Severe Thunderstorm Warning 68, NWS Burlington, VT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
345 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Unsettled weather will continue through Monday as a series of
disturbances shift southeast through Vermont and northern New
York. A few storms could be strong and capable of producing
gusty winds and heavy rain. The cold front will sag south late
Monday bringing cooler and drier air across the region. The
frontal boundary will stall to our south, and a few showers may
cross the boundary in parts of the Adirondacks and southern
Vermont periodically.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 PM EDT Sunday...Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing
across the region this afternoon, some with strong gusty winds
and most of them with heavy rain as the storm motion is pretty
slow. Convection will dissipate following sunset this evening,
and it should be a somewhat cooler night with mainly 60s across
the region. Patchy fog is likely to develop again, especially at
locations that had heavy rain today and in the typically fog
prone spots. Monday will be another active day as a cold front
will drop southward across our area. Showers and storms will
start early in the day Monday in Northern New York, then spread
southeastward as the day wears on. High temperatures across
northern New York will only reach the mid 70s as the cold front
drops through that area early in the day. Areas across central
and southern Vermont will still reach the mid to upper 80s as
they'll be last to have the cold frontal passage. Rutland,
Windsor, Orange and southern Addison counties in Vermont will be
most susceptible to severe thunderstorms on Monday. SPC has
issued a slight risk for this area. This area will have the cold
front crossing at a better time of day, along with better upper
level support. The main threat with these storms will be gusty
winds with good shear in place. There will also continue to be a
risk for heavy rain in showers and thunderstorms across the
area. Showers will die down following sunset Monday evening, and
patchy fog will be expected once again where there was heavy
rain and also in the typically fog prone spots. Minimum
temperatures will drop into the mid 50s to lower 60s across the
area with a cooler drier air mass in place behind departing cold
front. This will come as welcome relief after many warm humid
nights over the past week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 323 PM EDT Sunday...Sharply cooler and drier conditions
remain in the forecast for Tuesday. Morning temperatures in the
50s and 60s will rise into the low to mid 70s as dew points
remain in the comfortable range, probably in the low to mid 50s
on average. That being said, we still carry rain chances for the
afternoon and evening hours, mainly in southern portions of
Vermont. A wave of low pressure passing along a frontal zone to
our south will almost certainly spread clouds into our region,
with greater chances for deeper clouds and measurable rain as
you go southward. There is a pretty large range in outcomes for
sky cover with spread across our region, especially in the
western Adirondacks and northern Champlain Valley Tuesday
afternoon when skies may be sunny or partly to mostly cloudy,
and the thickness of clouds through the nighttime. What is more
certain is rainfall amounts, even if it does rain later Tuesday
into Tuesday night, will be on the light side with no
instability and weak frontal lift.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 340 PM EDT Sunday...Wednesday looks like the pick of the
week with best chance of sunny skies and dry weather. Highs will
be in the mid and upper 70s with dew points remaining most
likely in the low and mid 50s. Conditions will be similarly
pleasant on Thursday, however humidity will begin to rise along
with cloud cover.

The Friday and Saturday timeframe is currently the most
uncertain part of the forecast. There will likely be tropical
moisture moving northward associated with the remnants of Debby,
which will interact with a frontal boundary. Where these
features come together, very heavy and widespread rain will
occur. In terms of potential for rainfall in Vermont and
northern New York, the wetter scenarios would see the greatest
rain amounts in the Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon.
Total rainfall at the 90th percentile adds up to 2 to 3 inches
on average, excluding the St. Lawrence Valley where even the
90th percentile rainfall is only 1-1.5 inches. The same 24 hours
shows only about a 50% chance of measurable rainfall, trending
a bit higher as one goes southeastward, suggesting the unusually
large range in possibilities. One could translate these numbers
to say: it may not rain, but if it does, significant rainfall
is possible. That idea is consistent with the long range
ensemble river forecasts for a few points, including on the
Ausable, Lamoille, and Winooski Rivers, which show a large and
sharp rise on Saturday, cresting above flood stage in about 10%
of this morning's model simulations in the GEFS. Rain may linger
into Sunday, but following this potential tropical weather, all
indications at this time show winds will turn
westerly/northwesterly with drier conditions returning.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 18Z Monday...Generally southwest winds, and some
terrain-driven flow, around 4 to 7 knots continues. Showers and
storms have developed, and will continue through about 02z.
Have VCSH and TEMPO groups with TS at most sites. Beyond 02z,
winds should become light and variable again with patchy fog
possible across the climatological favored locations, especially
at terminals which have had heavy rain today After 10z Monday,
showers from a frontal boundary will approach KMSS and spread
eastward during the daytime hours.

Outlook...

Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Neiles
SHORT TERM...Kutikoff
LONG TERM...Kutikoff
AVIATION...Neiles

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Burlington VT
314 AM EDT Sun Aug 4 2024

NYZ026>031-087-VTZ001>008-016-017-050715-
Northern St. Lawrence-Northern Franklin-Eastern Clinton-
Southeastern St. Lawrence-Southern Franklin-Western Clinton-
Southwestern St. Lawrence-Grand Isle-Western Franklin-Orleans-Essex-
Western Chittenden-Lamoille-Caledonia-Washington-Eastern Franklin-
Eastern Chittenden-
314 AM EDT Sun Aug 4 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern New York, central
Vermont, northeast Vermont and northwest Vermont.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible today. A few could
be strong to locally severe and capable of producing gusty winds and
heavy rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

A cold front will shift southeast during the day Monday. A few
storms may be capable of producing gusty winds and heavy rain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NYZ034-035-VTZ009>011-018>021-050715-
Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Addison-Orange-Western Rutland-
Eastern Addison-Eastern Rutland-Western Windsor-Eastern Windsor-
314 AM EDT Sun Aug 4 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern New York, central
Vermont and southern Vermont.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible today. A few could
be strong to locally severe and capable of producing gusty winds and
heavy rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

A cold front will shift southeast during the day Monday. A Slight
Risk Outlook (Level 2 of 5) is in place across southern Vermont, with
isolated storms capable of gusty to damaging winds and very heavy
rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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