Small Craft Advisory 101, NWS Buffalo, NY

328 
WHUS71 KBUF 161445
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
945 AM EST Mon Dec 16 2024

LEZ040-041-162245-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0101.241216T1800Z-241218T0600Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
945 AM EST Mon Dec 16 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds to 30 knots and waves 8 to 11 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...From 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042>045-162245-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0101.241216T2100Z-241218T1200Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
945 AM EST Mon Dec 16 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds to 30 knots and waves 8 to 11 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...From 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

JJR

103 
WHUS71 KBUF 161749
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1249 PM EST Mon Dec 16 2024

LEZ020-170200-
/O.EXB.KBUF.SC.Y.0101.241217T0300Z-241217T2100Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
1249 PM EST Mon Dec 16 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM
EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots expected.

* WHERE...The Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor.

* WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-170200-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0101.241216T1800Z-241218T0600Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
1249 PM EST Mon Dec 16 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds to 30 knots and waves 8 to 11 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042>045-170200-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0101.241216T2100Z-241218T1200Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
1249 PM EST Mon Dec 16 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds to 30 knots and waves 8 to 11 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...From 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

367 
WHUS71 KBUF 162004
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
304 PM EST Mon Dec 16 2024

LEZ040-041-170330-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0101.000000T0000Z-241218T0600Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
304 PM EST Mon Dec 16 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds to 30 knots and waves 7 to 10 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042>045-170330-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0101.241216T2100Z-241218T1200Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
304 PM EST Mon Dec 16 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds to 30 knots and waves 8 to 11 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ020-170330-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0101.241217T0300Z-241217T2100Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
304 PM EST Mon Dec 16 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING
TO 4 PM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots expected.

* WHERE...The Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor.

* WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

JJR

200 
WHUS71 KBUF 170217
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
917 PM EST Mon Dec 16 2024

LEZ040-041-171030-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0101.000000T0000Z-241218T0600Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
917 PM EST Mon Dec 16 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds to 30 knots and waves 7 to 10 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042>045-171030-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0101.000000T0000Z-241218T1200Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
917 PM EST Mon Dec 16 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 8 to 11 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ020-171030-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0101.241217T0300Z-241217T2100Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
917 PM EST Mon Dec 16 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots expected.

* WHERE...The Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

Hitchcock

624 
WHUS71 KBUF 170828
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
328 AM EST Tue Dec 17 2024

LEZ040-041-171630-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0101.000000T0000Z-241218T0600Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
328 AM EST Tue Dec 17 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 6 to 9 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042>045-171630-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0101.000000T0000Z-241218T1200Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
328 AM EST Tue Dec 17 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 6 to 9 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ020-171630-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0101.000000T0000Z-241217T2100Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
328 AM EST Tue Dec 17 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots.

* WHERE...The Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

377 
WHUS71 KBUF 171420
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
920 AM EST Tue Dec 17 2024

LEZ040-041-172230-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0101.000000T0000Z-241218T0600Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
920 AM EST Tue Dec 17 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 6 to 9 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042>045-172230-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0101.000000T0000Z-241218T1200Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
920 AM EST Tue Dec 17 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 6 to 9 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ020-172100-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0101.000000T0000Z-241217T2100Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
920 AM EST Tue Dec 17 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots.

* WHERE...The Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

Hitchcock

564 
WHUS71 KBUF 172027
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
327 PM EST Tue Dec 17 2024

LEZ020-172130-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0101.000000T0000Z-241217T2100Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
327 PM EST Tue Dec 17 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Southwest winds will continue to diminish through the evening 
hours.

$$

LEZ040-041-180600-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0101.000000T0000Z-241218T0600Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
327 PM EST Tue Dec 17 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 10 to 20 knots and waves 4 to 7 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042>045-180615-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0101.000000T0000Z-241218T1200Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
327 PM EST Tue Dec 17 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 6 to 9 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

Thomas

630 
WHUS71 KBUF 180305
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1005 PM EST Tue Dec 17 2024

LOZ042-043-180415-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0101.000000T0000Z-241218T1200Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
1005 PM EST Tue Dec 17 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

$$

LEZ040-041-180415-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0101.000000T0000Z-241218T0600Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
1005 PM EST Tue Dec 17 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

$$

LOZ044-045-181115-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0101.000000T0000Z-241218T1200Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
1005 PM EST Tue Dec 17 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 4 to 7 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Sodus Bay to 
  the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

135 
WHUS71 KBUF 180728
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
228 AM EST Wed Dec 18 2024

LOZ044-045-180830-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0101.000000T0000Z-241218T1200Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
228 AM EST Wed Dec 18 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
139 AM EST Mon Dec 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A brief break will follow after the wintry mix and rain showers
early this morning before the next system moves into the area
this afternoon and tonight. The pattern remains active for much
of the coming week with only a 12 to 24 hour break between
systems. Both synoptic and lake enhanced/effect precipitation
will be possible at different times through the week. Above
normal temperatures to start the new work week will cool to
below normal by the end of the week and into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Mixed wintry precipitation will taper off from west to east this
morning. While most areas will only experience a little light
rain...boundary layer temperatures are within a couple degrees of
32...so there may be some patches of freezing rain/drizzle. This
will mainly be the case across the interior of the Srn Tier....the
Finger Lakes region and sites east of Lake Ontario. So far this
evening though...there have been few reports of ZR-.
Fortunately...as moisture is removed from the dendritic growth zone
overnight...the forcing (mid level shortwave) needed for the pcpn
will exit to the east as well.

Today, a break in the precipitation is expected through about early
to mid-afternoon. A large occluding surface low will track from the
upper Midwest into Ontario through the day. At the same time, the
systems warm front and cold front will track toward the forecast
area, increasing the potential for showers starting around mid-
afternoon on Monday. A strengthening low level jet within the warm
sector of the system will bring a surge of moisture northward.
Forcing/ascent from the low level jet and frontal boundaries will
blossom a widespread area of rain by late afternoon. Temperatures
will be on the milder side within the warm sector, with most highs
in the lower to mid 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Monday night vertically stacked low pressure will make its way from
a little north of Lake Superior to James Bay...and in the process
will push its attendant warm front across our area during the
evening...quickly followed by its trailing cold front overnight.
Sufficiently deep moisture and lift attendant to these features will
generate a round of widespread light to perhaps briefly moderate
rainfall...with nighttime basin-average amounts ranging from a tenth
to a quarter inch south of Lake Ontario to a third to two thirds of
an inch across the eastern Lake Ontario region...with the highest
amounts across the southern Tug Hill region due to upsloping. During
the first part of the night...southerly winds may also gust to as
high as 40 mph or so in our typically favored regions of downslope
flow.

Following the passage of the system's cold front...a rather brisk
cyclonic westerly flow will gradually feed colder air back across
the region later Monday night and Tuesday. This being said...the
incoming colder airmass will not be all that cold...with consensus
850 mb temperatures only dipping to the -2C to -5C range over Lake
Erie...and to -6C to -7C over Lake Ontario. With lake surface
temperatures currently running in the lower 40s F...this will not
result in an environment conducive to lake effect processes...with
only some weak lake enhancement possible over Lake Ontario should
some of the colder guidance verify. Thus...as mid-level moisture
gets rapidly stripped away later Monday night following the cold
frontal passage...merely expect the widespread rain to quickly give
way to some upslope rain and snow showers across the higher terrain
east of the lakes...with these then fading out from west to east
through Tuesday/Tuesday evening in tandem with surface-based ridging
nosing northeastward from the Ohio Valley.

Immediately with/behind the cold frontal passage...winds will also
quickly veer to the west-southwest and become rather gusty in the
typical areas east-northeast of the lakes later Monday night and
early Tuesday...with these likely to be greatest downwind of Lake
Erie. The exact magnitude of these gusts remains in question at this
time as the guidance continues to exhibit notable differences in the
strength of the low level wind field immediately behind the front...
with the NAM remaining strongest and suggestive of the potential for
some marginally-advisory worthy gusts to 45-50 mph...while the GFS
remains weaker and notably lower. For now have aimed the forecast in
between these two scenarios...with gusts to 40 mph or so indicated
for areas from the Chautauqua county shoreline northeastward across
the Niagara Frontier to Monroe county later Monday night and Tuesday
morning...and winds then expected to gradually subside from west to
east Tuesday afternoon and evening.

With respect to temperatures...these will easily remain above normal
Monday night and Tuesday. Given only modest cold air advection...
readings in the mid to upper 40s (possibly even tickling 50 in a few
spots) out ahead of the cold front will only fall back to the upper
30s/lower 40s by sunrise on Tuesday...with highs on Tuesday then
generally running from the upper 30s across the higher terrain to
the lower to mid 40s elsewhere. Lows Tuesday night will then range
from the upper 20s to mid 30s.

Wednesday and Wednesday night our weather will turn more active
again as a digging northern stream trough advances east across the
Great Lakes and gradually phases with a southern stream wave
rippling eastward from the central Mississippi Valley. While the
various guidance packages continue to exhibit some differences in
the degree and timing of said phasing...in general this will lead to
an increasingly wavy cold front gradually pushing east across our
region...with this most likely to occur during the afternoon and
early evening hours of Wednesday. This should bring another period
of fairly widespread rainfall...which may begin mixed with some wet
snow due to marginal temperature profiles earlier on Wednesday.
Following the passage of the cold front...the precipitation will
then mix with/change over to snow as it winds down and colder air
arrives Wednesday evening...with a gradually veering flow/secondary
trough passage then supporting some upslope and lake enhanced/lake
effect snow showers east...then southeast of the lakes as we push
through the rest of Wednesday night. Otherwise...highs on Wednesday
look to be in the upper 30s to lower 40s...with readings then
falling back into the 20s Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
After a brief period of ridging across the forecast area Thursday,
the pattern will feature a deep trough over the Great Lakes region
Friday through Sunday. This will bring back below normal
temperatures and frequent snow showers into the eastern Great Lakes
region.

Initially, lake effect snow showers will diminish and come to an end
Thursday. A clipper system will move near or across the Great Lakes
region Thursday night through Friday/Friday night. The track and
evolution of this system remains up for debate, with ensemble means
and members taking this system across or to the south of the Great
Lakes region. Consensus still brings a swath of light snow across
the region with lake enhancement east of the Lakes through Saturday.
The 850mb temperature ensemble mean falls to -16C by Saturday. With
850mb RH mean values near 75%, which gives increasing confidence
that lake effect snow showers will be possible through Saturday
night. Snow accumulations are likely, however at this time it does
not show the signs of a prolonged event.

Temperatures begin slightly below normal Thursday through Friday
before falling to well below normal Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
For the 06Z TAFS, precipitation drastically tapers off from east to
west across the forecast area, generally in the form of rain at
lower elevations, and a mix of rain and snow at higher elevations
(KJHW). As an earlier shortwave trough, along with lift along a
departing LLJ continues to fade to the south and east, expect
precipitation to end over the course of the next 6 hours. However
plenty of low level moisture will remain, with MVFR and IFR
(Southern Tier) lingering through 10-12Z.

Today, a strengthening southeast, downslope flow, coupled with the
thinning of the depth of low level moisture as a narrow ridge of
high pressure aloft passes overhead will allow for a return to lower
end VFR flight conditions for the lower terrain...while IFR/MVFR may
just linger through the day. Southeast gusts through the afternoon
will be in the lower 20 knot range. Late in the TAF cycle, an upper
level low pressure will bring the next system of note into the
western Great Lakes today...with the leading edge of rain reaching
the western TAF sites by mid-afternoon today, and MVFR ceiling
heights returning.

Outlook...

Tonight...Areas of MVFR/IFR with rain ending through the
night. LLWS likely.

Tuesday...Areas of MVFR, with precipitation, mainly rain, east
of the Lakes. Otherwise, MVFR/VFR.

Wednesday...IFR likely with rain through the day, tapering off
as snow Wednesday night.

Thursday and Friday...Restrictions to IFR with scattered
(Thursday) to numerous (Friday) snow showers, especially east
of the lakes.

&&

.MARINE...
A warm front will move across the lower Great Lakes today, allowing
winds to veer more southerly and freshen to 15-20 knots with the
highest waves directed into Canadian waters. A cold front will sweep
across the lower Great Lakes tonight into Tuesday, with winds
veering to west-southwest and increasing to 20 to 25 knots. Small
craft headlines will be needed during this time frame, before
subsiding by Wednesday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...SW/TMA
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...HSK
AVIATION...SW/Thomas
MARINE...EAJ/TMA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
423 AM EST Sun Dec 15 2024

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-160930-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-
Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
423 AM EST Sun Dec 15 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western and north central New
York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-160930-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
423 AM EST Sun Dec 15 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of Lake
Erie, Lake Ontario, and the Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf