High Wind Warning 1, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

406 
WWUS71 KBOX 090856
NPWBOX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
356 AM EST Tue Jan 9 2024

MAZ007-017-018-RIZ004-005-092200-
/O.UPG.KBOX.HW.A.0001.240109T2200Z-240110T1800Z/
/O.EXA.KBOX.HW.W.0001.240109T2200Z-240110T1800Z/
Eastern Essex MA-Northern Bristol MA-Western Plymouth MA-
Eastern Kent RI-Bristol RI-
Including the cities of Gloucester, Taunton, Brockton, 
East Greenwich, Warwick, West Warwick, and Bristol
356 AM EST Tue Jan 9 2024

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM
EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...In Massachusetts, Eastern Essex, Northern Bristol and 
  Western Plymouth Counties. In Rhode Island, Eastern Kent and 
  Bristol Counties.

* WHEN...From 5 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds could blow down trees and power 
  lines. Power outages are possible. Travel could be difficult, 
  especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

MAZ019>024-RIZ006>008-092200-
/O.CON.KBOX.HW.W.0001.240109T2200Z-240110T1800Z/
Eastern Plymouth MA-Southern Bristol MA-Southern Plymouth MA-
Barnstable MA-Dukes MA-Nantucket MA-Washington RI-Newport RI-
Block Island RI-
Including the cities of Plymouth, Fall River, New Bedford, 
Mattapoisett, Chatham, Falmouth, Provincetown, Vineyard Haven, 
Nantucket, Narragansett, Westerly, Newport, and New Shoreham
356 AM EST Tue Jan 9 2024

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON
TO 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 65 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Eastern and Southern Plymouth, Washington, Southern 
  Bristol, Barnstable, Dukes, Nantucket, and Newport Counties.

* WHEN...From 5 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds could blow down trees and power 
  lines. Power outages are possible. Travel could be difficult, 
  especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

CTZ003-004-MAZ006-013>016-RIZ001>003-092200-
/O.UPG.KBOX.HW.A.0001.240109T2200Z-240110T1800Z/
/O.EXA.KBOX.WI.Y.0002.240109T2200Z-240110T1800Z/
Tolland CT-Windham CT-Western Essex MA-Western Norfolk MA-
Southeast Middlesex MA-Suffolk MA-Eastern Norfolk MA-
Northwest Providence RI-Southeast Providence RI-Western Kent RI-
Including the cities of Union, Vernon, Putnam, Willimantic, 
Lawrence, Foxborough, Norwood, Cambridge, Boston, Quincy, Foster,
Smithfield, Providence, Coventry, and West Greenwich
356 AM EST Tue Jan 9 2024

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Norfolk, Providence, Tolland, Windham, Western Essex, 
  Southeast Middlesex, Suffolk, and Western Kent Counties.

* WHEN...From 5 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

CTZ002-MAZ004-005-009-011-012-026-092200-
/O.CON.KBOX.WI.Y.0002.240109T2200Z-240110T1800Z/
Hartford CT-Northern Worcester MA-Central Middlesex MA-
Western Hampden MA-Eastern Hampden MA-Southern Worcester MA-
Northern Middlesex MA-
Including the cities of Hartford, Windsor Locks, Barre, 
Fitchburg, Framingham, Lowell, Blandford, Springfield, Milford, 
Worcester, and Ayer
356 AM EST Tue Jan 9 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
1 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Hampden, Worcester, Northern and Central Middlesex, 
  and Hartford Counties.

* WHEN...From 5 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/box

457 
WWUS71 KBOX 091037
NPWBOX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
537 AM EST Tue Jan 9 2024

MAZ007-017>024-RIZ004>008-100045-
/O.CON.KBOX.HW.W.0001.240109T2200Z-240110T1800Z/
Eastern Essex MA-Northern Bristol MA-Western Plymouth MA-
Eastern Plymouth MA-Southern Bristol MA-Southern Plymouth MA-
Barnstable MA-Dukes MA-Nantucket MA-Eastern Kent RI-Bristol RI-
Washington RI-Newport RI-Block Island RI-
Including the cities of Gloucester, Taunton, Brockton, Plymouth, 
Fall River, New Bedford, Mattapoisett, Chatham, Falmouth, 
Provincetown, Vineyard Haven, Nantucket, East Greenwich, Warwick,
West Warwick, Bristol, Narragansett, Westerly, Newport, 
and New Shoreham
537 AM EST Tue Jan 9 2024

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON
TO 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 65 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Portions of northeastern and southeastern 
  Massachusetts and northern and southern Rhode Island.

* WHEN...From 5 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds could blow down trees and power 
  lines. Power outages are possible. Travel could be difficult, 
  especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

MAZ002-003-008-010-100045-
/O.EXA.KBOX.WI.Y.0002.240109T2200Z-240110T1800Z/
Western Franklin MA-Eastern Franklin MA-Western Hampshire MA-
Eastern Hampshire MA-
Including the cities of Charlemont, Greenfield, Orange, 
Chesterfield, Amherst, and Northampton
537 AM EST Tue Jan 9 2024

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Franklin, and Hampshire Counties.

* WHEN...From 5 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

CTZ002>004-MAZ004>006-009-011>016-026-RIZ001>003-100045-
/O.CON.KBOX.WI.Y.0002.240109T2200Z-240110T1800Z/
Hartford CT-Tolland CT-Windham CT-Northern Worcester MA-
Central Middlesex MA-Western Essex MA-Western Hampden MA-
Eastern Hampden MA-Southern Worcester MA-Western Norfolk MA-
Southeast Middlesex MA-Suffolk MA-Eastern Norfolk MA-
Northern Middlesex MA-Northwest Providence RI-
Southeast Providence RI-Western Kent RI-
Including the cities of Hartford, Windsor Locks, Union, Vernon, 
Putnam, Willimantic, Barre, Fitchburg, Framingham, Lowell, 
Lawrence, Blandford, Springfield, Milford, Worcester, Foxborough,
Norwood, Cambridge, Boston, Quincy, Ayer, Foster, Smithfield, 
Providence, Coventry, and West Greenwich
537 AM EST Tue Jan 9 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
1 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Portions of northern Connecticut, central, eastern, 
  northeastern and western Massachusetts and northern Rhode 
  Island.

* WHEN...From 5 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/box

232 
WWUS71 KBOX 092038
NPWBOX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
338 PM EST Tue Jan 9 2024

MAZ007-017>024-RIZ004>008-100945-
/O.CON.KBOX.HW.W.0001.240109T2200Z-240110T1800Z/
Eastern Essex MA-Northern Bristol MA-Western Plymouth MA-
Eastern Plymouth MA-Southern Bristol MA-Southern Plymouth MA-
Barnstable MA-Dukes MA-Nantucket MA-Eastern Kent RI-Bristol RI-
Washington RI-Newport RI-Block Island RI-
Including the cities of Gloucester, Taunton, Brockton, Plymouth, 
Fall River, New Bedford, Mattapoisett, Chatham, Falmouth, 
Provincetown, Vineyard Haven, Nantucket, East Greenwich, Warwick,
West Warwick, Bristol, Narragansett, Westerly, Newport, 
and New Shoreham
338 PM EST Tue Jan 9 2024

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts to 60 to 65 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Portions of northeastern and southeastern 
  Massachusetts and northern and southern Rhode Island.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds could blow down trees and power 
  lines. Power outages are possible. Travel could be difficult, 
  especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>006-008>016-026-RIZ001>003-100945-
/O.CON.KBOX.WI.Y.0002.240109T2200Z-240110T1800Z/
Hartford CT-Tolland CT-Windham CT-Western Franklin MA-
Eastern Franklin MA-Northern Worcester MA-Central Middlesex MA-
Western Essex MA-Western Hampshire MA-Western Hampden MA-
Eastern Hampshire MA-Eastern Hampden MA-Southern Worcester MA-
Western Norfolk MA-Southeast Middlesex MA-Suffolk MA-
Eastern Norfolk MA-Northern Middlesex MA-Northwest Providence RI-
Southeast Providence RI-Western Kent RI-
Including the cities of Hartford, Windsor Locks, Union, Vernon, 
Putnam, Willimantic, Charlemont, Greenfield, Orange, Barre, 
Fitchburg, Framingham, Lowell, Lawrence, Chesterfield, Blandford,
Amherst, Northampton, Springfield, Milford, Worcester, 
Foxborough, Norwood, Cambridge, Boston, Quincy, Ayer, Foster, 
Smithfield, Providence, Coventry, and West Greenwich
338 PM EST Tue Jan 9 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Portions of northern Connecticut, central, eastern, 
  northeastern and western Massachusetts and northern Rhode 
  Island.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/box

950 
WWUS71 KBOX 100835
NPWBOX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
335 AM EST Wed Jan 10 2024

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>004-008>012-026-100945-
/O.CAN.KBOX.WI.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-240110T1800Z/
Hartford CT-Tolland CT-Windham CT-Western Franklin MA-
Eastern Franklin MA-Northern Worcester MA-Western Hampshire MA-
Western Hampden MA-Eastern Hampshire MA-Eastern Hampden MA-
Southern Worcester MA-Northern Middlesex MA-
Including the cities of Hartford, Windsor Locks, Union, Vernon, 
Putnam, Willimantic, Charlemont, Greenfield, Orange, Barre, 
Fitchburg, Chesterfield, Blandford, Amherst, Northampton, 
Springfield, Milford, Worcester, and Ayer
335 AM EST Wed Jan 10 2024

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Wind advisory is cancelled as wind gusts have fallen below the
criteria for a Wind Advisory. Still, we expect periodic gusts
between 30 and 40 MPH are possible today, which could compromise 
trees located on saturated grounds. 

$$

MAZ007-017>024-RIZ004>008-101800-
/O.CON.KBOX.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-240110T1800Z/
Eastern Essex MA-Northern Bristol MA-Western Plymouth MA-
Eastern Plymouth MA-Southern Bristol MA-Southern Plymouth MA-
Barnstable MA-Dukes MA-Nantucket MA-Eastern Kent RI-Bristol RI-
Washington RI-Newport RI-Block Island RI-
Including the cities of Gloucester, Taunton, Brockton, Plymouth, 
Fall River, New Bedford, Mattapoisett, Chatham, Falmouth, 
Provincetown, Vineyard Haven, Nantucket, East Greenwich, Warwick,
West Warwick, Bristol, Narragansett, Westerly, Newport, 
and New Shoreham
335 AM EST Wed Jan 10 2024

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...South winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of northeastern and southeastern 
  Massachusetts and northern and southern Rhode Island.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds could blow down trees and power 
  lines. Power outages are possible. Travel could be difficult, 
  especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

MAZ005-006-013>016-RIZ001>003-101800-
/O.CON.KBOX.WI.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-240110T1800Z/
Central Middlesex MA-Western Essex MA-Western Norfolk MA-
Southeast Middlesex MA-Suffolk MA-Eastern Norfolk MA-
Northwest Providence RI-Southeast Providence RI-Western Kent RI-
Including the cities of Framingham, Lowell, Lawrence, Foxborough,
Norwood, Cambridge, Boston, Quincy, Foster, Smithfield, 
Providence, Coventry, and West Greenwich
335 AM EST Wed Jan 10 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...South winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Central and Southeast Middlesex, Norfolk, Providence, 
  Western Essex, Suffolk, and Western Kent Counties.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/box

827 
WWUS71 KBOX 101204
NPWBOX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
704 AM EST Wed Jan 10 2024

MAZ007-017>024-RIZ004>008-101500-
/O.CAN.KBOX.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-240110T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.WI.Y.0003.240110T1204Z-240110T1500Z/
Eastern Essex MA-Northern Bristol MA-Western Plymouth MA-
Eastern Plymouth MA-Southern Bristol MA-Southern Plymouth MA-
Barnstable MA-Dukes MA-Nantucket MA-Eastern Kent RI-Bristol RI-
Washington RI-Newport RI-Block Island RI-
Including the cities of Gloucester, Taunton, Brockton, Plymouth, 
Fall River, New Bedford, Mattapoisett, Chatham, Falmouth, 
Provincetown, Vineyard Haven, Nantucket, East Greenwich, Warwick,
West Warwick, Bristol, Narragansett, Westerly, Newport, 
and New Shoreham
704 AM EST Wed Jan 10 2024

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING...
...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of northeastern and southeastern 
  Massachusetts and northern and southern Rhode Island.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM EST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

MAZ005-006-013>016-RIZ001>003-101315-
/O.CAN.KBOX.WI.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-240110T1800Z/
Central Middlesex MA-Western Essex MA-Western Norfolk MA-
Southeast Middlesex MA-Suffolk MA-Eastern Norfolk MA-
Northwest Providence RI-Southeast Providence RI-Western Kent RI-
Including the cities of Framingham, Lowell, Lawrence, Foxborough,
Norwood, Cambridge, Boston, Quincy, Foster, Smithfield, 
Providence, Coventry, and West Greenwich
704 AM EST Wed Jan 10 2024

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Winds will become southwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph
this morning.

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/box

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1239 PM EST Mon Jan 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry but cold weather will be featured today as high pressure
builds into New England from the west. The high provides dry
weather into Tuesday morning. A potentially high impact frontal
system moves in late Tuesday into Wednesday. This has the
potential to bring strong to damaging winds, heavy rain, coastal
flooding and river/stream flooding. We turn drier late in the
week before another system takes aim at us this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
9 AM Update...

As with the previous update, the only minor alteration to the
forecast at this hour was in regards to cloud cover. Blended
the HRRR into the forecast as this most recent update was
managing the timing and coverage of clouds well.

Otherwise, light winds will begin to pick up late this morning
and afternoon with gusts in excess of 20kt possible. Abundant
sunshine will help to melt some ice and snow, primarily on south
facing dark surfaces.

615 AM Update...

Forecast generally on track, but did bump up sky cover as we've
got fairly expansive stratocu over the area. Most guidance not
doing a great job with this other than the overdone GLAMP
guidance. Blended toward this and made some adjustments for the
next 2-3 hrs, but should be clearing through the morning and
into the afternoon.

345 AM update...

Today...

* Dry but cold along with a chilly NW breeze

Despite increasing sunshine today, a fresh snow cover combined with
a chilly airmass will yield highs only in the mid to upper 30s.
While these temps are seasonably cold for early Jan, a NW breeze 10-
15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph across the Cape and Islands will make
it feel a bit colder.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
345 AM update...

Tonight...

* Dry but cold with lows in the teens most areas

Ridge of high pressure crest over the region, promoting mostly
clear, light winds, dry airmass combined with a fresh snowpack to
allow temps to fall into the teens. Not quite as cold in the urban
areas and along the coast, with lows in the 20s. Mid and high clouds
from developing WAA pattern to our west, may arrive late at night.
This may result in temps leveling off or perhaps rising a few degs
toward daybreak Tue.

Tuesday...

* Dry start but precip arriving later in the day

Deep layer ridge over the region at 12z. This will support dry
weather along with some morning sunshine, especially across eastern
MA. But then increasing clouds as anomalous high amplitude trough
approaches from the west. Precip overspreads the region during the
afternoon and especially late in the day. Blyr warm enough to
support mainly rain across CT/RI into eastern MA. However, across
western-central MA, model soundings suggest wet bulb temps thru
the column support a period of snow followed by a wintry mix of
sleet and/or freezing rain, then eventually all rain Tue night.
Highs in the 40s before the precip arrives, except upper 30s
northwest MA, then temps falling a few degs due to evaporative
cooling. Light winds in the morning, but then increasing from
the ESE 10-15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph along the coast late
in the day.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
345 AM update...

Highlights

*  Potentially high impact multi-faceted system Tue Night into Wed.
   Strong to damaging winds, heavy rainfall, coastal and
   river/stream flooding all possible. Quick hit of accumulating
   snow also possible across the higher terrain of the interior.

* Drier Thu to Fri with above normal temps.

* Active pattern continues as another system takes aim at our region
  this weekend.

Given the ongoing system have stuck with the NBM through the
forecast.

Tuesday Night through Wednesday...

Placed all emphasis of the extended on this period of the forecast
as a high impact weather event is possible across southern New
England. Signals have continued to point toward this over the past
couple of days. A multi-faceted system is anticipated to bring
strong to damaging winds, heavy rain, coastal flooding and river
flooding. Could also have a quick front end thump, mainly across the
higher terrain, before ptype changes over to all rain.

Synoptic details...

A deep neutrally tilted trough will be located over the Lower/Middle
Mississippi River Valley Tue AM.  Low/Mid Mississippi River Valley
Tue AM. This will lift into the TN/OH Valley beginning to become
slightly negatively tilted Tue evening. The trough continues to lift
northeastward into the eastern Great Lakes/Mid Atlantic Wed
afternoon becoming negatively tilted. The trough lifts through by
Wed Night. A powerful frontal system lifts through southern New
England during this timeframe.

Wind Signals...

Confidence remains high for strong to damaging winds. In our latest
update have issued a High Wind Watch across roughly the I-95
corridor eastward and Storm Watches for the marine areas. The latest
NAEFS/EPS guidance still showing winds 5-6 STD above model climo
over the BOX area! The main timeframe that is highlighted is Tue
Night into early Fri morning period. During this timeframe a 60-90+
kt S/SSE low level jet slides through. At 925 hPa level
deterministic guidance progged to push a 40-80+ kt SSE/S jet
through. The big question that remains is how much of these winds
mix down, especially given the snowpack we just received could
hamper the amount of mixing within the boundary layer. The GFS/NAM
Bufkit soundings show 40-80 kts only 1 kft off the deck. Given the
melting snowpack due to rain will not be immediate have hoisted the
High Wind Watch generally over the areas where this is not an issue
and where am most confident. The EPS guidance continues to indicate
moderate to high probs (40-100%) of gusts AOA 50 kts across the
eastern MA coast. Further inland probs are low to moderate (<10 to
40%) from eastern CT into RI and eastern portions of central MA. The
EPS also still showing low to moderate (10-60%) probs of gusts AOA
64 kts across SE MA, Cape Ann and the waters. Not out of the
question there could be occasional Hurricane Force Wind gusts across
the ocean waters, but given the ocean SST we don't tend to mix as
well over the waters with S/SSE flow.

Heavy precipitation...

As was the case over the past couple of days confidence also remains
high in heavy precipitation. Due to this have put up a Flood Watch
for much of southern New England as the combination of heavy
rainfall combined with the snowpack has the potential to result in
significant flooding. Interestingly, the risk for heavy downpours
appears to be over a relatively short period as there are signals of
a fine line working its way through Tue Night into early Wed.
Showing PWATs per the ensemble situational awareness table of 3-4+
STD above model climo over the BOX area. Generally looks like we get
into 1-1.5 inch PWATs, which is near or above record values for CHH
(per SPC Sounding Climo). Still seeing efficient warm rain processes
as warm cloud layer depths are roughly 8-10 kft, though do not have
much experience looking at warm cloud layer depths in Jan at this
latitude. The GEFS and EPS M-Climate continue to show much of
central/western southern New England nearing or over the max of
reforecast climo (going back to the early 2000s) with mean of 2" of
QPF. On top of this the ECWMF Extreme forecast index also hammering
a highly atypical event, especially across the CT River Valley where
some upslope component will enhance rainfall totals. At this point
anticipating widespread 1.5-3 inches of rainfall. Very concerned
given the snowpack we've got across the region. This will likely not
only impact the immediate flood risk, but also extended into river
flooding. Given these signals collaborated with WPC to include
portions of southern New England in the Moderate risk for excessive
rainfall.

River Flooding...

Given the precip anticipated in combination with rapidly melting
snow (as dew points will climb into the mid 40s to low 50s with the
rain and strong winds) will likely have river flooding as well. At
this point the MMEFS indicating several locations have a 30% chance
of exceeding minor flooding and a few having a 30% chance of
exceeding moderate.

Coastal Flooding...

Could still have an impactful coastal flooding event across the
region with the strong SSE/S flow, but need to really time the surge
of the strongest winds and pressure rise/fall couplet. Given there
is some timing uncertainty with the 2-4+ ft surge and if it
coincides with high tide have held off from any headlines at this
point. If there are impacts it could be for the Wed AM High tide.
This is something we will need to look at closer in future forecast
updates.

Snowfall...

Will have a brief opportunity for some accumulating snowfall across
the higher terrain areas Tue eve before precipitation changes over
to all rain. Given the higher impacts with the winds, rain and
flooding did not place a lot of emphasis in this area. Will see a
thump of accumulating snow across generally the higher terrain from
00-06Z, but should have most spots change over to all rain by 03Z.
There is some discrepancy with how quickly the warmer air gets in
with most guidance a being fairly quick. Given this uncertainty have
generally stuck with the NBM, but it is not out of the question that
Winter Weather headlines may be necessary for portions of the region
in later updates.

Thursday and Friday...

Generally expecting dry and quiet weather through this timeframe
with high pressure in control. Will still be a bit breezy on Thu due
to the tightened pressure gradient. As prev mentioned more confident
on a completely dry forecast on Fri as a shortwave swings through
Thu. At most this would bring us a few spotty showers, but given the
impact on Tue Night-Wed did not focus on the fine details at this
point.

Next Weekend...

The active pattern continues as another deep trough takes aim at our
region. At this point looks like a late Fri Night into Sat event,
but there are some timing, intensity and exact track differences.
Could be another impactful event as the NAEFS/EPS situational
awareness table show winds/PWATs roughly 2-3 STD above model climo.
All ensembles showing low-mod (10-50%) probs of 24 hr QPF AOA 1
inch, though the EPS does have some mod-high probs along the south
coast (40-80%). This is a concerning signal given it would likely
exacerbate any flooding issues we get from the mid week system. Stay
tuned!

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

18z TAF update...

Through 00z...

VFR with diminishing NW wind. MVFR cigs outer Cape/ACK clearing
out by 21z.

Tonight...High confidence.

VFR with light winds.

Tuesday...High confidence on trends, lower confidence on exact
timing.

VFR to start, then a mix of snow/rain and MVFR/IFR overspreads
the region 20z-00z from west to east. Snow mainly confined to
interior MA. Winds becoming SE and increasing to 10-20 kt by
days end.

Tuesday night...High confidence.

Widespread IFR/LIFR in rain, heavy at times. Interior MA high
terrain snow changing to rain by 03z. Increasing SE winds with
gusts 35-45 kt developing after midnight, gusts to 55 kt near
the coast.

KBOS TAF...High confidence. But some uncertainty on exact
timing of rain and MVFR conditions late Tue.

KBDL TAF...High confidence. But uncertainty on exact timing of
rain and MVFR/IFR conditions Tue afternoon. Precip may begin as
a rain-snow mix.

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...

Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Strong winds
with gusts up to 55 kt. Chance RA.

Wednesday Night: VFR. Strong winds with local gusts up to
40 kt.

Thursday through Thursday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Friday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance RA.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

345 AM update...high confidence thru Tuesday

Today...high pressure builds into New England from the west. NW
winds will slowly diminish today. Dry weather and good vsby.

Tonight...high pressure crest over New England, providing light
winds, dry weather and good vsby.

Tuesday...high pressure over eastern New England moves offshore. ESE
winds slowly strengthen thru the afternoon to 15-25 kt. Rain
overspreads the waters in the afternoon and esp late in the day.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Saturday/...

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Chance of rain.

Tuesday Night: gale force winds with gusts up to 45 kt. Rough
seas up to 20 ft. Rain, isolated thunderstorms. Areas of
visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Wednesday: gale force winds with gusts up to 45 kt. Rough seas
up to 20 ft. Chance of rain, isolated thunderstorms.

Wednesday Night: Strong winds with areas of gusts up to 45 kt.
Rough seas up to 17 ft.

Thursday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
local gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 12 ft.

Thursday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds
with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Slight chance of rain.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Flood Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday afternoon
     for CTZ002>004.
MA...Flood Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday afternoon
     for MAZ002>021-026.
     High Wind Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday
     afternoon for MAZ006-007-013>024.
RI...Flood Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday afternoon
     for RIZ001>007.
     High Wind Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday
     afternoon for RIZ001>008.
MARINE...Storm Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning for
     ANZ230-236.
     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for
     ANZ231>235-237-251.
     Storm Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday afternoon
     for ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Nocera/BL
NEAR TERM...Nocera/BL/KS
SHORT TERM...Nocera
LONG TERM...BL
AVIATION...KJC/BL
MARINE...Nocera/BL