Special Weather Statement, NWS Buffalo, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
324 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level trough will bring cool but unsettled weather through
Monday with lake effect rain showers downwind of the lakes, and
general showers and a few thunderstorms this afternoon. After this
high pressure will build in, bringing a return to fair and
seasonably warm weather for Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
WV satellite imagery depicts a double-barreled upper level low
swirling between the Great Lakes and Quebec this afternoon. This
deep upper level trough will continue to circulate cool air into the
region, with 850H temps sampled by this morning's 12z BUF sounding
around +9C. This is translating to temperatures in the upper 60s to
mid 70s, some 5-10 degrees below normal.

Meanwhile, steepening lapse rates and deepening moisture as the
southernmost distinct area of cyclonic flow aloft pivots towards the
forecast area is allowing for shower coverage to slowly expand, with
a few widely scattered thunderstorms as well. While the overhead
airmass is certainly cool enough for some lake enhancement,
lightning and/or pea sized hail outside of the stronger updrafts
remains limited.

Once the strong diurnal influences wane following sunset this
evening, expect a transition back to a lake effect dominated pattern
through tonight with shower/thunderstorm coverage outside the lake
effect areas set to diminish. The upper trough will continue to move
northeast of the forecast area into Quebec, causing winds to veer
west-northwesterly. This will cause scattered lake effect rain
showers off Lake Erie to spread mainly into the Southern Tier,
Southern Erie, and Wyoming counties. Greater fetch and deeper
moisture closer to the trough will allow for a more focused band of
rain to form east of Lake Ontario. Many hi-res guidance packages
advertise this band re-organizing and lingering for several hours
across Oswego County late tonight, possibly far enough south to clip
Northern Cayuga and NE Wayne counties. An additional half inch to an
inch of rain will be possible in these areas.

A broad mid-level ridge over the Mississippi Valley will slowly move
east into the Great Lakes in the wake of the trough Monday. This
will allow an area of surface high pressure to build into the
region. Combined with daytime heating, the lake response should
gradually fall off through the morning hours, first off Lake Erie
with Ontario to follow. Outside of the lake enhancement, diurnal
instability under the trailing upper level trough axis over the
eastern Great Lakes could produce some scattered shower or
thunderstorm activity across the area. Otherwise, expect another
cool day with highs in the 70s, with 60s across the higher terrain
east of Lake Ontario.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Monday night, the stronger/deeper trough will push to the east, but
a few shortwave troughs will cross the region during the period.
This will bring the potential for some showers during the period,
but a sfc high over the Great Lakes will help to limit rain
potential. For the entire period, precipitation potential will be
limited to slight chance as moisture is limited and the above
scenarios taken into account. The best chance for showers will be
during the afternoon hours on both Tuesday and Wednesday as peak
heating helps increase instability some with increased low level
lapse rates.

Temperatures for Tuesday will be near normal and then warm on
Wednesday to a few degrees above normal. Afternoon highs for the
period overall will be in the low to mid 70s for the higher terrain
and in the upper 70s to low 80s for the lower elevations.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A ridge briefly moves across the region later Thursday into
Friday, providing a dry period into Friday afternoon. A large
mid level trough and low moves in for the later portion of the
week and the weekend, increasing the potential for showers and
at least some thunderstorms. Guidance is still in disagreement
among the global models for timing of showers to move into the
area. But the best chance will be Friday night through Saturday
night as of current guidance.

Temperatures to start the period will be above normal for Thursday
and Friday with afternoon highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s, from the
higher terrain to the lower elevations respectively. For Saturday
and Sunday the temperatures are currently expected to cool each day
to near normal. Temperatures for the weekend will also be highly
dependent on how quickly the trough moves into and then out of the
region. If the trough is slower, then temperatures on Saturday may
remain warmer.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Mainly VFR through the 18z TAF cycle as an upper level low pressure
system moves overhead, then northeast of the region tonight. Showers
and thunderstorms under this low pressure system will continue to
develop across the forecast area into this evening. Localized MVFR
or localized IFR vsbys are possible under the heavier convection.

In the wake of the low pressure trough tonight, expect a transition
back to mainly lake effect rain showers east and southeast of the
lakes. A few thunderstorms will be possible closer to the
lakeshores. Localized drops to MVFR and IFR will be possible within
these showers, especially east of Lake Ontario where lake
enhancement is expected to be strongest. The bulk of this activity
is expected to stay away from the TAF sites, with the main exception
of KJHW.

Outlook...

Monday...MVFR/VFR with lake effect showers east of the lakes
transitioning to more general scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms.

Monday night through Thursday...Mainly VFR.

Friday...Mainly VFR. Increasing chances for showers late.

&&

.MARINE...
Moderately brisk west to southwesterly winds will continue across
the Lower Great Lakes into this evening, then veer west-
southwesterly and subside some tonight. This will maintain SCA
conditions on the lakes into tonight, with the Upper Niagara River
falling below SCA criteria first this evening.

With a favorably cool environment in place aloft, any lake effect
rain showers will have the potential to produce waterspouts on the
lakes and some thunderstorms. Waterspouts tend to form on boundaries.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Beach Hazards Statement until 11 PM EDT this evening for
     NYZ001>004-010-019-085.
     Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for NYZ005>007.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for LOZ042-
         043.
         Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Monday for LOZ044-045.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Apffel/PP
NEAR TERM...PP
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...PP
MARINE...Apffel/HSK/PP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
408 AM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024

NYZ008-011>014-020-021-120900-
Lewis-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Cattaraugus-Allegany-
408 AM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ005>007-120900-
Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-
408 AM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ001>004-120900-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-
408 AM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ010-019-085-120900-
Northern Erie-Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
408 AM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-LOZ030-SLZ022-024-120900-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-Lower Niagara River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
408 AM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie, Lake
Ontario and Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ040-041-LOZ042>045-062>065-120900-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
408 AM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

There is a risk of waterspouts tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

There is a risk of waterspouts today through Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

Apffel

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>