Small Craft Advisory 42, NWS Buffalo, NY

748 
WHUS71 KBUF 191342
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
942 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

LEZ040-041-192145-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0042.240419T1600Z-240420T0400Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
942 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...Until midnight EDT tonight.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ020-192145-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0042.240419T1600Z-240420T0100Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
942 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots expected.

* WHERE...The Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor.

* WHEN...Until 9 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ044-045-192145-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0042.000000T0000Z-240420T0100Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
942 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...South winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Sodus Bay to 
  the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...Until 9 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

Hitchcock

577 
WHUS71 KBUF 191959
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
359 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

LEZ040-041-200400-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0042.000000T0000Z-240420T0400Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
359 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...Until midnight EDT tonight.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ020-200100-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0042.000000T0000Z-240420T0100Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
359 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots.

* WHERE...The Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor.

* WHEN...Until 9 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ044-045-200100-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0042.000000T0000Z-240420T0100Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
359 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Sodus Bay to 
  the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...Until 9 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

332 
WHUS71 KBUF 200046
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
846 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

LEZ020-LOZ044-045-200200-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0042.000000T0000Z-240420T0100Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
846 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Winds and waves have diminished.

$$

LEZ040-041-200400-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0042.000000T0000Z-240420T0400Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
846 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...Until midnight EDT tonight.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

922 
WHUS71 KBUF 200202
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1002 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

LEZ040-041-201015-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0042.000000T0000Z-240420T0400Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.SC.Y.0043.240420T1100Z-240421T0300Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
1002 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN NOW IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 11 PM EDT
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...From 7 AM to 11 PM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ020-201015-
/O.NEW.KBUF.SC.Y.0043.240420T1400Z-240421T0000Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
1002 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EDT
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 20 knots expected.

* WHERE...The Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor.

* WHEN...From 10 AM to 8 PM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
130 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will quickly pass across our region overnight,
with fair weather. A cold front will move east across the area
Friday, bringing another round of gusty showers to the region.
There will be one more round of scattered showers Saturday
afternoon, then dry weather will return for Sunday. The weekend
will be quite cool with a stretch of below average temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Regional radar shows an area of precipitation stretching from Lower
Michigan to Kentucky late tonight. For the overnight period, fairly
quiet with partly cloudy skies across western NY and mostly cloudy
skies across north central NY. Temperatures will rise towards Friday
morning as southerly flow increases ahead of the next system.

Friday, another sharp mid level trough and cold front will cross the
eastern Great Lakes. A brief period of ascent and low level
convergence associated with this feature will support a band of
showers arriving in Western NY during the morning, then spreading
east to the eastern Lake Ontario region by afternoon. The main band
of showers will be narrow and brief, although there may be a few
more scattered showers popping up both in front of, and behind the
main band of rain. Instability is minimal, but a fairly strong wind
field aloft may allow a few of the showers to produce gusty winds
even without thunder.

A 50+ knot low level jet will be found in the warm sector ahead of
the cold front. Ascent ahead of the mid level shortwave and poor low
level lapse rates will keep much of this aloft, but there may still
be gusts above 30 mph Friday. Temperatures will briefly rise into
the upper 50s to low 60s just ahead of the front, then begin to pull
back in the afternoon as cold advection increases.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Broad troughing overhead of the Great Lakes Friday will continue to
push into the lower Great Lakes by Saturday morning. This longwave
trough will then remain overhead of the Great Lakes throughout the
weekend. Within this troughing pattern a shortwave trough will pass
through the longwave pattern supporting some active weather for the
start of the weekend.

A shortwave will begin to round the base of the trough Friday night,
supporting a the low pressure system over northern Ontario to
strengthen and gradually move into central Quebec by Friday night.
By Friday evening, rain showers will be exiting the North Country,
while a dry air mass fills with the approaching surface ridge.

The aforementioned potent shortwave will then round the base of mid-
level trough and cross the area Saturday. This will support a
secondary cold front to pass across the region starting Saturday
morning with an uptick in rain shower activity Saturday afternoon.

A broad area of surface high pressure will then push into western
and north central New York Saturday night through Sunday. While this
will promote mainly dry weather across the region, the longwave mid-
level trough axis overhead will promote cool temperatures. Highs
Sunday will range in the upper 40s to low 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure ridged across the Ohio Valley and Upper Great Lakes at
the start of this period will build eastward across our area
Monday...then will slide out across New England Monday night while a
low-amplitude mid-level trough and attendant surface low push across
the Upper MidWest and Upper Great Lakes. The high will provide us
with a plenty of sunshine and high temps recovering to near-normal
levels in the mid 50s to lower 60s on Monday...with fair dry weather
then continuing Monday night...albeit with a general increase in
cloud cover out ahead of the next system. With a milder airmass and
general south to southwest flow in place...lows Monday night will be
milder than those of the previous couple of nights...with mins
ranging from the mid 30s across interior sections of the Southern
Tier and North Country to the lower 40s across the lake plains.

While some differences persist in the details...the medium range
guidance remains in good general agreement on pushing the above
mentioned mid-level trough and associated surface reflection
eastward and across the Great Lakes and Northeast between Tuesday
and Wednesday. This system will bring our next general opportunity
for some showers...with a current model consensus suggesting the
peak of these coming between later Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday
night...followed by sharply diminishing pcpn potential/coverage on
Wednesday as Canadian high pressure and notably colder/much drier
air builds in behind the departing surface low. While some guidance
continues to suggest the potential for the incoming colder airmass
to be cold enough to provoke a lake response Wednesday...the
combination of its rather dry nature and strong late April diurnal
influences will help to prevent the development of much more than
some cloud cover.

After that...the aforementioned surface high will continue to build
across our region Wednesday night and Thursday...with plentiful dry
air and subsidence attendant to the ridge providing us with dry and
uneventful weather through the end of the period.

With respect to temperatures Tuesday through Thursday...expect
slightly above normal temps (upper 50s-mid 60s) to prevail on the
warm side of the system on Tuesday. Following the passage of its
trailing cold front...temps will fall back to below average levels
in the 40s on Wednesday...with steady or falling temps possible
during the day depending upon the strength of the cold advection
regime behind the low. A chilly night with lows around the freezing
mark will then follow for Wednesday night...before sunshine and
airmass modification allow highs to recover a bit into the upper 40s
to mid 50s on Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR flight conditions are across the region late tonight. Model
guidance is pessimistic with MVFR conditions holding at KART
overnight. It seems like enough dry air has moved into the region so
will hold previaling VFR overnight. A cold front is approaching
the region with an area of showers extending from Michigan to
western Ohio late tonight. Rain showers will enter far western
NY after daybreak and move east through the day. Overall, light
showers are expected. Steady showers will reach KROC by 16z and
KART by 19z.

Flight conditions will deteriorate from west to east, mainly behind
the steadier showers Friday. Mainly low-end MVFR conditions with the
exception of IFR at KJHW and a brief period of possible IFR at
KBUF this afternoon. Flight conditions will improve shortly
after showers end from west to east late Friday afternoon
through Friday evening.

Southerly winds will increase Friday morning, then veer to the
southwest to west tomorrow afternoon behind the cold front. Wind
gusts may reach 25-30 knots ahead and behind the cold front.

Outlook...

Saturday...MVFR/VFR CIGS with a chance of showers in the afternoon.
Sunday and Monday...Mainly VFR.
Tuesday...VFR/MVFR with showers becoming likely in the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front will cross the lower Great Lakes Friday. South winds
will increase ahead of the front late tonight and Friday morning,
then veer to the southwest and west Friday afternoon behind the
front. This will likely produce a brief period of Small Craft
Advisory conditions on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario midday Friday
through Friday evening.

Winds will remain elevated this weekend, with Small Craft Advisory
conditions at times on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. The strongest
winds will likely be in the afternoon and evening each day.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock/HSK
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock/HSK/Thomas
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...HSK/Thomas
MARINE...Hitchcock

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
755 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-191200-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-
Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
755 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western and north central New
York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-191200-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
755 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of Lake
Erie, Lake Ontario, and the Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf