas. Therefore the Severe
Thunderstorm Watch has been cancelled for these two counties,
including the Billings and Roundup areas. Chambers

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Friday night...

Strong to severe thunderstorms are likely today as the
environment continues to become more favorable for storm
development. The early morning cloud cover cleared and
destabilization is well under way with adequate bulk shear and
upper level support in place. To the west, storms are already
initiating and moving into Wheatland, Sweet Grass, and Park
Counties. Additional storms are forecast to develop mainly north
and west of Billings during the early afternoon today ahead of the
front. This activity will move east through the afternoon and
early evening today, with the strongest storms expected to exit
eastern Montana between 6 and 8pm this evening. The main threats
remain large hail and damaging winds. Secondary threats include
brief heavy rains, frequent lightning, and the possibility of an
isolated tornado (chances for this remain low across our area).
The best chance for seeing any of these threats remains generally
north and east of Billings, especially along the MT/Dakotas state
line.

Friday will be a cooler day behind the front with high
temperatures remaining in the 60s and 70s. Breezy conditions will
develop across the area with 25 to 45 mph northwesterly wind gusts
common, strongest over the higher hills and along the western
foothills. Probabilities for wind gusts over 50 mph along the
western foothills remains low. Cyclonic flow will also keep low
chances of precipitation across portions of the area (10-50%
chances mainly north of Billings). Arends

Saturday through Thursday...

Ridging builds back over the region for the weekend bringing
mainly dry conditions for Saturday and most of Sunday. Highs look
to range from the 70s on Saturday to the 80s to 90s on Sunday,
highest over southeastern areas. Ensembles remain in good
agreement with another upper trough moving into the region by late
in the day Sunday, bringing shower and thunderstorm chances
through Monday (30-80% chance, highest over west and central
areas). Modest CAPE and deep layer shear as well as a good
moisture fetch over the area Sunday afternoon and evening could
produce strong to severe thunderstorms. Cyclonic flow lingering
over the area on Tuesday will bring a low chance (20%) for showers
and thunderstorms.

Uncertainty remains in the upper level pattern as we head towards
the middle of next week. Temperatures are forecast to range from
the 70s to 80s for Monday through Thursday. Arthur/STP

&&

.AVIATION...

A line of showers and thunderstorms will progress E, reaching KBIL
to KSHR between 19Z and 21Z. Scattered thunderstorms will also
develop ahead of this line, affecting KMLS between 21Z today to
00Z Friday. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will
affect the entire area through 00Z, then will decrease from W to E
through 06Z. Conditions in the storms will range from MVFR to
IFR, with locally lower conditions...especially E of KBIL. Large
hail up to 2 inches in diameter, along with wind gusts in excess
of 50 to 60 kt are possible with storms over the TAF sites with
the lowest chances of these conditions over KSHR. VFR will return
to the area late tonight and continue through Fri. morning. NW
winds will gust 20-35 kt behind a cold front that will pass
through the TAF sites through 00Z Friday. Winds will diminish this
evening, then become gusty again around 15Z Friday with gusts of
25 to 35 kt. Stronger wind gusts of 30 to 40 kt are expected Fri.
afternoon. Areas of mountain obscuration are expected through this
evening. Arthur

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 087 051/073 047/077 053/088 059/080 055/080 055/084
    4/T 21/N    00/U    01/B    57/T    32/W    12/T
LVM 080 043/070 041/078 050/087 052/076 046/077 047/081
    5/T 11/N    00/U    14/T    77/T    43/T    12/T
HDN 091 051/075 045/079 053/092 058/082 054/082 052/085
    4/T 11/N    00/U    01/U    57/T    42/W    11/U
MLS 089 054/073 049/073 056/092 061/083 058/081 055/085
    6/T 22/W    10/B    11/U    65/T    32/W    12/T
4BQ 090 055/078 049/075 056/096 061/083 057/081 055/086
    5/T 20/N    00/U    11/U    35/T    32/W    11/U
BHK 087 052/075 045/070 051/084 058/082 054/080 052/083
    7/T 52/W    10/B    11/N    54/T    32/T    11/U
SHR 091 050/075 042/079 052/096 056/080 050/080 050/084
    4/T 11/N    00/U    01/U    26/T    42/T    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 473 in effect until 8 PM MDT this
      evening FOR ZONES 30>33-36-37-57-58-138-169-171.
WY...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 473 in effect until 8 PM MDT this
      evening FOR ZONES 198-199.

&&

weather.gov/billings

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