Wind Advisory 4, NWS Buffalo, NY

029 
WWUS71 KBUF 280251
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
951 PM EST Tue Feb 27 2024

NYZ020-021-281100-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0004.240228T1600Z-240229T0600Z/
Cattaraugus-Allegany-
Including the cities of Olean and Wellsville
951 PM EST Tue Feb 27 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM
EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Cattaraugus and Allegany counties.

* WHEN...From 11 AM Wednesday to 1 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

NYZ001-002-010>012-019-085-281100-
/O.CON.KBUF.HW.A.0003.240228T1600Z-240229T0600Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Chautauqua-
Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Buffalo, Batavia, 
Warsaw, Jamestown, Orchard Park, and Springville
951 PM EST Tue Feb 27 2024

...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...West winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph 
  possible.

* WHERE...Niagara, Orleans, Erie, Genesee, Wyoming, and 
  Chautauqua counties.

* WHEN...From Wednesday morning through late Wednesday night.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds could blow down trees and power 
  lines. Widespread power outages are possible. Travel could be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts and warnings for updates on this
situation. Fasten loose objects or shelter objects in a safe
location prior to the onset of winds.

&&

$$

NYZ003>008-013-014-281100-
/O.CON.KBUF.HW.A.0003.240228T1900Z-240229T1200Z/
Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-Livingston-
Ontario-
Including the cities of Rochester, Newark, Fair Haven, Oswego, 
Watertown, Lowville, Geneseo, and Canandaigua
951 PM EST Tue Feb 27 2024

...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...West winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph 
  possible.

* WHERE...Monroe, Wayne, Northern Cayuga, Oswego, Jefferson, 
  Lewis, Livingston, and Ontario counties.

* WHEN...From Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds could blow down trees and power 
  lines. Widespread power outages are possible. Travel could be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts and warnings for updates on this
situation. Fasten loose objects or shelter objects in a safe
location prior to the onset of winds.

&&

$$

485 
WWUS71 KBUF 280832
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
332 AM EST Wed Feb 28 2024

NYZ003>008-014-281645-
/O.UPG.KBUF.HW.A.0003.240228T1900Z-240229T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.HW.W.0003.240228T1900Z-240229T1200Z/
Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-Ontario-
Including the cities of Rochester, Newark, Fair Haven, Oswego, 
Watertown, Lowville, and Canandaigua
332 AM EST Wed Feb 28 2024

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM
EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Monroe, Wayne, Northern Cayuga, Oswego, Jefferson,
  Lewis, and Ontario counties. Strongest winds will be near Lake 
  Ontario.

* WHEN...From 2 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines.
  Scattered power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult,
  especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

NYZ001-002-010>012-019-085-281645-
/O.UPG.KBUF.HW.A.0003.240228T1600Z-240229T0600Z/
/O.EXB.KBUF.WI.Y.0004.240228T1600Z-240229T0900Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Chautauqua-
Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Buffalo, Batavia, 
Warsaw, Jamestown, Orchard Park, and Springville
332 AM EST Wed Feb 28 2024

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 to 55 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Niagara, Orleans, Erie, Genesee, Wyoming, and 
  Chautauqua counties.

* WHEN...From 11 AM this morning to 4 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree
  limbs could be blown down and a few isolated power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

NYZ013-281645-
/O.UPG.KBUF.HW.A.0003.240228T1900Z-240229T1200Z/
/O.EXB.KBUF.WI.Y.0004.240228T1600Z-240229T0900Z/
Livingston-
Including the city of Geneseo
332 AM EST Wed Feb 28 2024

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 to 55 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Livingston county.

* WHEN...From 11 AM this morning to 4 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree
  limbs could be blown down and a few isolated power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

NYZ020-021-281645-
/O.EXT.KBUF.WI.Y.0004.240228T1600Z-240229T0900Z/
Cattaraugus-Allegany-
Including the cities of Olean and Wellsville
332 AM EST Wed Feb 28 2024

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM
EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Cattaraugus and Allegany counties.

* WHEN...From 11 AM this morning to 4 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree
  limbs could be blown down and a few isolated power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

Hitchcock

040 
WWUS71 KBUF 281604
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1104 AM EST Wed Feb 28 2024

NYZ003>008-014-290015-
/O.CON.KBUF.HW.W.0003.240228T1900Z-240229T1200Z/
Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-Ontario-
Including the cities of Rochester, Newark, Fair Haven, Oswego, 
Watertown, Lowville, and Canandaigua
1104 AM EST Wed Feb 28 2024

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Monroe, Wayne, Northern Cayuga, Oswego, Jefferson, 
  Lewis, and Ontario counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

NYZ001-002-010>012-019-085-290015-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-240229T0900Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Chautauqua-
Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Buffalo, Batavia, 
Warsaw, Jamestown, Orchard Park, and Springville
1104 AM EST Wed Feb 28 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 to 55 mph.

* WHERE...Niagara, Orleans, Erie, Genesee, Wyoming, and 
  Chautauqua counties.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

NYZ013-020-021-290015-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-240229T0900Z/
Livingston-Cattaraugus-Allegany-
Including the cities of Geneseo, Olean, and Wellsville
1104 AM EST Wed Feb 28 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 to 55 mph.

* WHERE...Livingston, Cattaraugus, and Allegany counties.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

796 
WWUS71 KBUF 290006
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
706 PM EST Wed Feb 28 2024

NYZ003>008-014-290900-
/O.CON.KBUF.HW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-240229T1200Z/
Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-Ontario-
Including the cities of Rochester, Newark, Fair Haven, Oswego, 
Watertown, Lowville, and Canandaigua
706 PM EST Wed Feb 28 2024

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Monroe, Wayne, Northern Cayuga, Oswego, Jefferson, 
  Lewis, and Ontario counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

NYZ001-002-010>012-019-085-290900-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-240229T0900Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Chautauqua-
Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Buffalo, Batavia, 
Warsaw, Jamestown, Orchard Park, and Springville
706 PM EST Wed Feb 28 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 to 55 mph.

* WHERE...Niagara, Orleans, Erie, Genesee, Wyoming, and 
  Chautauqua counties.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

NYZ013-020-021-290900-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-240229T0900Z/
Livingston-Cattaraugus-Allegany-
Including the cities of Geneseo, Olean, and Wellsville
706 PM EST Wed Feb 28 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 to 55 mph.

* WHERE...Livingston, Cattaraugus, and Allegany counties.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

093 
WWUS71 KBUF 290348
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1048 PM EST Wed Feb 28 2024

NYZ010-019-020-085-290500-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WI.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-240229T0900Z/
Northern Erie-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Buffalo, Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park, 
and Springville
1048 PM EST Wed Feb 28 2024

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

$$

NYZ003>008-014-291200-
/O.CON.KBUF.HW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-240229T1200Z/
Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-Ontario-
Including the cities of Rochester, Newark, Fair Haven, Oswego, 
Watertown, Lowville, and Canandaigua
1048 PM EST Wed Feb 28 2024

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph.

* WHERE...Monroe, Wayne, Northern Cayuga, Oswego, Jefferson, 
  Lewis, and Ontario counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

NYZ001-002-011-012-290900-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-240229T0900Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Genesee-Wyoming-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Batavia, 
and Warsaw
1048 PM EST Wed Feb 28 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Niagara, Orleans, Genesee, and Wyoming counties.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

NYZ013-021-290900-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-240229T0900Z/
Livingston-Allegany-
Including the cities of Geneseo and Wellsville
1048 PM EST Wed Feb 28 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Livingston and Allegany counties.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

Thomas

182 
WWUS71 KBUF 290845
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
345 AM EST Thu Feb 29 2024

NYZ003>008-014-290945-
/O.CAN.KBUF.HW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-240229T1200Z/
Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-Ontario-
Including the cities of Rochester, Newark, Fair Haven, Oswego, 
Watertown, Lowville, and Canandaigua
345 AM EST Thu Feb 29 2024

...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...

Winds will continue to gradually diminish during the day.

$$

NYZ001-002-011-012-290945-
/O.EXP.KBUF.WI.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-240229T0900Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Genesee-Wyoming-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Batavia, 
and Warsaw
345 AM EST Thu Feb 29 2024

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING...

Winds will continue to gradually diminish during the day.

$$

NYZ013-021-290945-
/O.EXP.KBUF.WI.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-240229T0900Z/
Livingston-Allegany-
Including the cities of Geneseo and Wellsville
345 AM EST Thu Feb 29 2024

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING...

Winds will continue to gradually diminish during the day.

$$

TMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
144 PM EST Tue Feb 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Record breaking warmth today, along with breezy conditions and
a chance of showers and thunderstorms. A strong cold front will
move through Wednesday with gusty winds, more showers, and a
chance of thunderstorms. Much colder Thursday with some lake
effect snow possible southeast of both lakes.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
All three of our climate sites have already broken record highs
today, with unseasonably warm weather across the region this
afternoon. However, a line of showers and thunderstorms is
approaching from the west and temperatures will drop as this
line moves through from west to east. This line is across
Western NY at 130 pm, about to move across the Buffalo metro
area. The HRRR has a fairly good handle on this, with the line
expected to reach Rochester 3-4 p.m. The line should weaken
later this afternoon, with what's left of it will reach
Watertown 6-7 p.m. See Climate section for more on today's
record highs.

There will be a brief window of dry conditions across the region
this evening before another round of showers and possibly
thunderstorms enter western NY later tonight. A sharp mid-level
trough and strong cold front will approach the region tonight.
Increasing forcing from prefrontal trough with a 50kt low level jet
will reach western NY the second half of tonight. PWATS will also
increase to at least 200% of normal for this time of year. Forecast
soundings depict the potential for elevated instability, mainly
across far western NY overnight. A Marginal Risk for Severe Weather
is across Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and far southern Erie counties
through tonight. Mild conditions tonight with lows in the low to mid
50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A very active period is in store for the middle of the week with
multiple impactful hazards in play. Increasing forecast confidence
on strong wind potential as model guidance comes into better
agreement.

A sharp mid level trough will move across the Central Great Lakes
tonight, and then into southern Ontario province on Wednesday.
Southerly flow ahead of this will advect an unseasonably warm
airmass into the region before pushing a strong cold front across
the region on Wednesday. Colder air and a cyclonic flow aloft will
support some lake effect snow following the cold frontal passage
Wednesday night into Thursday, especially southeast of Lake Ontario.

Near record highs will occur once again Wednesday, with highs in the
upper 50s to mid 60s, warmest on the lake plains with an added boost
from southerly downslope flow prior to the arrival of the cold
front. The strong cold front will enter Western NY by midday to
early afternoon, then surge rapidly to the eastern Lake Ontario
region by mid to late afternoon, with a dramatic temperature drop,
potentially strong winds, and a limited potential for a flash
freeze. Further details broken down by hazard below...

Rain and Thunderstorms...

This system is moving very fast, so that will limit rainfall to some
extent. Expect totals to reach 0.25"-0.75" in most areas, and up to
1.0" across higher terrain from today through Wednesday evening.
Much of this rain will come in several batches of brief, heavy
downpours. In general, given the lack of snowpack, the area should
handle these amounts with no significant hydro concerns. There is
still some snow to melt across the higher terrain east of Lake
Ontario, and this will support within-bank rises to action stage
along the Black River and its tributaries.

Increasing elevated instability will support the potential for a few
scattered thunderstorms Wednesday. The instability will be elevated
in nature most of the time, but there will likely be a narrow
corridor of weak surface based instability just ahead of the cold
front Wednesday. If a line of low topped thunderstorms (or even
convective showers without thunder) are able to develop along the
strongly forced cold front, gusty winds and isolated damaging winds
are possible.

Winds...

A strong 60+ knot low level jet will cross the area before the front
early Wednesday, but warm advection should keep this mostly aloft.
Nonetheless, there may be some 30-40 mph gusts areawide ahead of the
front, and gusts to around 45 mph in downslope areas.

Along and behind the cold front there is a potential for strong
winds. Forecast model soundings show a brief period of 55+ knot
boundary layer winds in the post-frontal airmass. There is a notable
tropopause fold in the sharp trough, with the 1.5 PVU surface
decending to below 600MB, and combined with very strong cold
advection will support strong low level lapse rates and deep mixing
behind the cold front. This will bring the potential for a few hours
of warning criteria 60 mph wind gusts across much of the area. The
strongest gusts will likely be found east/northeast of Lake Erie and
Lake Ontario where winds funnel off the low friction environment of
the lakes. With this in mind, a High Wind Watch has been issued for
the bulk of the area from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
night.

Flash Freeze...

The potential for a flash freeze has decreased a little, mainly due
to the cold front looking less anabatic in nature in the most recent
model runs. Precipitation will largely end following the cold
frontal passage, with little snow initially until wrap around and
lake effect snow showers develop a few hours after the frontal
passage. There will still be very dramatic drop in temperatures
following the cold front, but the diminishing precipitation and
strong winds may allow pavement to blow dry prior to temperatures
dropping below freezing.

Lake Effect Snow...

Strong cold advection behind the system will allow 850mb
temperatures to bottom out around -18C by 12Z Thursday. The deep
pool of cold air aloft in the base of the trough will support a
narrow window of lake effect snow potential later Wednesday evening
through Thursday morning. The setup looks much better off Lake
Ontario, where model guidance suggests a brief upstream connection
to both Lake Superior and Georgian Bay for a few hours. This may
support moderate snow accumulations across portions of Wayne,
N.Cayuga, and far southern Oswego counties Wednesday night through
Thursday morning. Here, advisory level snow accumulations of 3 to 6
inches are possible, and areas of blowing snow are possible since
winds will still be elevated. The airmass is drier and fetch shorter
for Lake Erie, with minor accumulations of 1-3" across the higher
terrain east of Lake Erie. Outside of these areas, meandering bands
of snow showers from Lake Huron will product spotty dusting to 1"
accumulations.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The last of the lake effect snow showers east/southeast of Lake
Ontario will end Thursday evening as warm advection increases across
the eastern Great Lakes.

Friday through early next week will then be dry most of the time,
with another major warming trend.

Looking at the details, Friday will be dry as high pressure drifts
off the east coast. Temperatures will quickly recover after a chilly
start, with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s in most areas.

Model guidance diverges Friday night through the weekend as a weak
trough crosses the eastern Great Lakes and New England. The 00Z GFS
and Canadian GEM suggest some light rain/snow showers Friday night
through Saturday, while the 00Z ECMWF is mainly dry for that period.
Given the model uncertainty, kept POPS in the slight chance range.

What is more certain, a notable warming trend will develop again
over the weekend and especially early next week. Temperatures will
likely be well into the 50s over the weekend and 60s by Sunday or
Monday as the longwave trough reloads in the western US and forces
strong downstream height rises over the eastern US.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A line of showers and thunderstorms will move from west to east
across the area this afternoon. This will produce localized MVFR
or lower conditions but will only last an hour or two at any
given location. KBUF/KIAG are likely to get a thunderstorms,
and it's also possible at KROC and KJHW. Outside of this like of
showers and storms expect VFR flight conditons through this
evening.

There will be a brief window of dry weather until the next area
of showers and thunderstorms enters western NY late tonight.
Expect areas of MVFR and IFR across higher terrain as this line
goes through late tonight and into Wednesday morning.

Scattered showers Wednesday morning, with mainly VFR flight
conditions through 15Z. After this, a strong cold front will
quickly move from west to east across the area, producing a
round of rain showers and thunderstorms followed by strong
gusty westerly winds, with rain changing to snow. Gusts of 40
knots or greater are likely both with the front and possibly
with storms which will be along the front.

Outlook...

Wednesday night...Mainly VFR with areas of IFR in lake effect
snow southeast and east of the Lakes. Windy.

Thursday...VFR/MVFR. Lake effect stratus and a chance of snow
showers south and east of the lakes.

Friday through Sunday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A tightening pressure gradient over the region will cause south-
southeasterly winds to freshen which will support small craft
headlines across eastern Lake Ontario today.

Southerly winds remain elevated through tonight and briefly
strengthen early Wednesday morning, before a strong cold front
sweeps across the lakes Wednesday afternoon. A Gale Watch is in
effect for Lake Erie Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening,
but held off on Lake Erie where post-frontal winds won't be quite as
strong. A Gale Warning is in effect for Lake Ontario Wednesday
afternoon through Wednesday night. Westerly winds will diminish but
remain elevated through Thursday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Multiple records already broken early this afternoon. All three
climate sites have broken daily records today, with temperatures
still rising at some sites. Rochester has tied an all time
record high for February.

Here is a look at the current records (or records which were
just broken)...

Record High Temperatures

Buffalo..... Tue 2/27 - 64(2000) Wed 2/28 - 64(1954)

Rochester... Tue 2/27 - 66(2000) Wed 2/28 - 64(2018)

Watertown... Tue 2/27 - 63(2000) Wed 2/28 - 60(2018)

Record Warm Low Temperatures

Buffalo..... Tue 2/27 - 40(1881)

Rochester... Tue 2/27 - 47(2017)

Watertown... Tue 2/27 - 40(2000)

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...High Wind Watch from Wednesday morning through late Wednesday
     night for NYZ001-002-010>012-019-085.
     High Wind Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday
     morning for NYZ003>008-013-014.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Wednesday morning through late Wednesday night
         for LEZ040-041.
         Gale Warning from 1 PM Wednesday to 7 AM EST Thursday
         for LOZ042-062.
         Gale Warning from 3 PM Wednesday to 7 AM EST Thursday for
         LOZ043>045-063>065.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for
         LOZ045.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HSK/TMA
NEAR TERM...Apffel/HSK
SHORT TERM...Hitchcock
LONG TERM...Hitchcock
AVIATION...Apffel/HSK
MARINE...HSK/TMA
CLIMATE...Apffel/Hitchcock/HSK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
314 AM EST Tue Feb 27 2024

NYZ001-002-010>012-019-085-281030-
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Chautauqua-
Southern Erie-
314 AM EST Tue Feb 27 2024

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Watch.

A strong cold front will cross the region late Wednesday afternoon
and evening, with multiple hazards possible.

Scattered thunderstorms may produce small hail and gusty winds later
tonight through late Wednesday afternoon. A flash freeze is possible
mid to late afternoon Wednesday as rain changes to snow before
ending, and temperatures fall very rapidly below freezing.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ020-021-281030-
Cattaraugus-Allegany-
314 AM EST Tue Feb 27 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

A strong cold front will cross the region late Wednesday afternoon
and evening, with multiple hazards possible.

Scattered thunderstorms may produce small hail and gusty winds later
tonight through late Wednesday afternoon. A flash freeze is possible
mid to late afternoon Wednesday as rain changes to snow before
ending, and temperatures fall very rapidly below freezing. Wind gusts
of 50 mph or greater are possible Wednesday afternoon through
Wednesday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ003-013-014-281030-
Monroe-Livingston-Ontario-
314 AM EST Tue Feb 27 2024

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Watch.

A strong cold front will cross the region late Wednesday afternoon
and evening, with multiple hazards possible.

Scattered thunderstorms may produce small hail and gusty winds later
tonight through late Wednesday afternoon. A flash freeze is possible
late afternoon Wednesday as rain changes to snow before ending, and
temperatures fall very rapidly below freezing.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ004>006-281030-
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-
314 AM EST Tue Feb 27 2024

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Watch.

A strong cold front will cross the region late Wednesday afternoon
and evening, with multiple hazards possible.

Scattered thunderstorms may produce small hail and gusty winds later
tonight through late Wednesday afternoon. A flash freeze is possible
late afternoon to early evening Wednesday as rain changes to snow
before ending, and temperatures fall very rapidly below freezing.

Accumulating lake effect snow is possible southeast of Lake Ontario
Wednesday night through Thursday morning, with localized moderate
accumulations possible. Gusty winds will produce blowing and drifting
snow.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ007-008-281030-
Jefferson-Lewis-
314 AM EST Tue Feb 27 2024

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Watch.

A strong cold front will cross the region late Wednesday afternoon
and evening, with multiple hazards possible.

Scattered thunderstorms may produce small hail and gusty winds later
tonight through late Wednesday afternoon. A flash freeze is possible
late afternoon to early evening Wednesday as rain changes to snow
before ending, and temperatures fall very rapidly below freezing.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-LOZ030-281030-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-Lower Niagara River-
314 AM EST Tue Feb 27 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LOZ042-062-281030-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
314 AM EST Tue Feb 27 2024

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LOZ043>045-063>065-281030-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
314 AM EST Tue Feb 27 2024

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ040-041-281030-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
314 AM EST Tue Feb 27 2024

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

SLZ022-024-281030-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
314 AM EST Tue Feb 27 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of the
Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

Hitchcock