High Wind Warning 4, NWS Buffalo, NY

657 
WWUS71 KBUF 291659
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1159 AM EST Sun Dec 29 2024

NYZ019-300200-
/O.CON.KBUF.HW.W.0004.241229T2100Z-241230T2100Z/
Chautauqua-
Including the cities of Jamestown
1159 AM EST Sun Dec 29 2024

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 
PM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...South to southwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 
  mph expected. The strongest winds will be near the Lake Erie 
  shoreline and across higher terrain.

* WHERE...Chautauqua County.

* WHEN...From 4 PM this afternoon to 4 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Scattered power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult, 
  especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Avoid being outside in forested areas and around trees. If possible, 
remain in the lower levels of your home during the windstorm, and 
avoid windows. Use caution if you must drive.

&&

$$

NYZ085-300200-
/O.CON.KBUF.HW.W.0004.241229T2100Z-241230T2100Z/
Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Orchard Park and Springville
1159 AM EST Sun Dec 29 2024

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 
PM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...South to southwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 
  mph expected. The strongest winds will be near the Lake Erie 
  shoreline and across higher terrain.

* WHERE...Southern Erie County.

* WHEN...From 4 PM this afternoon to 4 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Scattered power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult, 
  especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Avoid being outside in forested areas and around trees. If possible, 
remain in the lower levels of your home during the windstorm, and 
avoid windows. Use caution if you must drive.

&&

$$

NYZ001-002-010-011-300200-
/O.CON.KBUF.HW.W.0004.241230T0300Z-241230T2100Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Buffalo, and
Batavia
1159 AM EST Sun Dec 29 2024

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 
PM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Niagara, Orleans, Northern Erie, and Genesee Counties.

* WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Scattered power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult, 
  especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Avoid being outside in forested areas and around trees. If possible, 
remain in the lower levels of your home during the windstorm, and 
avoid windows. Use caution if you must drive.

&&

$$

NYZ007-300200-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0016.241229T2100Z-241231T0000Z/
Jefferson-
Including the cities of Watertown
1159 AM EST Sun Dec 29 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM 
EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...South to southwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 
  mph expected.

* WHERE...Jefferson County.

* WHEN...From 4 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high 
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

NYZ012-020-300200-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0016.241229T2100Z-241230T2100Z/
Wyoming-Cattaraugus-
Including the cities of Warsaw and Olean
1159 AM EST Sun Dec 29 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM 
EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Wyoming and Cattaraugus Counties.

* WHEN...From 4 PM this afternoon to 4 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high 
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

NYZ003-300200-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0016.241230T1200Z-241230T2100Z/
Monroe-
Including the cities of Rochester
1159 AM EST Sun Dec 29 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Monroe County.

* WHEN...From 7 AM to 4 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high 
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

RSH

494 
WWUS71 KBUF 300122
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
822 PM EST Sun Dec 29 2024

NYZ019-085-301000-
/O.CON.KBUF.HW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-241230T2100Z/
Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Jamestown, Orchard Park, and Springville
822 PM EST Sun Dec 29 2024

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph.

* WHERE...Chautauqua and Southern Erie Counties.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM EST Monday. The strongest winds are expected 
  late tonight through Monday morning.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Scattered power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult, 
  especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Avoid being outside in forested areas and around trees. If possible, 
remain in the lower levels of your home during the windstorm, and 
avoid windows. Use caution if you must drive.

&&

$$

NYZ001-002-010-011-301000-
/O.CON.KBUF.HW.W.0004.241230T0300Z-241230T2100Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Buffalo, and
Batavia
822 PM EST Sun Dec 29 2024

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Niagara, Orleans, Northern Erie, and Genesee Counties.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM EST Monday. The strongest winds are expected 
  late tonight through Monday morning.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Scattered power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult, 
  especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Avoid being outside in forested areas and around trees. If possible, 
remain in the lower levels of your home during the windstorm, and 
avoid windows. Use caution if you must drive.

&&

$$

NYZ007-301000-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-241231T0000Z/
Jefferson-
Including the cities of Watertown
822 PM EST Sun Dec 29 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph tonight, 
  then southwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph again 
  Monday afternoon and early evening.

* WHERE...Jefferson County.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high 
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

NYZ012-020-301000-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-241230T2100Z/
Wyoming-Cattaraugus-
Including the cities of Warsaw and Olean
822 PM EST Sun Dec 29 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Wyoming and Cattaraugus Counties.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high 
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

NYZ003-301000-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0016.241230T1200Z-241230T2100Z/
Monroe-
Including the cities of Rochester
822 PM EST Sun Dec 29 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Monroe County.

* WHEN...From 7 AM to 4 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high 
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

Hitchcock

879 
WWUS71 KBUF 300752
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
252 AM EST Mon Dec 30 2024

NYZ001-002-010-011-301700-
/O.CON.KBUF.HW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-241230T2100Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Buffalo, and
Batavia
252 AM EST Mon Dec 30 2024

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS 
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph 
  expected. The strongest winds will be this morning.

* WHERE...Niagara, Orleans, Northern Erie, and Genesee Counties.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Scattered power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult, 
  especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Avoid being outside in forested areas and around trees. If possible, 
remain in the lower levels of your home during the windstorm, and 
avoid windows. Use caution if you must drive.

&&

$$

NYZ019-085-301700-
/O.CON.KBUF.HW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-241230T2100Z/
Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Jamestown, Orchard Park, and Springville
252 AM EST Mon Dec 30 2024

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS 
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph. The 
  strongest winds will be this morning.

* WHERE...Chautauqua and Southern Erie Counties.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Scattered power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult, 
  especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Avoid being outside in forested areas and around trees. If possible, 
remain in the lower levels of your home during the windstorm, and 
avoid windows. Use caution if you must drive.

&&

$$

NYZ007-301700-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-241231T0000Z/
Jefferson-
Including the cities of Watertown
252 AM EST Mon Dec 30 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. The 
  strongest winds will be this afternoon and early evening.

* WHERE...Jefferson County.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high 
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

NYZ012-020-301700-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-241230T2100Z/
Wyoming-Cattaraugus-
Including the cities of Warsaw and Olean
252 AM EST Mon Dec 30 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Wyoming and Cattaraugus Counties.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high 
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

NYZ003-301700-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0016.241230T1200Z-241230T2100Z/
Monroe-
Including the cities of Rochester
252 AM EST Mon Dec 30 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM 
EST THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Monroe County.

* WHEN...From 7 AM this morning to 4 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high 
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

Apffel

710 
WWUS71 KBUF 301542
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1042 AM EST Mon Dec 30 2024

NYZ001-002-010-011-019-085-301645-
/O.CAN.KBUF.HW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-241230T2100Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Buffalo, Batavia,
Jamestown, Orchard Park, and Springville
1042 AM EST Mon Dec 30 2024

...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...

While winds for the remainder of the midday and afternoon could gust 
to 35 to 40 mph, the threat of widespread damaging winds has ended.

$$

NYZ012-020-301645-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WI.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-241230T2100Z/
Wyoming-Cattaraugus-
Including the cities of Warsaw and Olean
1042 AM EST Mon Dec 30 2024

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

While winds could still gust to 35 mph or so through the afternoon, 
the threat for damaging wind gusts has ended.

$$

NYZ003-302100-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-241230T2100Z/
Monroe-
Including the cities of Rochester
1042 AM EST Mon Dec 30 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* WHERE...Monroe County.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. 
  Secure your holiday decorations.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high 
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

NYZ007-310000-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-241231T0000Z/
Jefferson-
Including the cities of Watertown
1042 AM EST Mon Dec 30 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Jefferson County.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. 
  Secure your holiday decorations.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high 
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

RSH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1250 AM EST Sun Dec 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A deepening storm system will track from the Lower Mississippi
valley across the Ohio Valley during the overnight...then will pass
just to the west of the forecast area late Sunday and Sunday night.
This scenario will result in a soaking rain for the region with very
strong winds to follow. Winds over the far western counties could
reach 50 to 60 mph at times late Sunday night and Monday. Another
system will then bring us another round of rain Tuesday and New
Years eve. A pattern change on New Years Day will then guarantee a
prolonged stretch of cold wintry weather for the first couple weeks
of the new year.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Much of the Lower Lakes will experience dry weather tonight. The
only issue will be areas of dense fog which will clip some of
the higher terrain across the Western Southern Tier through
daybreak. It will not be until after 09Z that a deepening
surface low over the lower mid-Mississippi Valley will bring
increasing chances for rain. The leading edge of the
precipitation shield will arrive just ahead of a potent LLJ (+60
knots @ 850 mb) lifting out of the Ohio Valley. Deep moisture
streaming north and large scale lift within the right entrance
region of a 130 knot jet will bring a swath of light to moderate
precipitation across the region as we head into Sunday. There
will be no concerns regarding p-type...all locales will be well
above freezing at this point. Otherwise...another relatively
mild night with lows in the 40s and mid-upper 30s east of Lake
Ontario.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As far as headlines go, decided to issue a High Wind Watch for
Sunday night into Monday across the Niagara Frontier. While
earlier guidance has been suggesting an advisory level event,
latest trends in model certainty in forecast track and low
strength have increased confidence for a narrow window of
warning criteria winds Monday morning. The latest NBM shows a
70% chance of gusts exceeding 40 kt (and 35% chance of warning
levels), which is nearly double that from just 24 hours ago. The
dry slot of the maturing cyclone moves over western NY
overnight Sunday into Monday with a 55+ kt LLJ at 925- 850mb
moving up Lake Erie from the southwest along with the arrival of
colder air on the backside of this system. Latest trends would
suggest the 09z-15z timeframe on Monday as the most likely
period to see wind gusts peaking around 60 mph, with advisory
level winds for the remainder of the period. However, the watch
for Chautauqua Co starts Sunday afternoon to account for the
potential of strong wind gusts off the ridge along the I-90
Thruway. There will be a period of south to southwesterly
downslope flow in the afternoon before the stronger subsidence
arrives later in the evening for much of the Niagara Frontier.
In addition to the strong southwesterly low- level winds over
the Lake Erie surface, lake shore flooding will be a concern
near Dunkirk and Buffalo. See discussion below for further
details.

One area to watch will be along the Tug Hill here strong
southerly flow could lead to downslope enhancement along portions
of Jefferson Co Monday morning, however with the track of the
low lifting farther north into Ontario, the area of strongest
subsidence might not reach far enough east. Speaking of the Tug
Hill though, with colder air overspreading the region and Lake
Ontario, lake enhancement could lead to minor accumulations of
snowfall at the higher elevations Monday afternoon and evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Winter returns starting New Years Day, and then lasts for the
foreseeable future. The anomalous warmth that is currently dominating
most of the North American continent will continue for a few more
days before the pattern begins to amplify, allowing cold to
regenerate across Canada. The amplifying pattern will bring a deep
longwave trough into eastern Canada and the northeast US by the end
of next week through next weekend, setting the stage for a return to
active winter weather, including lake effect snow.

Tuesday, the area will be between systems through the first half of
the day, with mainly dry weather prevailing. A strong southern
stream shortwave will then move out of the Ohio Valley and into the
Northeast US late Tuesday through Tuesday night. The initial surface
low over the Ohio Valley Tuesday afternoon will weaken and give way
to secondary coastal cyclogenesis near the southern New England
coast, with the subsequent low moving into Maine by late Wednesday.

Rain will overspread the area from southwest to northeast later
Tuesday and continue Tuesday night. Precipitation should stay rain
in most areas through late Tuesday night. Colder air will then pour
back into the eastern Great Lakes Wednesday as the coastal low takes
over and the trough deepens, allowing for a change from rain to wet
snow. There continues to be decent model spread on how early the
colder air arrives, but some of the faster/colder guidance such as
the ECMWF suggests some accumulations possible, especially across
higher terrain.

Wednesday night through Friday the coastal low will move north
across New Brunswick to eastern Quebec and continue to deepen.
Broad, cold cyclonic flow on the western flank of the system will
support lake enhanced wrap around snow on northwest flow Wednesday
night through a portion of Thursday. Latest guidance suggests flow
will back to the WNW or close to due west later Thursday through
Friday, setting the stage for more significant lake effect snow east
of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario.

There is still quite a bit of uncertainty with the finer scale
details of band placement and intensity at this time range. In
general, the heavier snow off Lake Erie should focus well south of
the Buffalo Metro area, and the Tug Hill region or Oswego County off
Lake Ontario.

Latest model guidance suggests flow becomes more northwest again by
Saturday, with ongoing lake effect snow spreading to areas southeast
of the lakes and likely weakening to some extent as fetches shorten.

Looking farther ahead, it appears winter is here to stay through at
least mid January with a cold and potentially very active period in
the Great Lakes and Northeast US.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Mainly VFR flight conditions to start the 06Z TAF cycle,
although there is some dense fog entering parts of the Western
Southern Tier which may temporarily impact KJHW overnight.
Otherwise, patchy MVFR cigs, but mainly VFR through 12Z.

After this a swath of steady rain will spread from south to
north across the region on Sunday. This will lower cigs/vsby to
at least MVFR with IFR possible at times. The steady rain will
giveway to showers during the afternoon hours, with lingering
IFR/MVFR cigs. A 40-50kt low level jet will move through the
region at that time, resulting in LLWS.

The LLJ wil move out of the area Sunday evening, with cigs also
improving some as most of the showers move out of the a area.
Winds will increase overnight, especially across far Western NY
late in the night.

Outlook...
Monday...Very windy...especially west of the Genesee valley.
Otherwise VFR to MVFR conditions in scattered rain showers.

Tuesday and Wednesday...Rain returns Tuesday afternoon, with a
rain and snow mix Tuesday night and Wednesday. Conditions
deteriorating to IFR.

Thursday...IFR in bands of lake effect snow east of the Lakes,
otherwise MVFR/VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A deepening surface low will approach the Lower Great Lakes Sunday
with rain showers starting early in the morning and persisting
through much of the day. Stronger winds develop Sunday night
into Monday across Lake Erie and Lake Ontario where a Gale Watch
is in effect. May need to monitor latest conditions leading up
to the Gales to see if Small Craft Advisories will be necessary
Sunday afternoon.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Warm weather through Sunday will melt a lot of the snow pack
currently in place. About 1 to 2 inches of Snow Water Equivalent
(SWE) is in place east of Lake Erie, and 2 to 4 inches on the
Tug Hill. This snow melt is likely to cause ice on the Buffalo
creeks to break up overnight. Because ice on the creeks is not
that thick, any jams that develop are expected to break up
rather quickly. However we could see brief spikes on our Buffalo
creek gauges during this time, which will only be showing ice
movement and not indicative of actual flows.

After this, between a half inch and inch of rain is expected
Sunday into Monday with around an inch in the Black River basin.
Ensembles suggest a low potential for flooding, with most rivers
and creeks remaining below action stage. The exception is the
Black River which is likely to rise to action stage, but
unlikely to reach flood stage.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Winds will increase abruptly as low pressure passes by to the west
Sunday night. Southwest to west winds will potentially reach gale
force on Lake Erie, which will result in rises in water levels. At
this time rises to about 8 feet seems possible, which may cause
splashover issues along the immediate lakeshore. With the latest
model trends, decided to issue a Lakeshore Flood Watch along the
Lake Erie shoreline in Erie and Chautauqua Co due to the
increasing confidence of strong winds along the lake surface
towards the lake shore. This includes portions of the Buffalo
Harbor and Canalside.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A warm airmass will settle over the Lower Great Lakes region
this weekend. Record high maximums and record warm minimums will
be possible for our three climate sites. Below are listed the
record warm temperatures for our three climate sites for Sunday,
December 29th.

Site.........Record Maximum (F)...Record Warm Minimum (F)

Buffalo.........61 (1990)...............44 (1884)

Rochester.......63 (1984)...............44 (2003)

Watertown.......55 (1990)...............42 (2003)

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...High Wind Watch from this evening through Monday afternoon for
     NYZ001-002-010-011-085.
     Lakeshore Flood Watch from this evening through Monday
     afternoon for NYZ010-019-085.
     High Wind Watch from this afternoon through Monday afternoon
     for NYZ019.
MARINE...Gale Watch from late tonight through Monday afternoon for
         LEZ040-041.
         Gale Watch from late tonight through Monday evening
         for LOZ042-062.
         Gale Watch from Monday morning through late Monday night
         for LOZ043>045-063>065.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...AR/Apffel/Brothers/RSH
SHORT TERM...Brothers
LONG TERM...Hitchcock
AVIATION...Apffel/RSH
MARINE...AR/Brothers
HYDROLOGY...Apffel
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...Apffel/Brothers
CLIMATE...Thomas

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
503 AM EST Sat Dec 28 2024

NYZ003>008-012>014-020-021-291100-
Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-Wyoming-
Livingston-Ontario-Cattaraugus-Allegany-
503 AM EST Sat Dec 28 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

There is the potential for heavy lake effect snow Wednesday night
through Friday. Uncertainty remains on the exact placement of the
heaviest snowfall, but in general the heaviest snows are expected
east of the lakes.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ001-002-010-011-019-085-291100-
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
503 AM EST Sat Dec 28 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Gusty winds are expected Sunday afternoon through Monday. Winds will
be more localized, generally downslope of the Chautauqua Ridge Sunday
afternoon and evening. Then more widespread gusty winds will develop
after low pressure passes by to the west. Peak gusts are expected to
be around 50 mph.

There is the potential for heavy lake effect snow Wednesday night
through Friday. Uncertainty remains on the exact placement of the
heaviest snowfall, but in general the heaviest snows are expected
east of the lakes.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-291100-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
503 AM EST Sat Dec 28 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie, Lake
Ontario and Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ040-041-291100-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
503 AM EST Sat Dec 28 2024

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

Apffel

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1244 AM EST Sun Dec 29 2024

NYZ020-021-290900-
Cattaraugus-Allegany-
Including the cities of Olean and Wellsville
1244 AM EST Sun Dec 29 2024

...AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY BELOW A HALF MILE
OVERNIGHT...

Areas of dense fog will reduce visibility below a half mile at
times through daybreak across portions of the Western Southern
Tier. Fog will be most dense across higher terrain. Those
traveling along the Southern Tier expressway and through Allegany
and Cattaraugus counties should be prepared for areas of very poor
visibility overnight.

Apffel