Small Craft Advisory 52, NWS Buffalo, NY

611 
WHUS71 KBUF 091428
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1028 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

LEZ040-041-092230-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0052.240609T1500Z-240610T0300Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
1028 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...Until 11 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ020-092230-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0052.240609T1500Z-240610T0000Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
1028 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 20 knots expected.

* WHERE...The Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-092230-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0052.240609T1500Z-240610T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
1028 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...Until 5 AM EDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043>045-092230-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0052.240609T1500Z-240610T1500Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
1028 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT
MONDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 4 to 7 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...Until 11 AM EDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

194 
WHUS71 KBUF 092008
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
408 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

LEZ040-041-100300-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0052.000000T0000Z-240610T0300Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
408 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...Until 11 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ020-100000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0052.000000T0000Z-240610T0000Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
408 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 20 knots.

* WHERE...The Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-100415-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0052.000000T0000Z-240610T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
408 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 20 knots.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...Until 5 AM EDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043>045-100415-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0052.000000T0000Z-240610T1500Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
408 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT
MONDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...Until 11 AM EDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

726 
WHUS71 KBUF 092316
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
716 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

LEZ020-100030-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0052.000000T0000Z-240610T0000Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
716 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

$$

LEZ040-041-100300-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0052.000000T0000Z-240610T0300Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
716 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 10 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...Until 11 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-100730-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0052.000000T0000Z-240610T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
716 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 10 to 20 knots.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...Until 5 AM EDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043>045-100730-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0052.000000T0000Z-240610T1500Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
716 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT
MONDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 10 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...Until 11 AM EDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

467 
WHUS71 KBUF 100235
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1035 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

LEZ040-041-100345-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0052.000000T0000Z-240610T0300Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
1035 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

$$

LOZ042-100900-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0052.000000T0000Z-240610T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
1035 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 10 to 20 knots.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...Until 5 AM EDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043>045-101045-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0052.000000T0000Z-240610T1500Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
1035 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT
MONDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 10 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...Until 11 AM EDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

076 
WHUS71 KBUF 100743
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
343 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

LOZ042-101545-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0052.000000T0000Z-240610T1800Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
343 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...Until 2 PM EDT this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043>045-101545-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0052.000000T0000Z-240611T0000Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
343 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 4 to 7 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

320 
WHUS71 KBUF 101402
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1002 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

LOZ042-101800-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0052.000000T0000Z-240610T1800Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
1002 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...West winds 10 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...Until 2 PM EDT this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043>045-102215-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0052.000000T0000Z-240611T0000Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
1002 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 10 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

794 
WHUS71 KBUF 101738
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
138 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

LOZ042-101845-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0052.000000T0000Z-240610T1800Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
138 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...


$$

LOZ043>045-110000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0052.000000T0000Z-240611T0000Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
138 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 10 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

844 
WHUS71 KBUF 102032
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
432 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

LOZ043>045-110000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0052.000000T0000Z-240611T0000Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
432 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

673 
WHUS71 KBUF 102338
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
738 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

LOZ043>045-110045-
/O.EXP.KBUF.SC.Y.0052.000000T0000Z-240611T0000Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
738 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

Winds and waves will continue to diminish tonight.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1259 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A trough will cross the region tonight with a period of rain
overnight. Unsettled weather will continue Sunday through Monday
with a few showers and cool temperatures before drier and warmer
weather returns by the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A mid level trough and associated forcing will continue to support
an area of widespread light to moderate rain crossing the region
overnight. Removed the thunder from the forecast as currently there
are no lightning strikes, and not till tomorrow will instability
increase.

Supporting lift will an upper level jet streak on the southern flank
of the trough that will strengthen overnight, with a commensurate
increase in upper level divergence as the left exit region and
associated thermally indirect ageostrophic circulation of the jet
crosses the eastern Great Lakes overnight.

The steady rain will be done by Sunday morning at most locations,
except east of Lake Ontario where it will linger through around mid
morning. The leading edge of the shortwave and associated PVA will
exit into New England Sunday, but a secondary mid-level trough axis
will drop southward across the region Sunday afternoon. This will
bring the risk of more showers, and possibly a thunderstorm. A west
to east line of storms is likely to form, within this trough as well
as on a low level convergent wind flow boundary. This line will drop
southward across metro Buffalo, Batavia and the Genesee Valley with
downpours of rain. Temperatures will remain below normal with highs
mainly in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A slow moving mid-level trough and low over Southeast Canada & the
Northeast to start the period will provide the continued opportunity
for showers and some thunderstorms into the early afternoon on
Monday. Shower potential will increase at times as a few different
shortwave troughs track through the larger trough. The combination
of the forcing from the troughs along with synoptic moisture in
place will bring a round of showers with some embedded thunderstorms
to the region Sunday night into Monday morning. Cooler temperatures
aloft of around 5C moving over the warmer lake waters which are
around 15 to 17C will also help aid in some increased instability
within areas of showers with the passing troughs.

Sunday night, best potential for showers will be early on in the
evening and later in the overnight with somewhat of a break between
two passing shortwave troughs. Evening showers may have a few
embedded thunderstorms with earlier daytime heating still providing
some instability. Rainfall amounts should generally remain below a
tenth of an inch for the night.

Monday, a shortwave trough axis will drop southeast across the area
around the time of the morning commute, causing a batch of showers
to move through. As the trough axis tracks out of the area, showers
will taper off from northwest to southeast through the morning and
into the early afternoon. Showers will linger the longest south of
Lake Ontario where the combination of upsloping, daytime heating and
instability/moisture from the warmer lakes will help prolong showers
for a few additional hours. A few embedded thunderstorms will be
possible once again for Monday as well. Rainfall on Monday should be
limited to a tenth of an inch for most areas, but a few higher
amounts within any heavier showers will be possible.

Monday night through Tuesday night, any lingering showers later
Monday afternoon will dissipate or move out of the area. A sharp
ridge will track toward the area on Monday evening pushing drier air
into the region while also increasing heights. The ridge axis will
center over the region on Tuesday, resulting in fair dry weather
through at least Tuesday night.

Temperatures for the period will be below normal for both Monday and
Tuesday afternoon, with Monday's max temperatures around 10 degrees
below normal for most areas. A notable warmup for Tuesday will bring
temperatures closer to, but still below normal with highs in the mid
60s to low 70s. Nightly lows will be closer, but still mostly below
normal for all three nights, with Monday night being the coolest as
the ridge moves in but warm air advection doesn't start to increase
temperatures yet.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
On Wednesday deep-layer ridging draped across New York State at the
start of the day will slide east into New England and flatten a
bit...while a shortwave trough pivots across the Upper Great Lakes
and central Ontario. The slowly departing ridge will maintain enough
of a grip upon our region to bring us another dry day along with
seasonably warm highs in the mid 70s to around 80...though a
southwesterly flow will help to keep the northeastern shores of
Lakes Erie and Ontario a bit cooler.

Wednesday night and early Thursday the aforementioned shortwave
trough will slide by to our north. Cannot rule out a stray shower
along our northern periphery attendant to this feature's passage...
however this should largely just produce a temporary increase in
cloud cover. Immediately behind this the GFS attempts to bring a
convectively-induced wave and associated pcpn directly across our
region during the course of Thursday...however this looks overdone
and is also a marked outlier compared to the other medium-range
guidance. Have therefore discounted this solution in favor of a
continued mainly dry forecast through Thursday...with just an
isolated pop-up shower or two possible during the afternoon with
diurnal heating. Otherwise Thursday should be a bit warmer...with
highs ranging from the upper 70s across the higher terrain to the
lower to mid 80s across the lower elevations...though it will again
be cooler immediately northeast of the lakes.

Thursday night and Friday the next mid-level trough will dig across
the Great Lakes and Northeast...with an associated cold front
sliding across our region during Friday. This should bring us a
round of scattered convection...followed by a return to drier
weather Friday night and Saturday as surface high pressure and drier
air builds in behind this system. As for temperatures...highs on
Friday will be very similar to those of Thursday...before pulling
back a little into the mid 70s to around 80 for Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A mid level trough and frontal wave will continue to support an area
of widespread light to moderate rain crossing the region from west
to east overnight. The pockets of moderate rain will bring reduced
VSBY at times. Initial VFR CIGS will deteriorate to MVFR and spotty
IFR towards the tail end of the rain early this morning as the low
levels saturate.

The lower CIGS early this morning will mostly scatter out by late
morning, and there will be a brief break in the rain following the
early morning exit of the widespread rain from the frontal wave.
Midday into the afternoon, another mid level trough and surface cold
front will move southeast across the area, and combine with modest
daytime instability and lake/terrain generated low level convergence
boundaries to generate another area of showers and scattered
thunderstorms crossing the area from northwest to southeast. Expect
areas of MVFR CIGS/VSBY to develop, with local/brief IFR in
thunderstorms.

The more organized showers and scattered thunderstorms will taper
off this evening, although a few scattered showers may linger
overnight. CIGS/VSBY should improve back to VFR initially in the
evening, but areas of MVFR CIGS will likely develop overnight in
stratus.

Outlook...

Monday...Areas of MVFR with scattered showers.
Tuesday through Thursday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
As westerly winds back off temporarily tonight, all that is left
of the small crafts are along the eastern shoreline of Lake
Ontario. These winds will ramp up again Sunday with another
round of Small Craft Advisory conditions on both lakes. Also, a
weak surface wave of low pressure passing by to the south this
evening will cause winds to temporarily shift to the northeast
on Lake Erie, and these winds may pick up to close to small
craft criteria few a few hours.

Winds will come down some Sunday night through Monday, but will
still be strong enough to produce choppy conditions on both lakes.
More favorable winds and waves for boating will return by the middle
of next week.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Beach Hazards Statement through this afternoon for NYZ005>007.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT early this morning for
         LOZ044-045.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Apffel/Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...Apffel/Hitchcock/Thomas
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Apffel/Hitchcock

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1023 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

NYZ010-019-085-100230-
Northern Erie-Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
1023 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Moderate west to southwest winds may bring hazardous swimming
conditions to Lake Erie Beaches again on Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ008-011>014-020-021-100230-
Lewis-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Cattaraugus-Allegany-
1023 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ005>007-100230-
Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-
1023 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.

Moderate west winds may bring another round of hazardous swimming
conditions to Lake Ontario Beaches Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ001>004-100230-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-
1023 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Moderate west winds may bring another round of hazardous swimming
conditions to Lake Ontario Beaches Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-100230-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
1023 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of Lake
Erie, Lake Ontario, and the Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf