Special Weather Statement, NWS Buffalo, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
522 PM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will track across the region through this
evening, with strong to severe thunderstorms expected with its
passage. Cooler temperatures over the region through the middle of
the week will result in periods of showers and fall like conditions.
A return to drier and warmer than normal weather is expected for
late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
...Strong to Severe Thunderstorms Possible Through This Evening...

Water vapor imagery showing a vigourous trough over the Great Lakes
and Ontario early this evening. Strong wind fields aloft associated
with the trough will overspread the region this evening as a cold
front plows eastward through the region. Latest CAMS continuing to
suggest convective initiation in the 21z to 23Z time frame across
far western New York, then working fairly quickly eastward through
the evening. Strong wind fields aloft with nearly 50 knots of deep
layer shear will yield a narrow band of organized convection.
Damaging wind gusts will likely be the PRIMARY threat associated
with the strong wind fields aloft. Bufkit profiles showing
sufficient low-level hodograph curvature and SRH signals to suggest
the potenial for supercell development with an isolated tornado
possible, especially across southwest New York.

This has led to the issuance of a severe thunderstorm watch until 11
PM for the westernmost counties of New York, including all of the
IAG Frontier...Wyoming, Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties.

The cold front will track east and out of the forecast area by the
mid/late evening tonight. As the line of showers and thunderstorms
tracks east, conditions become less favorable for strong/severe
storms with less instability and shear expected. Air mass will dry
our quickly behind the cold front, but additional showers will start
to develop, mainly downwind of the lakes as moisture increases as
the trough axis crosses over the area. Cooling temperatures aloft
will also support a lake response. Lows tonight will be in the mid
40s to mid 50s.

Shortwave energy will round the base of a low pressure system over
James Bay Monday. This will keep a cool, cyclonic west-northwest
flow pattern in place across the region. 850 mb temperatures
lowering to near +2C will keep the risk for some lake effect showers
downwind of the lakes. Temperatures Monday will be some 15-20
degrees cooler than Sunday with highs only in the mid 50s to lower
60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Through this period several shortwaves rounding a deepening, and
closed upper level trough will maintain chances for rain showers,
embedded with lake effect rain. Northwest, cyclonic flow aloft will
maintain chances for showers, enhanced during the day by steepening
lapse rates. Better lake effect potential will be near Lake Ontario
under deeper moisture, and at night through mid morning before the
effects of daytime insolation and increased boundary layer shear
cause any bands to become more cellular.

Temperatures at 850 hPa will lower to around zero Celsius,
maintaining instability over the warm lake waters for lake effect
rain showers and waterspout potential, while inland at night paving
the way for frost potential where skies clear. Better night for
frost potential will be Thursday morning under a lighter wind flow
and clearing skies aloft.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The period will open with an anomalously strong mid-level ridge
over the Northern and Central Plains and a closed low across
Northern New England and the Canadian Maritimes Thursday. The
Eastern Great Lakes region will be situated in the middle while
surface high pressure builds into the region Thursday through
Friday. A cooler airmass will be in place Thursday with slightly
below normal temperatures across the forecast area. There is
medium to high confidence that dry conditions will be realized
Thursday through Friday. Ensemble systems show that the upper
level pattern will become less amplified going into the weekend.
The cooler airmass will move east and day to day warming will
occur Friday through Saturday. Deterministic models show the
potential for a mid-level trough digging into the Great Lakes
region late in the weekend and for the start of the next work
week. This could bring another period of unsettled conditions
and cooler weather.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A line of showers and strong to severe thunderstorms will enter the
western New York and push east across the region through the
evening. This convection could be accompanied by short periods of
MVFR conditions. Coverage of thunderstorms will be the greatest
between 21Z and 02Z. There is a risk for thunderstorms wind gusts to
50 knots as this line of thunderstorms passes through the area.

Behind the front, winds will turn northwest with additional cloud
cover and showers developing during the later half of the night will
cause flight conditions to drop to or near MVFR at times, mainly
downwind of the lakes where lake clouds will develop.

Outlook...

Monday through Wednesday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers...
especially east/southeast of the lakes.

Thursday AND Friday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Southerly winds will continue ahead of an approaching cold front
that will cross the lower Great Lakes early this evening. Strong to
severe thunderstorms will be possible with the cold frontal passage
with the potential for localized wind gust over 35 knots.

Winds will turn to west-northwest behind the front tonight and
continue through Monday. Small craft conditions will occur on both
lakes during this time frame.

A colder northwest flow pattern will continue through the first half
of the week, keeping conditions choppy but likely just below
advisory criteria. There will be a waterspout potenial within the
colder regime. High pressure builds over the lower Great Lakes by
Thursday with conditions improving for the second half of the week.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Monday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 11 PM EDT Monday
         for LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Monday to 2 AM EDT Tuesday
         for LOZ043-044.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SW/TMA
NEAR TERM...SW/TMA
SHORT TERM...Thomas
LONG TERM...HSK
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
513 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024

NYZ012-019>021-085-070915-
Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
513 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A strong cold front will cross the region this afternoon and
evening. Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible as the front
tracks across Western New York and the Northern Finger Lakes. The
greatest threat is from strong to severe gusty winds, with large hail
also possible. An isolated tornado is also possible for areas of
southwestern New York. Brief heavy downpours may also cause ponding
on area roadways.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ001>005-010-011-013-014-070915-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Northern Erie-Genesee-
Livingston-Ontario-
513 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A strong cold front will cross the region this afternoon and
evening. Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible as the front
tracks across Western New York and the Northern Finger Lakes. The
greatest threat is from strong to severe gusty winds, with large hail
also possible. Brief heavy downpours may also cause ponding on area
roadways.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042-043-062-063-070915-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
513 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A strong cold front will cross the region this afternoon and
evening. Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible as the front
tracks across the lakes. The greatest threat is from strong to
severe gusty winds, with large hail also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ006>008-070915-
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
513 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LOZ044-045-064-065-SLZ022-024-070915-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
513 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario and
Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf