Small Craft Advisory 27, NWS Buffalo, NY

310 
WHUS71 KBUF 141819
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
219 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024

LOZ042-150230-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0027.240314T2100Z-240315T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
219 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...Until 5 AM EDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-150230-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0027.240315T0000Z-240315T1200Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
219 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING
TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to Sodus Bay.

* WHEN...From 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

969 
WHUS71 KBUF 150222
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1022 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024

LOZ042-150900-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0027.000000T0000Z-240315T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
1022 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 10 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...Until 5 AM EDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-151030-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0027.000000T0000Z-240315T1200Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
1022 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...North winds 10 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to Sodus Bay.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

639 
WHUS71 KBUF 150809
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
409 AM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024

LOZ042-150915-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0027.000000T0000Z-240315T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
409 AM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Winds have subsided below SCA levels.

$$

LOZ043-150915-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0027.000000T0000Z-240315T1200Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
409 AM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Winds have subsided below SCA levels.

$$
Reynolds

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
738 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and dry weather for much of today, then low pressure will bring
chances for rain showers by this evening into Friday. Dry weather
briefly returns for Saturday before a cold front bring more
unsettled weather by Saturday night. Turning colder Sunday with
rain and snow showers.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
All is quiet here across the region this morning but it isn't
going to last all day. Regional radars over Illinois and Indiana
shows the convection (showers and thunderstorms) that will
eventually impact our area.

Clouds will increase today but dry and mild weather is expected for
a significant portion of the day. Temperatures anticipated to rise
into the 60s to even low 70s in spots. It will be a bit cooler east
of Lake Ontario where reading will be in the 50s. That said...low
pressure exiting Kansas as of 11Z is expected to track
northeast to Illinois by this afternoon then east along a west
to east oriented frontal boundary draped across the region. DPVA
and moisture (PW values of 1.0-1.25) surging east and northeast
will bring increasing chances of showers by late this
afternoon. We even could see a few thunderstorms, mainly focused
across parts of Western NY where guidance shows MUCAPE values
of 200-400 J/KG.

Tonight...a few waves of low pressure riding along the
aforementioned west to east frontal boundary will bring a period of
light to at times moderate rain to the region. There even still
could be some embedded thunder early on, but instability will be
waning overnight. In terms of rainfall....we could see some decent
amounts, especially for locales that see convection. Right
now...basin average will run from 0.25 to 0.50 of an inch, with
localized higher amounts.

Low pressure will exit off to our east early Friday morning pulling
the front south of the region. Showers will slowly tapering off with
some pockets of drizzle in the favored upslope regions. High
pressure will then build in from the north in the afternoon with dry
weather returning by Friday evening. Not quite as warm on Friday as
a cooler air mass begins to settle into the eastern Great Lakes.
Highs in the cooler spots will be found in the 40s with a range of
50s elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A quick moving shortwave ridge will scoot across the Lower Great
Lakes later Friday night through Saturday. This will provide our
forecast area with MAINLY fair dry weather to start St Patrick's
weekend...but as we approach Saturday evening...a cold front
will approach from Lake Huron and Lower Michigan.

A robust shortwave rounding the base of an upstream longwave trough
will then push the strong cold front through the region Saturday
night. This will nearly guarantee that just about everyone will
experience some showers with the pcpn probably changing over to
some negligible wet snow for the higher terrain by daybreak.
QPF will be a tenth of an inch or less with any snow accums in
the higher terrain being limited to elevated or grassy surfaces.
Road temps will be ABOVE freezing so there will be little if
any chance that there will be any travel issues.

St Patrick's Day will then be cloudy and GUARANTEED
CHILLIER...as colder air in the wake of the aforementioned front
will lead to H85 temps dropping to around -8c. This will not be
quite cold enough aloft to support realized instability over
the lakes...but in combination with additional shortwaves moving
through...there will be some lake enhanced rain showers around.
The bulk of the showers will be found through midday and also
mainly focused east-northeast of the lakes. It will be quite
breezy as well...courtesy of a 35- 40kt low level jet within a
cold advective pattern will produce a definite bite to the wind.
While conditions will be better than the past few years...those
attending St Patrick's Day parades should prepare for the
chilly winds and possible nuisance pcpn.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A significant pattern shift to much more winter-like conditions will
take place during this period as a deep upper level trough becomes
established across the eastern third of the CONUS.

Synoptic moisture remains in place Sunday night...as airmass off the
deck continues to slowly cool, with 850Ts getting down around -10C
late. This will allow for scattered lake enhanced and eventually
westerly flow lake effect snow showers to develop east of the Lakes.
A secondary cold front will move across the area on Monday bringing
the likelihood for a period widespread snow showers for most areas.
Winds veer WNW/NW behind the boundary with widespread snow shower
activity tapering off to more upslope/lake effect dominant for
Monday night into Tuesday as 850Ts bottom out around -12C. Some
accumulating upslope/lake effect snows will be possible during this
timeframe, although mid March sun angle will at least somewhat
disrupt lake effect and hinder accumulations during the daylight
hours. Ground temps will take a bit to cool down as well.
Temperatures will be running some 5-10 degrees below average (15 deg
below in some cases), with daytime highs possibly not reaching the
freezing mark across the higher terrain Monday and Tuesday.

High pressure will then try to ridge in across the area toward mid
week. Drier air and subsidence associated with this feature will
help taper off the more persistent lake effect/upslope snows,
however it will remain cold enough aloft that a few lingering lake
effect snow showers will remain possible, especially downwind of the
Lake Ontario. Daytime highs will remain below average through
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A few pockets of fog will be possible near the lakes which may
bring some brief impacts to TAF sites (KIAG) this morning.

Otherwise...VFR will dominate a significant portion of this TAF
cycle. That said...low pressure will track east along a east to west
oriented frontal boundary across the eastern Great Lakes today. This
will bring deteriorating conditions by late this afternoon and then
into this evening. CIGS will lower from VFR to MVFR-IFR with
increasing chances for showers, and we even could see a thunderstorm
as this system nears the region.

Tonight...the aforementioned low pressure will track east along the
frontal boundary bringing widespread IFR CIGS and lower VSBYS to TAF
sites.

Outlook...
Friday...IFR/MVFR to VFR. A chance of showers.
Saturday...Mainly VFR.
Sunday...VFR/MVFR with scattered rain and snow showers. Monday and
Tuesday...MVFR/VFR with lake effect snow showers southeast of the
lakes.

&&

.MARINE...
Light winds and minimal wave action expected today on both lakes.

Tonight...low pressure will track east along a west to east oriented
front draped across the region. As the low moves east into and then
across the region it will bring increasing chances for rain showers.
There will also be a chance of a few thunderstorms. Winds will also
increase and become northeast with conditions nearing Small Craft
levels on Lake Ontario.

Low pressure will exit east of the region by early Friday morning
with winds slowly subsiding as high pressure builds into the region.
There may still be some light to modest chop on the lakes but wave
action will lessen by Friday afternoon and evening. Light winds and
wave action will persist into Saturday before the next chance of
small craft conditions arrives on Sunday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...JM/RSH
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...AR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
518 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-141030-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-
Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
518 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western and north central New
York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-141030-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
518 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

SLZ022-024-141030-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
518 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of the
Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf