Winter Storm Warning 4, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

028 
WWUS41 KBOX 031102
WSWBOX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
702 AM EDT Wed Apr 3 2024

MAZ002-008-040015-
/O.CON.KBOX.WS.W.0004.240403T1800Z-240405T0600Z/
Western Franklin MA-Western Hampshire MA-
Including the cities of Charlemont and Chesterfield
702 AM EDT Wed Apr 3 2024

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 
  12 inches. Winds gusting as high as 55 mph.

* WHERE...Western Franklin and Western Hampshire Counties.

* WHEN...From 2 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. Gusty 
  winds could bring down tree branches.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.

&&

$$

MAZ004-026-040015-
/O.CON.KBOX.WS.W.0004.240404T0000Z-240405T1200Z/
Northern Worcester MA-Northern Middlesex MA-
Including the cities of Barre, Fitchburg, and Ayer
702 AM EDT Wed Apr 3 2024

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING
TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8 
  inches. Winds gusting as high as 55 mph.

* WHERE...Northern Worcester and Northern Middlesex Counties.

* WHEN...From 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. Gusty 
  winds could bring down tree branches.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.

&&

$$

MAZ003-040015-
/O.CON.KBOX.WW.Y.0010.240403T2100Z-240405T0900Z/
Eastern Franklin MA-
Including the cities of Greenfield and Orange
702 AM EDT Wed Apr 3 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 
  inches. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph.

* WHERE...Eastern Franklin County.

* WHEN...From 5 PM this afternoon to 5 AM EDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. Gusty 
  winds could bring down tree branches.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

&&

$$

MAZ009-040015-
/O.CON.KBOX.WW.Y.0010.240403T1800Z-240405T0600Z/
Western Hampden MA-
Including the city of Blandford
702 AM EDT Wed Apr 3 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations 
  of 2 to 4 inches. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph.

* WHERE...Western Hampden County.

* WHEN...From 2 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. Gusty 
  winds could bring down tree branches.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

&&

$$

572 
WWUS41 KBOX 031901
WSWBOX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
301 PM EDT Wed Apr 3 2024

MAZ002-008-040815-
/O.CON.KBOX.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-240405T0600Z/
Western Franklin MA-Western Hampshire MA-
Including the cities of Charlemont and Chesterfield
301 PM EDT Wed Apr 3 2024

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy wet snow and sleet. Snow and sleet accumulations of
  3 to 9 inches with the larger amounts in the highest terrain
  along the east slopes of the Berkshires. Winds gusting as high 
  as 55 mph.

* WHERE...Western Franklin and Western Hampshire Counties.

* WHEN...Until 2 AM EDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the evening commute as well as the
  Thursday morning commute. Gusty winds could bring down tree 
  branches.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

&&

$$

MAZ004-026-040815-
/O.CON.KBOX.WS.W.0004.240404T0000Z-240405T1200Z/
Northern Worcester MA-Northern Middlesex MA-
Including the cities of Barre, Fitchburg, and Ayer
301 PM EDT Wed Apr 3 2024

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING
TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow and sleet expected. Total snow and sleet
  accumulations of 2 to 8 inches with the higher of those totals
  confined to the highest terrain of the Worcester Hills near the
  Hampshire border. Winds gusting as high as 55 mph.

* WHERE...Northern Worcester and Northern Middlesex Counties.

* WHEN...From 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the evening commute as well as the
  Thursday morning commute. Gusty winds could bring down tree 
  branches.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

&&

$$

MAZ005-006-012-040815-
/O.EXA.KBOX.WW.Y.0010.240403T2100Z-240405T0900Z/
Central Middlesex MA-Western Essex MA-Southern Worcester MA-
Including the cities of Framingham, Lowell, Lawrence, Milford, 
and Worcester
301 PM EDT Wed Apr 3 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Sleet expected with a bit of snow possible Friday
  morning. Total sleet accumulations up to 1 inch and perhaps
  around 2 inches in the highest terrain and near the New
  Hampshire border. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph.

* WHERE...Central Middlesex, Western Essex and Southern 
  Worcester Counties.

* WHEN...Until 5 AM EDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the Thursday morning commute. Gusty 
  winds could bring down tree branches.

* PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

MAZ003-040815-
/O.CON.KBOX.WW.Y.0010.240403T2100Z-240405T0900Z/
Eastern Franklin MA-
Including the cities of Greenfield and Orange
301 PM EDT Wed Apr 3 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Wet Snow and sleet expected. Total snow and sleet
  accumulations of 1 to 3 inches. Winds gusting as high as 50 
  mph.

* WHERE...Eastern Franklin County.

* WHEN...Until 5 AM EDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the Thursday morning commute. Gusty 
  winds could bring down tree branches.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

MAZ009-040815-
/O.CON.KBOX.WW.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-240405T0600Z/
Western Hampden MA-
Including the city of Blandford
301 PM EDT Wed Apr 3 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Wet snow and sleet. Total snow and sleet accumulations of
  1 to 4 inches. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph.

* WHERE...Western Hampden County.

* WHEN...Until 2 AM EDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the Thursday morning commute. Gusty 
  winds could bring down tree branches.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

Frank/RM

101 
WWUS41 KBOX 040747
WSWBOX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
347 AM EDT Thu Apr 4 2024

MAZ002-008-042100-
/O.EXT.KBOX.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-240404T2100Z/
Western Franklin MA-Western Hampshire MA-
Including the cities of Charlemont and Chesterfield
347 AM EDT Thu Apr 4 2024

...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations of 4 to 10 
  inches. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph.

* WHERE...Western Franklin and Western Hampshire Counties.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM EDT this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. Gusty 
  winds could bring down tree branches.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

&&

$$

MAZ004-026-042100-
/O.EXT.KBOX.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-240405T0000Z/
Northern Worcester MA-Northern Middlesex MA-
Including the cities of Barre, Fitchburg, and Ayer
347 AM EDT Thu Apr 4 2024

...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation. Additional snow 
  accumulations of up to 6 inches and ice accumulations of a 
  light glaze. Winds gusting as high as 60 mph.

* WHERE...Northern Worcester and Northern Middlesex Counties.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. Strong 
  winds could cause extensive damage to trees and power lines.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

&&

$$

MAZ003-042100-
/O.EXT.KBOX.WW.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-240405T0000Z/
Eastern Franklin MA-
Including the cities of Greenfield and Orange
347 AM EDT Thu Apr 4 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches. 
  Winds gusting as high as 60 mph.

* WHERE...Eastern Franklin County.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. Strong 
  winds could cause tree damage.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

MAZ009-042100-
/O.EXT.KBOX.WW.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-240404T2100Z/
Western Hampden MA-
Including the city of Blandford
347 AM EDT Thu Apr 4 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches. 
  Winds gusting as high as 50 mph.

* WHERE...Western Hampden County.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM EDT this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. Gusty 
  winds could bring down tree branches.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

MAZ005-006-012-042100-
/O.EXT.KBOX.WW.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-240405T0600Z/
Central Middlesex MA-Western Essex MA-Southern Worcester MA-
Including the cities of Framingham, Lowell, Lawrence, Milford, 
and Worcester
347 AM EDT Thu Apr 4 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of up to two 
  inches. Winds gusting as high as 55 mph.

* WHERE...Central Middlesex, Western Essex and Southern 
  Worcester Counties.

* WHEN...Until 2 AM EDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. Strong 
  winds could cause tree damage.

* PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

735 
WWUS41 KBOX 041707
WSWBOX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
107 PM EDT Thu Apr 4 2024

MAZ004-026-041815-
/O.CAN.KBOX.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-240405T0000Z/
Northern Worcester MA-Northern Middlesex MA-
Including the cities of Barre, Fitchburg, and Ayer
107 PM EDT Thu Apr 4 2024

...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

Conditions are rapidly improving, and although light snow will
continue this afternoon, no additional significant accumulations
are expected. Some back roads may remain slush covered, so please
drive with caution.

$$

MAZ002-008-041815-
/O.CAN.KBOX.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-240404T2100Z/
Western Franklin MA-Western Hampshire MA-
Including the cities of Charlemont and Chesterfield
107 PM EDT Thu Apr 4 2024

...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

Conditions are rapidly improving and only light snow or flurries
are expected through mid afternoon. Some back roads may remain 
slush covered, so please drive with caution.

$$

MAZ005-006-012-041815-
/O.CAN.KBOX.WW.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-240405T0600Z/
Central Middlesex MA-Western Essex MA-Southern Worcester MA-
Including the cities of Framingham, Lowell, Lawrence, Milford, 
and Worcester
107 PM EDT Thu Apr 4 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Any additional snow will be light and mixed with rain. No
accumulations are expected.

$$

MAZ003-041815-
/O.CAN.KBOX.WW.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-240405T0000Z/
Eastern Franklin MA-
Including the cities of Greenfield and Orange
107 PM EDT Thu Apr 4 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Conditions are rapidly improving and only light snow or flurries
are expected through mid afternoon. Some back roads may remain 
slush covered, so please drive with caution.

$$

MAZ009-041815-
/O.CAN.KBOX.WW.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-240404T2100Z/
Western Hampden MA-
Including the city of Blandford
107 PM EDT Thu Apr 4 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Conditions are rapidly improving and only light snow or flurries
are expected through mid afternoon. Some back roads may remain 
slush covered, so please drive with caution.

$$
Nash

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1007 PM EDT Tue Apr 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers impact mainly the interior this evening with a drying
trend overnight. Another slug of rain arrives from west to east
on Wednesday with some sleet too especially across the high
terrain north of the Massachusetts Turnpike. A robust system
Wednesday night and Thursday will bring; locally heavy wet snow
over higher elevations, strong to damaging northeast wind
gusts, heavy rainfall which could lead to renewed river
flooding concerns, and coastal flooding. Unsettled conditions
may linger into next weekend as the storm will be slow to
depart.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
10 PM Update...

Radar is beginning to show the area of drying across western MA
and CT. Expecting the dry air advect east tonight ending the
rain for RI and eastern MA around midnight. The next round of
rain should hold off until near sunrise for western MA and CT.

Key Points...

* Showers mainly across the interior dissipate later tonight
* Rain & sleet gradually overspread the region Wed from west to east
* ENE winds ramp up especially along the coastal plain late

Details...

Tonight...

Strong closed upper level energy across the midwest this afternoon
will slowly drop southeast tonight. The main surface low pressure
system will lift northward in the vicinity of Lake Michigan. Some
lead shortwave energy will run into left over ridging and a low
level dry ENE push. Therefore...our thinking is that some showers
will impact the interior mainly this evening. Any wet snow will be
confined to the highest terrain along the east slopes of the
Berks...mainly near and above 1500 feet and will not amount to much
tonight. Meanwhile across eastern MA...probably nothing more than a
few sprinkles/light showers from a mid level cloud deck this
evening. Most of the showers across the interior should come to an
end overnight. This a result of temporary dry air advecting in from
the east northeast. Overnight low temps will generally be in the
middle to upper 30s.

Wednesday...

Low pressure over the midwest will begin to transfer energy towards
the mid-Atlantic coast and also intensify on Wed. The result will be
an intensifying easterly LLJ and a gradual increase in
ascent/forcing from west to east as the day wears along. In
response...we should see light precipitation overspread much of the
interior Wed morning into the early afternoon. Model cross sections
indicate some low level dry air hanging tough across eastern New
England. This will delay the arrival of the steady precipitation. So
probably nothing more than a few showers along the coastal plain
into early afternoon with the steadier precipitation arriving later
in the afternoon and especially during the evening.

The initial low pressure system over the Great Lakes will allow for
a substantial warm layer to invade around 750 mb. However...800 to
850 mb temps are quite a bit colder and will drop to between -4C and
-6C with some lingering low level dry air/evaporative cooling on ENE
low level flow. This will result in sleet across the high terrain of
the Worcester Hills and Berks. In addition...even areas of the lower
elevations north of the CT/RI border will see sleet and rain mixed
on Wed. However...surface temps will be above freezing so not
expecting travel issues on Wed in the lower elevations.
However...some slippery travel may develop in the higher terrain
especially by evening with sleet falling and temps near freezing.

High temps on Wed will mainly be in the lower to middle 40s...but
with temps falling into the 30s once the steady rain and sleet
arrives. Winds will also begin to ramp up  with 35 to 55 mph gusts
developing by evening along the coastal plain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Points...

* Locally heavy wet snow over the Berkshires and northern Worcester
  Hills could result in power outages and impact the Thu morning
  commute

* Strong to damaging wind gusts along the coast Wed night into Thu
  morning

* Heavy rain with renewed flooding concerns for RI and SE MA rivers

* Minor coastal flooding possible along the south and east coasts,
  with pockets of moderate flooding along the east coast of MA

The brunt of this anomalous early spring storm occurs Wed night into
Thu morning. Phasing of northern and southern stream energy leads to
a deep mid level low across the Gt Lakes. Strong shortwave rotating
around the main low center will develop a secondary mid level center
as it tracks across New Eng on Thu with impressive height falls
around 200M in 12 hours promoting rapid deepening of coastal low
pres as it tracks to the SNE coast Thu. PWAT anomalies are not
overly impressive, about 1-2SD above normal. But what this system
lacks in anomalous moisture will be made up by impressive synoptic
forcing for ascent from the shortwave and a highly anomalous
easterly low level jet which will serve to bring heavy precipitation
to SNE. Impacts from this storm will be heavy wet snow over the
higher elevations, damaging wind along the coast, minor to moderate
coastal flooding and heavy rain with renewed river flooding concerns
in RI and SE MA. Winter storm watches were expanded to Worcester
Hills. Will break down more below.

Ptype and heavy snow...

Warm nose aloft with the peak around 750 mb combined with deep low
level cold air will result in lots of sleet which will continue into
the evening across the higher elevations, with rain/sleet mix down
to the MA Pike region. It is possible there could be an inch or so
of sleet accum from Wed into Wed evening across higher elevations
where temps will be close to freezing. Also can't rule out a few
pockets of freezing rain, but given the depth of the low level cold
air, we think there will be more sleet than freezing rain.
Otherwise, just rain elsewhere. Then as the evening progresses,
height falls from approaching shortwave will begin to erode the warm
layer with any mixed precip flipping to snow north of the MA Pike
and west of I-495 around or after midnight. Inside of I-495 and
south of the Pike we are looking at mainly rain, which could mix
with sleet at times, but no impact with temps at least few degrees
above freezing.

Snow accum will vary greatly by elevation where temps close to
freezing will allow accumulating snow. Mid level low track will also
play an important role with best accum occurring to the north of the
track. This sets up the Berkshires and northern Worcester Hills for
the heaviest accum with potential for 4-6 inches accum, especially
near the VT and NH border where localized 8 inch amounts are
possible. The concern here is that heavy wet snow on trees and power
lines could result in some power outages. In the lower elevations of
northern MA, expecting a slushy coating to 2 inches as temps will
remain above freezing. We will have to watch interior NE MA
including the Merrimack valley late Wed night into Thu morning for a
period of moderate to heavy snow. This area will be at the nose of
the strong LLJ which will help to enhance precip rates. The surface
temps will be critical. We are currently thinking temps will not
drop below 34 degrees which would limit accum, but 1-2 degrees
cooler would result in 3 or 4 inches accum here during the Thu
morning commute. This will have to be monitored.

Strong to damaging wind...

Impressive 60-70 kt 925 mb jet which is 4-5SD above normal lifts
along the south and east coasts Wed night into Thu morning.
Soundings show a shallow but fairly well mixed boundary layer and
support 50-60 mph gusts along the coast, especially the Islands, and
outer Cape Cod to Cape Ann where there is some risk for 65 mph
gusts. Strongest gusts will occur Wed evening along the south coast,
then shift to Cape Cod northward through Cape Ann late Wed night
through Thu morning. We issued a high wind watch for the entire
coast. A secondary wind max is likely occur over elevated terrain
from NE CT through central MA and the Berkshires. Wind advisories
will likely be needed here.

Heavy rain and flooding...

Rain will become heavy at times Wed night as the low level jet lifts
north across the region, with heavy precip lingering into Thu
morning for NE MA along the nose of the low level jet. Rainfall of
1.5 to 2.5 inches is expected which will likely cause renewed
flooding for many of the rivers in RI and eastern MA that have
recently experienced flooding. River flood watches were issued for
these rivers.

Coastal Flooding...

See section below.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Highlights:

Key Points...

* Drier but unsettled weather continues through Saturday with
  widely scattered rain and snow showers around.

* Drying out for Sunday and Monday before another system may arrive
  around Tuesday

Details...

Thursday night through Saturday...

The overall pattern doesn't change very quickly on the back side of
the mid-week storm system; thanks to downstream ridging the low will
be slow to exit east, sitting over SNE and then the Gulf of Maine
through Thursday night, Friday, Friday night, and Saturday, at
least. This placement beneath cyclonic flow with a cold pool aloft
and NW flow will keep scattered rain and snow showers around through
Saturday,despite a much drier column than we dealt with Wednesday
night into Thursday. The best chance for any of these showers to
fall as snow will be in the high terrain of the Berkshires and
Worcester Hills. Temperatures will be a bit below average under the
trough, with highs in the low to mid 40s each day.

Sunday through Tuesday...

Now that we're within the 7 day forecast period for the solar
eclipse, all eyes are on Monday. The good news is that the forecast
for a ridge of high pressure continues to show up in all the global
guidance. This would portend a good chance for sun, clear skies, and
favorable viewing conditions. The bad news is we're still 6 days out
which, as we know, in the weather world is an eternity. Given the
way that the forecast tends to evolve as we approach, there remains
chance that things will become less favorable as we approach. At
this point we will simply emphasize that anyone interested in the
eclipse forecast should check back each day to see how the forecast
has evolved. Temperature-wise things will be trending more pleasant
under warm advection with highs reaching into the low 60s on Monday.
Beyond that another system may impact the region on Tuesday but
confidence is low.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High- greater than 60 percent.

Tonight...High confidence in trends, moderate in timing.

There will be a bit of a break from rain as drier air pushes in
from northeasterly flow. Thinking we still have drizzle across
the higher elevations from upslope, but for most will improve to
VFR between 01-06Z. The latter times most likely for
BAF/BDL/ORH. Increasing ENE winds of 10-15 kts late with gusts
15-30 kts toward daybreak.

Wednesday... Moderate confidence.

Another slug of moisture moves in from SW to NE. This brings
rain for most along with MVFR/IFR conditions. The only exception
is across the higher elevations, such as ORH/BAF where sleet
mixes in with rain or becomes all sleet during the afternoon.
Could even see sleet mixing in at BDL and perhaps BED/BOS toward
the very end of the TAF. For now have held off at BOS, but may
be needed in future updates. Winds out of the ENE/E and continue
to increase. Will be quite strong with gusts 25 to 50 kts
during the afternoon. Will have the highest gusts across the
higher terrain and coastal areas.

Wednesday Night...Moderate confidence.

IFR to LIFR conditions. Wintry mix across the higher elevations
gradually transitioning to all snow. Some uncertainty with the
extent of wintry mix/snow across some lower elevation terminals,
such as BED/BDL. Elsewhere am anticipating a cold rain at this
point. Strong E to NE winds with gusts 30-55 kts. The strongest
gusts are anticipated across the higher terrain and coastal
areas.

KBOS TAF...Moderate Confidence

MVFR stratus lingers nearby/over the terminal for today with NE
to ENE winds. Anticipate it to remain dry other than perhaps a
few rain drops, but should see improvement to VFR roughly 23-01Z.
Rain spreads in 14-17Z Wed with MVFR conditions. Should have IFR
by the afternoon and perhaps some RAPL toward the end of the
TAF. Strong ENE to E winds tomorrow at 15-25 kts with gusts of
25-35 kts.

KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF trends, moderate in timing.

VFR to start, but light rain will lower to MVFR ceilings roughly
around 20Z. Should continue to rain until this evening with
lowering ceilings and perhaps IFR ceilings. Should improve back
to VFR late with rain/drizzle ending roughly 06-08Z. Rain
spreads back in for the AM push Wed with ENE to E winds
increasing throughout the day and a return to MVFR ceilings.
Should have some RAPL mixing in during the afternoon.

Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...

Thursday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Windy with local
gusts up to 30 kt. Chance SHRA, chance SHSN, patchy BR.

Friday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Chance
SHRA.

Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Breezy.
Chance SHRA.

Saturday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA.

Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy.
Chance SHRA.

Sunday: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Thursday...

Upgraded to storm warnings for all waters, except storm watches for
Boston Harbor and Narragansett Bay.

Winds will be ramping up during Wed with the peak of the wind
occurring Wed night into Thu morning as 60-70 kt easterly low level
jet lifts north across the waters Wed night into Thu. The core of
the jet will be over the south coastal waters Wed evening, then lift
into the NE MA waters late Wed night and Thu morning. Wind gusts to
45-55 kt expected. The strongest of the gusts will likely be focused
over NE MA waters Thu morning. Seas will build to 20-25 ft over
the eastern MA outer waters late Wed night and Thu. This will be
a dangerous storm for mariners.

Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...

Thursday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 15 ft. Chance of rain
showers. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Friday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.
Chance of rain showers. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Saturday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers,
patchy fog. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Saturday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds
with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain
showers.

Sunday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Widespread minor flooding is expected along both the south and east
coasts during the Thu morning high tide, with a risk for moderate
flooding for portions of the eastern MA coast. We issued a coastal
flood watch for the entire coast.

Along the east coast, the greatest risk is from Scituate to the
north shore as the core of the low level jet will coincide with the
high tide around 12z. PETTS guidance is suggesting a 3-3.5 ft surge
which combined with 20+ ft seas just offshore will be enough for
widespread minor flooding with pockets of moderate flooding. The
greatest risk for moderate will be along the north shore including
Plum Island. Significant beach erosion is also possible for
vulnerable areas from the ocean side of the Cape to northeast MA.

Along the south coast, there is more uncertainty with the magnitude
of the storm surge. Stevens Institute is indicating a surge around
2.5 ft while PETTS guidance is 3.5 to 4 ft. We think pressure falls
will play a big role along the south coast as max pressure falls are
occurring near high tide with 25+ mb falls in 24 hours which equates
to about a 1 ft sea level rise. We blended the guidance which would
support minor flooding. However, if the surge approaches 4 ft we
could see pockets of moderate flooding so we decided to issue a
coastal flood watch for the south coast as well.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...Winter Storm Watch from 8 AM EDT Wednesday through Thursday
     evening for MAZ002-004-008-026.
     High Wind Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday
     afternoon for MAZ007-015-016-019-022.
     Coastal Flood Watch Thursday morning for MAZ007-015-016-019-
     022>024.
     High Wind Watch from Wednesday afternoon through late
     Wednesday night for MAZ020-021-023-024.
     Coastal Flood Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday
     morning for MAZ020-021.
RI...High Wind Watch from Wednesday afternoon through late
     Wednesday night for RIZ006>008.
     Coastal Flood Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday
     morning for RIZ002-004>007.
MARINE...Storm Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday morning
     for ANZ230.
     Storm Warning from 8 PM Wednesday to 11 AM EDT Thursday for
     ANZ231.
     Storm Warning from 2 PM Wednesday to 8 AM EDT Thursday for
     ANZ232-255.
     Storm Warning from 2 PM Wednesday to 4 AM EDT Thursday for
     ANZ233>235-237-256.
     Storm Watch from Wednesday evening through late Wednesday
     night for ANZ236.
     Storm Warning from 8 PM Wednesday to 2 PM EDT Thursday for
     ANZ250-251.
     Storm Warning from 5 PM Wednesday to 11 AM EDT Thursday for
     ANZ254.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KJC/Frank/BW
NEAR TERM...Frank/BW/KP
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...BL
MARINE...KJC/BW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KJC