Wind Advisory 6, NWS Buffalo, NY

912 
WWUS71 KBUF 100251
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
951 PM EST Sat Mar 9 2024

NYZ007-008-100400-
/O.EXP.KBUF.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-240310T0300Z/
Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville
951 PM EST Sat Mar 9 2024

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...

The threat has ended.

$$

NYZ004-013-014-021-101100-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0006.240310T2100Z-240311T1800Z/
Wayne-Livingston-Ontario-Allegany-
Including the cities of Newark, Geneseo, Canandaigua, and
Wellsville
951 PM EST Sat Mar 9 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM SUNDAY TO 2 PM EDT 
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Wayne, Livingston, Ontario, and Allegany Counties.

* WHEN...From 5 PM Sunday to 2 PM EDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high 
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

SJW

244 
WWUS71 KBUF 100749
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
349 AM EDT Sun Mar 10 2024

NYZ001>003-101600-
/O.EXA.KBUF.WI.Y.0006.240310T2100Z-240311T1800Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, and Rochester
349 AM EDT Sun Mar 10 2024

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EDT 
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Niagara, Orleans, and Monroe Counties.

* WHEN...From 5 PM this afternoon to 2 PM EDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high 
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

NYZ004-013-014-021-101600-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0006.240310T2100Z-240311T1800Z/
Wayne-Livingston-Ontario-Allegany-
Including the cities of Newark, Geneseo, Canandaigua, and
Wellsville
349 AM EDT Sun Mar 10 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM 
EDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Wayne, Livingston, Ontario, and Allegany Counties.

* WHEN...From 5 PM this afternoon to 2 PM EDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high 
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

Thomas

657 
WWUS71 KBUF 101455
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1055 AM EDT Sun Mar 10 2024

NYZ001>004-013-014-021-102300-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0006.240310T2100Z-240311T1800Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Livingston-Ontario-Allegany-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester, Newark,
Geneseo, Canandaigua, and Wellsville
1055 AM EDT Sun Mar 10 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM 
EDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Niagara, Orleans, Monroe, Wayne, Livingston, Ontario, and 
  Allegany Counties.

* WHEN...From 5 PM this afternoon to 2 PM EDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few isolated power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high 
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

Hitchcock

345 
WWUS71 KBUF 101820
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
220 PM EDT Sun Mar 10 2024

NYZ001>004-013-014-021-110300-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0006.240310T2100Z-240311T1800Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Livingston-Ontario-Allegany-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester, Newark,
Geneseo, Canandaigua, and Wellsville
220 PM EDT Sun Mar 10 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Niagara, Orleans, Monroe, Wayne, Livingston, Ontario, and 
  Allegany Counties.

* WHEN...Until 2 PM EDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few isolated power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high 
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

Hitchcock

832 
WWUS71 KBUF 110153
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
953 PM EDT Sun Mar 10 2024

NYZ001>004-013-014-021-111000-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-240311T1800Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Livingston-Ontario-Allegany-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester, Newark,
Geneseo, Canandaigua, and Wellsville
953 PM EDT Sun Mar 10 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Niagara, Orleans, Monroe, Wayne, Livingston, Ontario, and 
  Allegany Counties.

* WHEN...Until 2 PM EDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high 
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

RSH

737 
WWUS71 KBUF 110814
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
414 AM EDT Mon Mar 11 2024

NYZ005-111615-
/O.EXA.KBUF.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-240311T1800Z/
Northern Cayuga-
Including the cities of Fair Haven
414 AM EDT Mon Mar 11 2024

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Northern Cayuga County.

* WHEN...Until 2 PM EDT this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high 
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

NYZ001>004-013-014-021-111615-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-240311T1800Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Livingston-Ontario-Allegany-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester, Newark,
Geneseo, Canandaigua, and Wellsville
414 AM EDT Mon Mar 11 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Niagara, Orleans, Monroe, Wayne, Livingston, Ontario, and 
  Allegany Counties.

* WHEN...Until 2 PM EDT this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high 
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

Thomas

058 
WWUS71 KBUF 111304
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
904 AM EDT Mon Mar 11 2024

NYZ006-112115-
/O.EXB.KBUF.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-240312T0000Z/
Oswego-
Including the cities of Oswego
904 AM EDT Mon Mar 11 2024

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Oswego County. Strongest gusts will be close to Lake 
  Ontario.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few isolated power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high 
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

NYZ004-005-112115-
/O.EXT.KBUF.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-240312T0000Z/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-
Including the cities of Newark and Fair Haven
904 AM EDT Mon Mar 11 2024

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Wayne and Northern Cayuga Counties. Strongest gusts will 
  be close to Lake Ontario.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few isolated power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high 
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

NYZ001>003-013-014-021-111800-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-240311T1800Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Livingston-Ontario-Allegany-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester,
Geneseo, Canandaigua, and Wellsville
904 AM EDT Mon Mar 11 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Niagara, Orleans, Monroe, Livingston, Ontario, and 
  Allegany Counties. Strongest gusts will be close to Lake Ontario 
  and across higher terrain.

* WHEN...Until 2 PM EDT this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few isolated power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high 
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

Hitchcock

657 
WWUS71 KBUF 111802
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
202 PM EDT Mon Mar 11 2024

NYZ001>003-013-014-021-111915-
/O.EXP.KBUF.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-240311T1800Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Livingston-Ontario-Allegany-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester,
Geneseo, Canandaigua, and Wellsville
202 PM EDT Mon Mar 11 2024

...WIND ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

Winds will continue to gradually diminish through the rest of the 
afternoon.

$$

NYZ004>006-120000-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-240312T0000Z/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-
Including the cities of Newark, Fair Haven, and Oswego
202 PM EDT Mon Mar 11 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Wayne, Northern Cayuga, and Oswego Counties.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high 
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

Hitchcock

296 
WWUS71 KBUF 112352
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
752 PM EDT Mon Mar 11 2024

NYZ004>006-120100-
/O.EXP.KBUF.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-240312T0000Z/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-
Including the cities of Newark, Fair Haven, and Oswego
752 PM EDT Mon Mar 11 2024

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

While winds may still gust to 35 mph, the threat for impactful winds 
has ended.

$$

RSH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
123 PM EST Sat Mar 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A complex storm system will pass across our region this weekend, one
that will bring gusty southerly winds today, along with rain. Rain
will intensify some this evening ahead of a cold front, with this
rain changing to snow late tonight and early Sunday morning behind
the front. Gusty west to northwest winds Sunday will blow and drift
the accumulating snow through the day and night, with greatest
accumulations found across higher terrain east of both Lakes. Snow
will taper off later Sunday night and Monday from west to east.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Rain will continue to push eastward through this afternoon,
although there will be breaks in the rain at times today.

Surface across Georgian Bay will strengthen as it tracks
northward, with an associated cold front moving across our
region tonight. This will produce gusty winds and rain today,
followed by accumulating snow later tonight and Sunday.

Gusty winds...

A south-southeasterly 50 to 60 knot LLJ will be in place over our
region today, with its core around 3K feet off the ground. With the
core of this jet above a low level inversion, one that will be
further strengthened with rain fall later today, the stronger winds
will be hard to mix to the surface. Where stronger wind gusts will
occur, as a stable airmass accelerates down the lee of the mountain
side will be the northwest slopes of the Chautauqua Ridge and the
Tug Hill where gusts could reach 50 mph. Elsewhere gusts on the hill
tops, including the Bristol Hills, Wyoming Hills hills of SW NYS
could reach 40 to 45 mph...while lower terrain will likely have
gusts just shy of 40 mph.

Rainfall...

Rainfall of a half to one inch is expected across much of WNY, with
the higher amounts towards the state line. Towards the northern
Finger Lakes and areas east of Lake Ontario rainfall totals will
likely be a bit more, with up to an inch an a half. Favored spots
for greatest rainfall will be the southern slope of the Tug Hill
region. This rainfall will produce higher flows on area creeks and
rivers, but the latest MMEFS suggests just a limited chance for the
Black River to reach action level. More on this in the hydro section
below.

Accumulating Snow...

The first location to change to snow will be the higher terrain east
of Lake Ontario. With dynamic cooling, thermal profiles suggest
accumulating snow starting by this evening on the Tug Hill. Could
see several inches of snow before daybreak, especially central and
southern Lewis county which will be brushed by a passing TROWEL
signature that advances from the southern mid-Atlantic towards New
England tonight. Under this TROWEL signature snowfall rates may
briefly reach an inch or two per hour. Will start a winter storm
warning here east of Lake Ontario at 00Z to account for the earlier
transition to snow. Heavier snow for much of Oswego and Jefferson
county will likely start more towards daybreak Sunday morning. Will
leave the watch for northern Cayuga County, as well as the counties
SE of Lake Erie as is, as snow here will be more in the second part
of the storm, the northwest flow Sunday and Sunday night.

Cold air advection will change most rain over to snow regionwide by
early Sunday morning, with model consensus 850 hPa temperatures
Sunday morning ranging from -3C in the Saint Lawrence Valley to -8
near Lake Erie. It is within this Saint Lawrence Valley that thermal
profiles suggest a possible mix of rain and snow, before the cold
air deepens sufficiently to support all snow. By Sunday afternoon
temperatures aloft will reach -10 to -12C at 850 hPa. This will
support just enough instability for lake effect snow, that will be
enhanced as deeper synoptic moisture within the deformation band of
the storm system rotated back across the Lower Lakes. The northwest
flow will develop an upslope component to the snow, and this upslope
component is what will likely focus the higher snow totals to the
higher terrain east of both Lakes. Snow amounts are still with a bit
of uncertainty, mainly how long will the deeper synoptic moisture
linger.

Initially snow to liquid ratios will be low, with a heavy wet snow
through the morning hours of Sunday. Once the thermal trough passes
Sunday afternoon we should start to see these SLRs increase, with a
more fluffy nature to the snow by the late afternoon hours.

In addition to the snow, gusty winds will remain Sunday, this time
from the west to northwest. As the SLRs increase the amount of
blowing snow within these gusty winds will also increase. Will
maintain blowing and drifting snow in the forecast. The region that
may have the strongest gusts to around 40 mph would be the southern
shoreline of Lake Ontario.

Temperatures will still be well above normal today with early highs
in the low to mid 50s for the downslope regions near Lake Erie,
while mid 40s to around 50F elsewhere. Temperatures will be slow to
cool this evening ahead of the cold front, but a sharp drop into the
upper 20s to lower 30s by Sunday morning, save for the North Country
where the colder airmass will arrive last. Within this CAA Sunday
temperatures will be slow to budge, with highs only in the lower
30s, and apparent temperatures in the teens through the day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Deep low pressure over Maine at the start of Sunday evening will
slowly drift east across the Canadian Maritimes Sunday night and
Monday. The deep west-northwesterly cyclonic flow around the low
will continue to circulate deep moisture and cold air (850 mb
temperatures of -10C to -12C) across our region through the first
half to two-thirds of Sunday night...supporting a widespread
accumulating snowfall. After that time...sharp drying aloft and
strong subsidence associated with building ridging will quickly
spread from west to east across the area and bring about a fairly
rapid end to the snow...with the steady snow ending later Sunday
night across far western half of the area...and during Monday
morning further east. The 00z guidance suite has trended a bit
faster overall with the advent of this drying trend/end to the
snow...and have consequently adjusted the forecast to speed this up
a little bit from continuity.

We continue to expect the greatest accumulations across the higher
terrain east and east-southeast of both lakes...where enhancement
from the lakes and more so upsloping will provide a healthy boost to
amounts. Across the higher terrain east of Lake Erie another 2-4
inches appears likely from the Chautauqua Ridge eastward across the
Boston Hills and interior higher terrain of the Southern Tier...
while areas east of Lake Ontario look to be in line for another
general 4-8" Sunday night and 1-2" Monday...with the highest amounts
focused across the Tug Hill and western Adirondack foothills. For
these reasons...Winter Storm Watches and Warnings are in effect as
outlined below. That being said...even those areas outside of any
current headlines (including the Buffalo and Rochester Metro areas)
will see accumulating snow of a couple to several inches between
Sunday night and early Monday. Further complicating matters will be
strong west-northwesterly winds which will gust to 35-45 mph Sunday
night into early Monday...along with more localized gusts to 50 mph
possible immediately downwind of Lake Ontario. This will help to
produce fairly widespread blowing snow...which will be most
problematic across the higher terrain where accumulations will be
greatest. Given the expected combination of the snow and winds/
blowing snow...it's appearing increasingly likely that Winter
Weather Advisories will become necessary for the rest of the area
later on today... especially when also taking into consideration the
long stretch of warm and benign weather we've been experiencing of
late.

While it will still be rather windy on Monday...any blowing snow
should quickly wind down both with the departure of the steadier
snow...and as warm air advection/increasing sunshine attendant to
the building ridge helps push temperatures back into the mid 30s to
lower 40s in many areas...which should help make the just-deposited
snowpack less apt to blow around.

Monday night and Tuesday will then feature quiet weather along with
a quick return to milder temperatures as the axis of low-level
ridging builds across New York State...and its broad/flat parent
upper level ridge extends across the Great Lakes. Expect mainly
clear to mostly sunny skies during this time frame with just some
passing cirrus at points...with low temps in the mid 20s to lower
30s Monday night followed by highs quickly recovering to the mid to
upper 40s east and the lower to mid 50s west on Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Later on in the week our weekend bout of wintry weather will become
just a memory as surface high pressure slides east off the Atlantic
coastline...and a modest mid-level trough and associated elongated
surface low tracks from the Plains States across the Great Lakes.

With our region looking to be embedded within the rather mild
southwesterly flow in between these two systems for much of this
period...temperatures should surge back to unseasonably warm levels
for at least Wednesday and Thursday...before pulling back a little
on Friday as the surface low/trough axis potentially crosses our
region. Have therefore aimed above guidance for temperatures
throughout...with highs generally in the 50s east of Lake Ontario
and the 60s elsewhere both Wednesday and Thursday...before dropping
these back a bit on Friday to account for the potential surface
low/trough passage.

As for precipitation chances...expect mainly dry weather to prevail
both Wednesday and Thursday...with the next general round of shower
chances arriving for Thursday night and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A 997 mb low passing through the central Great Lakes will be found
over western Quebec by this evening. As the low heads off into
Canada, it will gradually drag a cold front through western area TAF
sites. Winds will continue to remain elevated the afternoon with
occasional gusts up to 40 knots before gradually subsiding by this
evening. CIGS and VSBYS will vary from IFR/MVFR across the higher
terrain of the Southern Tier (KJHW), to MVFR/VFR at lower elevation
sites for KIAG, KBUF,KROC, and KART. As the front enters, rain
showers will begin to slowly decrease in coverage from west to east
as the dry slot moves into the Lower Lakes. For aviation sites
generally east of KROC, there will 'likely' not be much improvement
with widespread rain persisting through much of the evening hours.

Tonight...cold air advection behind this front will eventually
change rain to accumulating wet snow for WNY by the end of the
night, while a mix of rain or snow will be found near KART.

Outlook...

Sunday...MVFR/IFR in snow...with the latter most likely in areas of
lake and orographic enhancement east and southeast of the lakes.
Also windy with westerly winds gusting to 30 to 35 knots in many
areas.
Monday...Leftover snow and MVFR/IFR winding down east of Lake
Ontario...otherwise MVFR/VFR. Continued windy.
Tuesday and Wednesday...Mainly VFR.
Thursday...Mainly VFR with a slight chance of a shower.

&&

.MARINE...
Southerly winds today will maintain small craft advisory conditions
on the Lakes ahead of a deepening surface low to our west. The
higher waves will remain in the central part of the Lake and
Canadian waters, though an increase in wave heights is likely on the
eastern shoreline of Lake Ontario as the wind flow appears to be
parallel with the shoreline here.

This surface low will track a cold front across the Lakes tonight,
with the southerly flow becoming west and eventually northwest.
Winds will again freshen behind this front, to possibly gale force
on Lake Ontario. Will issue a gale watch for Lake Ontario, starting
early Sunday. The winds will be slightly lower over the shorter
fetch of Lake Erie, with winds to 30 knots here.

Winds and waves will eventually diminish Monday and Monday night as
surface ridging from the west pushes eastward.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Rainfall amounts before the change over to snow will total
around an inch and a quarter in the Black River basin. This will
cause rises on the Black River and its tributaries, but crests
will most likely be around action stage. Aiding in the low flood
risk will also be a quicker change over to snow on the Tug
Hill, centered upon Lewis County tonight. With limited snow pack
in place, MMEFS ensembles show the risk for flooding is low.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Monday afternoon
     for NYZ005.
     Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 2 PM EST Monday
     for NYZ006>008.
     Wind Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for NYZ007-008.
     Wind Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ019-085.
     Winter Storm Watch from 1 AM EST Sunday through Monday morning
     for NYZ019-020-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LEZ040-
         041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for
         LOZ042-043.
         Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Monday morning for
         LOZ042-062.
         Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Monday afternoon
         for LOZ043>045-063>065.
         Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for
         LOZ044-045.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Thomas
NEAR TERM...Apffel/Thomas
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...AR/Thomas
MARINE...Thomas
HYDROLOGY...Apffel/Thomas

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
331 AM EST Sat Mar 9 2024

NYZ001>004-010>014-021-100845-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-
Livingston-Ontario-Allegany-
331 AM EST Sat Mar 9 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Accumulating snows are likely Sunday and Sunday night, with several
inches of snow possible. There also will be gusty winds during this
time, with gusts up to 45 mph resulting in areas of blowing and
drifting snow.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ019-085-100845-
Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
331 AM EST Sat Mar 9 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST SATURDAY...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.
   Winter Storm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ020-100845-
Cattaraugus-
331 AM EST Sat Mar 9 2024

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ007-008-100845-
Jefferson-Lewis-
331 AM EST Sat Mar 9 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EST
MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.
   Winter Storm Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ006-100845-
Oswego-
331 AM EST Sat Mar 9 2024

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EST
MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ005-100845-
Northern Cayuga-
331 AM EST Sat Mar 9 2024

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LOZ043>045-063>065-100845-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
331 AM EST Sat Mar 9 2024

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LOZ042-062-100845-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
331 AM EST Sat Mar 9 2024

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-100845-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
331 AM EST Sat Mar 9 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

SLZ022-024-100845-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
331 AM EST Sat Mar 9 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of the
Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf