Wind Advisory 9, NWS Brownsville, TX

912 
WWUS74 KBRO 160053
NPWBRO

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
753 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

TXZ251-253>255-351-354-355-160200-
/O.EXP.KBRO.WI.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-240416T0100Z/
Inland Kenedy-Southern Hidalgo-Inland Willacy-Inland Cameron-
Coastal Kenedy-Coastal Willacy-Coastal Cameron-
Including the cities of Sarita, McAllen, Edinburg, Pharr, 
Mission, Weslaco, Raymondville, Brownsville, Harlingen, 
Port Mansfield, Port Isabel, and Laguna Vista
753 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

Winds have fallen below Wind Advisory criteria. Winds will
continue to be breezy through tonight with gusts between 25 and 30
mph.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
607 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 236 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley will remain on the
northern periphery of 500 mb high pressure centered over the Bay
of Campeche during the period. This will produce dry weather
across the region, with daytime highs and overnight lows running a
few degrees above normal for this time of year. In fact, highs on
Tuesday will be well above normal, as the approach of a weak cold
front produces a downsloping effect off of the high terrain of
neighboring Mexico.

Meanwhile, additionally at the surface, an enhanced pressure
gradient will exist courtesy of high pressure over the Gulf of
Mexico interacting with low pressure over Mexico. Breezy to windy
conditions will occur, with the strongest winds anticipated to be
today. However, model guidance suggests that wind strength today
will be just below established WIND ADVISORY criteria. Therefore,
a WIND ADVISORY will not be issued at this time.

Finally, wind and sea conditions will result in a HIGH RISK of
rip currents at the local beaches today and at least until around
sunset Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 236 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

A weak, low latitude short wave trough will move east across
Northern Mexico on Wednesday and, sitting just upstream Wednesday
night, may help trigger convection on the Sierra Madre Oriental
front range, with models showing some of that activity crossing
into the Upper RGV. The upper instability will linger into
Thursday as the trough ejects, with convection again showing up
over western sections of the CWA Thursday afternoon. The next good
opportunity for convection will be on Saturday. A cold front will
push south into the CWA and the mid level flow will again
advertise ripples of energy from the southwest. The result will be
showers and thunderstorms along the front increasing in coverage
Saturday night through Sunday, with chances lingering into Monday.
Above average temperatures will prevail much of the long term,
decreasing slightly to near normal Sunday with the increasing
clouds and rain chances associated with the cold front edging
through.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 605 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

MVFR to VFR conditions will continue to be the rule at the
aerodromes through the next 24 hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 236 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Today through Tuesday...An enhanced pressure gradient will exist
over the western Gulf of Mexico during the period. Breezy winds
and moderate to rough seas are forecast along the Lower Texas
Coast, and a combination of Small Craft Should Exercise Caution
and Small Craft Advisory will be needed to account for the more
adverse marine conditions.

Tuesday night through Friday night...Possible SCEC for the
offshore waters Tuesday night. Otherwise, high pressure across
the Gulf of Mexico will support moderate southeast winds and
moderate seas through the forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             84  74  89  73 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               87  71  92  71 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN                 90  74  96  75 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         94  73  97  73 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      78  73  80  73 /   0   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     84  72  87  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for TXZ451-454-455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this
     evening for GMZ130-132-135.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to noon CDT Tuesday
     for GMZ150-155-170-175.

&&