Small Craft Advisory 50, NWS Buffalo, NY

997 
WHUS71 KBUF 271011
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
611 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

LEZ020-271815-
/O.EXB.KBUF.SC.Y.0050.240527T1500Z-240528T0300Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
611 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO
11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots expected.

* WHERE...The Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor.

* WHEN...From 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-271815-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0050.240527T1800Z-240529T0000Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
611 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 5 to 8 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...From 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

662 
WHUS71 KBUF 271800
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
200 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

LEZ040-041-280200-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0050.000000T0000Z-240529T0000Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
200 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 5 to 8 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ020-280200-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0050.000000T0000Z-240528T0300Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
200 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots.

* WHERE...The Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor.

* WHEN...Until 11 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$
Reynolds

127 
WHUS71 KBUF 271807
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
207 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

LOZ042>045-280215-
/O.EXB.KBUF.SC.Y.0050.000000T0000Z-240529T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
207 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 4 to 7 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...Until 11 PM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-280215-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0050.000000T0000Z-240529T0000Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
207 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 5 to 8 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ020-280215-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0050.000000T0000Z-240528T0300Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
207 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots.

* WHERE...The Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor.

* WHEN...Until 11 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$
Reynolds

869 
WHUS71 KBUF 271941
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
341 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

LEZ040-041-280345-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0050.000000T0000Z-240529T0000Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
341 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 5 to 8 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ020-280300-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0050.000000T0000Z-240528T0300Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
341 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots.

* WHERE...The Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor.

* WHEN...Until 11 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042>045-280345-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0050.000000T0000Z-240529T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
341 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...Until 11 PM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

729 
WHUS71 KBUF 280209
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1009 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

LEZ020-280600-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0050.000000T0000Z-240528T0600Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
1009 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots.

* WHERE...The Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor.

* WHEN...Until 2 AM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-281015-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0050.000000T0000Z-240529T0000Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
1009 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 5 to 8 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042>045-281015-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0050.000000T0000Z-240529T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
1009 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...Until 11 PM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

506 
WHUS71 KBUF 280358
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1158 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

LEZ020-280900-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0050.000000T0000Z-240528T0900Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
1158 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots.

* WHERE...The Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor.

* WHEN...Until 5 AM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-281200-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0050.000000T0000Z-240529T0000Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
1158 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...West winds to 30 knots and waves 4 to 7 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042>045-281200-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0050.000000T0000Z-240529T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
1158 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...Until 11 PM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

490 
WHUS71 KBUF 280818
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
418 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024

LEZ020-281500-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0050.000000T0000Z-240528T1500Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
418 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west 10 to 15
  knots.

* WHERE...The Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor.

* WHEN...Until 11 AM EDT this morning.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-281630-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0050.000000T0000Z-240529T0000Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
418 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 25 knots becoming west and waves 4
  to 7 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042>045-281630-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0050.000000T0000Z-240529T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
418 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...Until 11 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

123 
WHUS71 KBUF 281439
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1039 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024

LEZ020-281545-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0050.000000T0000Z-240528T1500Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
1039 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Winds have fallen below SCA levels. Breezy conditions will persist
with choppy conditions on the Upper Niagara River today.


$$

LEZ040-041-282245-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0050.000000T0000Z-240529T0000Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
1039 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042>045-282245-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0050.000000T0000Z-240529T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
1039 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...Until 11 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$
Reynolds

566 
WHUS71 KBUF 290001
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
801 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024

LEZ040-041-290115-
/O.EXP.KBUF.SC.Y.0050.000000T0000Z-240529T0000Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
801 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...


$$

LOZ042>045-290300-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0050.000000T0000Z-240529T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
801 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...Until 11 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

311 
WHUS71 KBUF 290149
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
949 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024

LOZ042>045-290300-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0050.000000T0000Z-240529T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
949 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...


$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1239 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
While the VAST majority of Memorial Day will be rain free...a
relatively deep storm system moving out of Lower Michigan will push
a pair of frontal systems through our area that will result in
several rounds of showers and drenching thunderstorms.
Unfortunately...unsettled weather will persist through mid week
while it will become progressively cooler.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY EVENING/...
A warm front pushing northeastward across our region overnight
will generate some showers...but with waning instability...the
coverage and intensity of this activity should continue to drop
off. Most areas will have trouble 'measuring' any pcpn.

Memorial Day...a deepening low pressure system over Michigan looks
like it will bring a couple of rounds of widespread showers. The
primary forcing mechanism appears to be PVA associated with the
approaching mid-level trough and a pre- frontal trough. While mid
lapse rates are NOT forecast to be very impressive (mainly less
than 7 deg c/km), there will be a lot of wind shear with this trough
with 850mb winds reaching around 50 knots and some directional
shear. The primary severe weather threat is strong winds which could
be transported to the surface within stronger convection. The main
forecast challenge will be determining when and where there will be
ample sunshine to destabilize the atmosphere. In general it will be
a mostly cloudy day, but breaks of sun are possible and it will not
take much sun to produce ample instability to cause thunderstorms.

Following mesoscale guidance (particularly the 00Z HRRR), there is a
slightly greater risk for severe weather east of Lake Ontario, where
the shortwave trough will move through during the afternoon hours.
Given the wind shear in place, cannot rule out an isolated tornado
IF there ample sunshine. However, without destabilization from
breaks of sunshine, this simply could turn out to be a non-event.
SPC has the entire forecast area in a marginal risk for severe
weather, but would not be surprised to see the Eastern Lake Ontario
region to be upgraded to a slight risk.

In addition, heavy rain is also a concern. Given the environment
with PWATS in the 1.5 inch range and short MBE vectors...there will
be an elevated risk for torrential downpours and localized flooding
concerns. This could materialize if storms train across the same
areas, especially if this happens in areas with steep terrain or
urban areas.

Monday night...broad area of low pressure to our northwest will
slowly track NNE into and across Quebec overnight. As the low
departs...showers and storms coverage will decrease with the passage
of the cold front. Although...we still can't rule out a few
lingering showers overnight. Overall...much of the region will
see drier weather as the dry slot works through the Lower Lakes.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The upper level pattern will feature a trough over the Great Lakes
region Tuesday through Wednesday night. There will be a series of
shortwave troughs that will rotate cyclonically and keep unsettled
and cooler conditions across western and north central NY.

The first shortwave trough and associated surface reflection will
move north of the forecast area Tuesday. A southwest flow will
increase through the day with breezy conditions northeast of Lake
Erie and east of Lake Ontario by afternoon. At 850mb, winds will be
near 40kts with temperatures around +5C. Cool air aloft during
daytime heating will create instability across the region. Showers
will increase in coverage through the daytime hours with a
convergence zone possibly forming from the Niagara Frontier to the
Syracuse region. An isolated thunderstorm can't be ruled out.
Showers will quickly diminish in coverage Tuesday evening.

The next shortwave trough will sharpen as it approaches the region
from the north Tuesday night. A cold front will move into the Saint
Lawrence Valley by Wednesday morning. The chance for showers will
increase from north to south across the region Wednesday. Showers
will increase in coverage across the region Wednesday afternoon with
a low chance of thunderstorms. Ridging builds into the region
Wednesday night and mostly dry weather is expected overnight.

Notably cooler conditions will begin on Wednesday with daytime highs
in the mid 60s, upper 50s across the higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A relatively quiet stretch of weather expected as we close out the
month of May and move into June this period, with mainly dry weather
and a gentle day to day warming trend.

To open the period Thursday, the region will be situated under a
broad, positively tilted upper level trough centered over the
Canadian Maritimes. To the west, a strong, progressive ridge of high
pressure will be building eastward over the Great Lakes region. The
surface high from this feature will "undercut" the initial upper
level troughing to a degree, supporting fair albeit cooler than
normal weather for Thursday. Long range guidance is indicating an
uptick in moisture aloft as the trough axis pivots southward across
the eastern Great Lakes later Thursday or Thursday evening, with
some even producing some spotty light QPF as it moves through. Have
bumped up cloud cover by a small amount, but otherwise at this
juncture have stayed close to NBM output which places just sChc PoPs
across portions of the North Country Thursday afternoon.

The ridge of high pressure will begin to shrink as it quickly moves
across the Great Lakes and towards the East Coast Friday through
Saturday. On its heels will be a large troughing system over south-
central Canada and the Northern Plains. A robust shortwave rotating
through the base of this trough will move into the Midwest and into
the western Great Lakes in the back half of the weekend, which will
cause increased chances for showers and possibly thunderstorms
across our area late Saturday night through Sunday.

In regards to temperatures...Still under the influence of the upper
trough, temps Thursday and Thursday night will likely run some 5-10
degrees below normal with highs in the low to mid 60s and lows
ranging in the 40s. By the weekend however, temps should warm to
near or slight above normal with highs ranging in the 70s and lows
in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
While a warm front will push northeastward across the region
overnight...most areas will maintain VFR flight rules. There will be
MVFR cigs though across the western Southern Tier and the higher
terrain of the Finger Lakes region.

Also, winds aloft will increase but the stronger winds will be a
bit above 2k feet. This will result in wind shear but it appears
slightly too high to include LLWS in the TAFS.

An area of showers and thunderstorms is then forecast to push across
the far western counties during the morning hours with a few hours
of MVFR conditions possible within the activity. The showers and
storms will move to the Eastern Lake Ontario region for the
afternoon. Thunderstorms for that particular area will likely
include torrential downpours and possibly strong to damaging wind
gusts.

Speaking of which...more scattered convection will redevelop over
the western counties after 18z. This convection could also include
strong to severe weather...although the bulk of the time will
feature VFR weather.

Outlook...

Monday night...VFR/MVFR. Showers and thunderstorms likely.
Tuesday and Wednesday...Restrictions possible with showers.
Thursday and Friday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
While showers will move through the Lower Great Lakes overnight...
the risk for convection has greatly diminished. Otherwise moderate
easterlies will be in place for the bulk of the region.

Winds will freshen on Monday in the wake of a warm front and will
remain elevated through Tuesday in the wake of a cold front. Winds
could nudge into the 15 to 25 knots range with small craft headlines
likely to be needed during this time period.This also could require
beach hazards statements for dangerous swimming conditions.

Strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds possible Monday.

Lighter winds and wave action return Wednesday through the rest of
the week.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...AR/Apffel/RSH
SHORT TERM...HSK
LONG TERM...PP
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...AR/Apffel/RSH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1040 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-280245-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-
Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
1040 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western and north central New
York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

There is a risk that thunderstorms on Monday will be severe with a
risk of damaging wind gusts and large hail. Storms may also produce
heavy rain and localized flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-280245-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
1040 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of Lake
Erie, Lake Ontario, and the Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

There is a risk that thunderstorms on Monday will be severe with a
risk of damaging wind gusts and large hail.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

Apffel