Severe Thunderstorm Warning 82, NWS Buffalo, NY

194 
WWUS51 KBUF 241642
SVSBUF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1242 PM EDT Wed Jul 24 2024

NYC045-049-241715-
/O.CON.KBUF.SV.W.0082.000000T0000Z-240724T1715Z/
Jefferson NY-Lewis NY-
1242 PM EDT Wed Jul 24 2024

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 115 PM EDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL JEFFERSON AND NORTH CENTRAL LEWIS COUNTIES...

At 1241 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 9 miles northeast
of Carthage, or 14 miles east of Fort Drum, moving northeast at 20
mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Harrisville, Lake Bonaparte, Natural Bridge, and Diana Center.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4397 7546 4403 7564 4426 7555 4413 7526
TIME...MOT...LOC 1641Z 214DEG 18KT 4408 7548 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

PP

443 
WWUS51 KBUF 241652
SVSBUF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1252 PM EDT Wed Jul 24 2024

NYC045-049-241715-
/O.CON.KBUF.SV.W.0082.000000T0000Z-240724T1715Z/
Jefferson NY-Lewis NY-
1252 PM EDT Wed Jul 24 2024

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 115 PM EDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL JEFFERSON AND NORTH CENTRAL LEWIS COUNTIES...

At 1252 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 11 miles south of
Fowler, or 15 miles south of Gouverneur, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Harrisville, Lake Bonaparte, Natural Bridge, and Diana Center.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4401 7541 4406 7556 4424 7550 4413 7526
TIME...MOT...LOC 1652Z 224DEG 16KT 4411 7541 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

PP

343 
WWUS51 KBUF 241715
SVSBUF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
115 PM EDT Wed Jul 24 2024

NYC045-049-241725-
/O.EXP.KBUF.SV.W.0082.000000T0000Z-240724T1715Z/
Lewis NY-
115 PM EDT Wed Jul 24 2024

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN LEWIS COUNTY HAS
EXPIRED...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been allowed to expire.  However, gusty
winds and heavy rain are still possible with this thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 4401 7541 4406 7556 4424 7550 4413 7526
TIME...MOT...LOC 1715Z 209DEG 22KT 4422 7533 

$$

PP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1040 AM EDT Wed Jul 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A humid airmass will linger across our region through tonight,
supporting several rounds of showers and thunderstorms with uneven
coverage. A cold front will cross the eastern Great Lakes late
tonight and early Thursday, bringing a return to drier and less
humid weather to end the week. Dry weather will last through the
weekend into early next week, but heat and humidity will build.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Subtle shortwave crossing the region early this morning continuing
to generate isolated showers and thunderstorms east of Lake Ontario,
but much of these are now weakening and exiting the area. A few more
showers may develop east of Lake Ontario through early afternoon.
A line of thunderstorms is developing just upstream from near
Hamilton to west of Long Point. The movement is northeast on these
storms, and they will likely have a difficult time initially moving
into the developing stable lake shadow northeast of Lake Erie.

A mid level trough will gradually work into the region from the
central Great Lakes today with the surface reflection/low moving
from lower Michigan this morning into southwest Quebec by early
this evening. Associated cold front remaining upstream through
today, although a pre-frontal trough will start to enter western
New York later this afternoon. Increasing instability will
likely be supportive of increasing showers and thunderstorms
this afternoon as the pre-frontal trough works into the region,
enhanced by some lake breeze interaction. Expect the best
chance of showers and thunderstorms to be found along and inland
of the lake shadowing from the Southern Tier through the
Genesee Valley and Finger Lakes to the southern Tug Hill. A
southwest flow off Lakes Erie and Ontario will lower rain
chances across the Niagara Frontier and Jefferson County most of
the day.

A few severe storms are possible as moderate instability develops in
the warm/moist sector boundary layer amidst shear profiles with
around 30 knots effective shear magnitudes. Locally damaging
wind gusts appears to be the main threat. In addition to the
risk for severe weather, a heavy rainfall risk is also a concern
with high atmospheric moisture content and the threat for
training cells will bring about the potential for localized
heavy rainfall and flash flooding.

The shower and thunderstorm potential will end gradually from
northwest to southeast late tonight as the cold front starts to
move into the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Cold front will quickly exit our region to the east Thursday.
Showers will linger, especially east of Lake Ontario where 850 hPa
temperatures falling into the upper single digits Celsius will
generate lake enhanced activity, coupled also with the passage of
the upper level trough that will linger scattered showers through
the day. Variable cloudiness Thursday will feature clouds ending
Thursday evening east of Lake Ontario with the exit of the trough,
and its associated moisture aloft.

High pressure will advance towards the eastern Great Lakes the
balance of this period, providing for plenty of sunshine, fair
weather and less humidity. Cool both Thursday night and Friday night
with traditionally colder spots of the Southern Tier and Tug Hill
region possible dipping into the upper 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Over the weekend the axis of surface high pressure will gradually
drift from the Lower Great Lakes to the Atlantic coastline...while
upper-level ridging builds in aloft. This will lead to fair dry and
warm weather for the weekend...with highs in the upper 70s to mid
80s Saturday nudging up a category on Sunday as heights/subsidence
increase aloft and a modest southwesterly flow of warmer air begins
to set up behind the departing surface ridge. Meanwhile humidity
levels will remain comfortable through Saturday as surface dewpoints
largely remain in the 50s...before beginning to creep up a little on
Sunday.

As we move into next week...conditions will turn progressively more
uncomfortable as an increasing/deepening southwesterly flow sets up
across our region in advance of a slowly approaching mid/upper level
trough. This will allow high temperatures to reach into the mid 80s
to lower 90s both Monday and Tuesday...while nightly lows climb to
the mid 60s to lower 70s by the end of the period. At the same time
humidity levels will also continue an upward arc...with surface
dewpoints rising to the upper 60s/lower 70s in many places by
Tuesday. The building heat and humidity will also allow for the
possibility of some widely scattered diurnally-driven convection
across far western New York Monday...before better and more general
chances for showers and storms arrive on Tuesday with the approach
of the upper trough axis.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions are expected through late morning or
midday with dry weather prevailing in most areas, with the exception
of a few scattered showers east of Lake Ontario mainly east of KART.

Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage this afternoon
as a mid-level trough approaches, and with daytime heating. The
focus for showers and thunderstorms will be along and inland of
the lake breeze boundaries. Stable lake shadows will hold down
rain chances over and northeast of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario,
including KBUF and KART. Pinpointing exact timing remains
difficult with these generally unorganized storms.

Outlook...

Tonight...Showers and thunderstorms likely with areas of MVFR
CIGS.
Thursday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms
mainly east of Lake Ontario.
Thursday night through Sunday...Mainly VFR. Valley fog possible
mainly across the Southern Tier with local IFR each overnight
through early morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds are expected to remain relatively light through much of the
week. There is a chance of a few thunderstorms at times through
Thursday, although the better chances will be inland from the Lake
Erie and Lake Ontario. The best chance for thunderstorms impacting
the lakes will be late this afternoon and tonight ahead of a cold
front that will sweep through late tonight and early Thursday. Winds
will veer to west and northwest behind the front, possibly reaching
low end Small Craft Advisory criteria by Thursday afternoon and
evening.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock/TMA
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock/TMA
SHORT TERM...Thomas
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...Hitchcock/TMA
MARINE...Hitchcock/TMA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
452 AM EDT Wed Jul 24 2024

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-250900-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-
Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
452 AM EDT Wed Jul 24 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western and north central New
York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening. The greatest risk for severe weather will be inland from
Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Damaging wind gusts are the main severe
weather threat.

There is also a marginal risk for excessive rainfall this afternoon
through tonight. Slow moving and repeating thunderstorms will bring
the potential for localized flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-250900-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
452 AM EDT Wed Jul 24 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of Lake
Erie, Lake Ontario, and the Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
726 AM EDT Wed Jul 24 2024

NYZ007-241200-
Jefferson NY-
726 AM EDT Wed Jul 24 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL JEFFERSON COUNTY
THROUGH 800 AM EDT...

At 725 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Southwick Beach State Park, or 8 miles northeast of Sandy Island
Beach State Park, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail along with
         brief torrential downpours.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Adams, Southwick Beach State Park, Adams Center, Smithville, Rodman,
Lorraine, Mannsville, Ellisburg, Worth, and Belleville.

This includes Interstate 81 between exits 39 and 44.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4372 7581 4370 7599 4371 7600 4371 7602
      4370 7603 4368 7619 4381 7622 4397 7597
TIME...MOT...LOC 1125Z 235DEG 16KT 4373 7610

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Hitchcock

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
828 AM EDT Wed Jul 24 2024

NYZ007-008-241300-
Jefferson NY-Lewis NY-
828 AM EDT Wed Jul 24 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL JEFFERSON AND WEST
CENTRAL LEWIS COUNTIES THROUGH 900 AM EDT...

At 827 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Adams Center, or near Watertown, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail along with
         brief, torrential downpours.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Watertown, Fort Drum, Adams Center, Black River, Rodman, Copenhagen,
Calcium, East Rodman, and Rutland Center.

This includes Interstate 81 near exit 44.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4383 7593 4391 7602 4404 7584 4400 7573
      4388 7566
TIME...MOT...LOC 1227Z 232DEG 13KT 4389 7591

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Hitchcock

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1212 PM EDT Wed Jul 24 2024

NYZ007-008-241700-
Jefferson NY-Lewis NY-
1212 PM EDT Wed Jul 24 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL JEFFERSON AND NORTH
CENTRAL LEWIS COUNTIES THROUGH 100 PM EDT...

At 1212 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Carthage, or 11 miles east of Fort Drum, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Harrisville, Lake Bonaparte, Natural Bridge, and Diana Center.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4424 7549 4422 7547 4420 7540 4415 7528
      4398 7546 4405 7566 4427 7556
TIME...MOT...LOC 1612Z 212DEG 19KT 4406 7554

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

PP