Coastal Flood Statement 4, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

406 
WHUS41 KBOX 110856
CFWBOX

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
356 AM EST Sun Feb 11 2024

MAZ007-015-016-019-022-112200-
/O.NEW.KBOX.CF.A.0003.240213T1700Z-240213T2200Z/
/O.CON.KBOX.CF.S.0004.240211T1500Z-240211T1900Z/
Eastern Essex MA-Suffolk MA-Eastern Norfolk MA-
Eastern Plymouth MA-Barnstable MA-
356 AM EST Sun Feb 11 2024

...COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS
MORNING TO 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...For the Coastal Flood Statement, up to one foot of 
  inundation above ground level expected in low-lying areas near 
  shorelines and tidal waterways (3.7 to 13.2 feet Mean Lower 
  Low Water). For the Coastal Flood Watch, one to two feet of 
  inundation above ground level possible in low-lying areas near 
  shorelines and tidal waterways (4.3 to 14.2 feet Mean Lower 
  Low Water).

* WHERE...Eastern Essex MA, Suffolk MA, Eastern Norfolk MA, 
  Eastern Plymouth MA and Barnstable MA Counties.

* WHEN...For the Coastal Flood Statement, from 10 AM this 
  morning to 2 PM EST this afternoon. For the Coastal Flood 
  Watch, Tuesday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Some vulnerable coastal roads become impassable 
  around high tide. Flooding 1 to 2 feet deep affects some 
  coastal roads and low lying areas from Revere and Winthrop 
  through Boston to Hull, Braintree, and Quincy. Splashover and 
  debris may wash onto coastal roads when large waves occur. 
  Most roads remain passable. Flooding up to one foot deep 
  affects coastal roads on the North Shore from Salem to 
  Gloucester and Newburyport. Rough surf will cause flooding on 
  some coastal roads around the time of high tide due to 
  splashover. Roads remain passable. Shallow pockets of flooding 
  less than one foot deep affect low lying areas in 
  Provincetown, mainly near the airport and Race Point Road. In 
  Truro, flooding up to one foot deep affects low lying areas 
  near Pamet Harbor and along the Pamet River.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be
closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of
unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone
property.

&&

&&

Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.

Gloucester Harbor
MLLW Categories - Minor 11.5 ft, Moderate 13.0 ft, Major 15.0 ft
MHHW Categories - Minor 2.0 ft, Moderate 3.5 ft, Major 5.5 ft

             Total      Total    Departure                   
 Day/Time    Tide       Tide     from Norm   Waves    Flood  
            ft MLLW    ft MHHW       ft       ft      Impact 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 11/12 PM  11.3/11.8   1.8/ 2.2   0.4/ 0.9     3      Minor    
 12/01 AM  10.5/11.0   1.0/ 1.5   0.4/ 0.9     2       None    
 12/01 PM  11.1/11.6   1.6/ 2.0   0.2/ 0.8     2       None    
 13/01 AM  10.7/11.2   1.2/ 1.7   0.4/ 0.9    1-2      None    
 13/02 PM  12.1/12.6   2.6/ 3.1   1.7/ 2.2   7-10     Minor

Merrimack River near Newburyport MA
MLLW Categories - Minor 11.0 ft, Moderate 12.0 ft, Major 13.5 ft
MHHW Categories - Minor 1.5 ft, Moderate 2.5 ft, Major 4.0 ft

             Total      Total    Departure                   
 Day/Time    Tide       Tide     from Norm   Waves    Flood  
            ft MLLW    ft MHHW       ft       ft      Impact 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 11/12 PM  10.1/10.6   0.6/ 1.1   0.4/ 0.9     2       None    
 12/01 AM   9.5/10.0   0.0/ 0.5   0.5/ 1.0    1-2      None    
 12/01 PM   9.9/10.4   0.4/ 0.9   0.2/ 0.8     1       None    
 13/02 AM   9.7/10.2   0.2/ 0.7   0.5/ 1.0     1       None    
 13/02 PM  10.9/11.4   1.4/ 1.9   1.6/ 2.0    4-6     Minor

Boston Harbor
MLLW Categories - Minor 12.5 ft, Moderate 14.0 ft, Major 15.0 ft
MHHW Categories - Minor 2.4 ft, Moderate 3.9 ft, Major 4.9 ft

             Total      Total    Departure                   
 Day/Time    Tide       Tide     from Norm   Waves    Flood  
            ft MLLW    ft MHHW       ft       ft      Impact 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 11/12 PM  12.6/13.1   2.5/ 3.0   1.2/ 1.7    1-2     Minor    
 12/01 AM  11.7/12.2   1.6/ 2.0   1.2/ 1.7     1       None    
 12/01 PM  12.3/12.8   2.2/ 2.7   1.1/ 1.6     1      Minor    
 13/01 AM  11.8/12.3   1.7/ 2.2   1.1/ 1.6     1       None    
 13/02 PM  13.4/13.9   3.2/ 3.7   2.6/ 3.1     2      Minor

Revere
MLLW Categories - Minor 12.5 ft, Moderate 14.5 ft, Major 16.0 ft
MHHW Categories - Minor 2.6 ft, Moderate 4.6 ft, Major 6.1 ft

             Total      Total    Departure                   
 Day/Time    Tide       Tide     from Norm   Waves    Flood  
            ft MLLW    ft MHHW       ft       ft      Impact 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 11/12 PM  12.9/13.4   3.0/ 3.5   1.2/ 1.7     1      Minor    
 12/01 AM  11.8/12.3   1.9/ 2.3   1.1/ 1.6     1       None    
 12/01 PM  12.6/13.1   2.7/ 3.2   1.1/ 1.6     1      Minor    
 13/01 AM  12.0/12.5   2.1/ 2.6   1.1/ 1.6     1       None    
 13/02 PM  13.5/14.0   3.6/ 4.1   2.5/ 3.0     2      Minor

Scituate MA
MLLW Categories - Minor 11.5 ft, Moderate 13.5 ft, Major 15.5 ft
MHHW Categories - Minor 1.8 ft, Moderate 3.8 ft, Major 5.8 ft

             Total      Total    Departure                   
 Day/Time    Tide       Tide     from Norm   Waves    Flood  
            ft MLLW    ft MHHW       ft       ft      Impact 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 11/12 PM  12.0/12.5   2.2/ 2.7   0.9/ 1.4     2      Minor    
 12/01 AM  11.2/11.7   1.5/ 2.0   0.9/ 1.4     2       None    
 12/01 PM  11.9/12.4   2.2/ 2.7   0.9/ 1.4     1      Minor    
 13/01 AM  11.5/12.0   1.8/ 2.2   0.9/ 1.4    1-2     Minor    
 13/02 PM  13.0/13.5   3.2/ 3.7   2.2/ 2.7   6-10     Minor

Buzzards Bay at Woods Hole
MLLW Categories - Minor 5.5 ft, Moderate 7.0 ft, Major 8.5 ft
MHHW Categories - Minor 3.5 ft, Moderate 5.0 ft, Major 6.5 ft

             Total      Total    Departure                   
 Day/Time    Tide       Tide     from Norm   Waves    Flood  
            ft MLLW    ft MHHW       ft       ft      Impact 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 11/09 AM   3.7/ 4.2   1.7/ 2.2   0.9/ 1.4     2       None    
 11/09 PM   3.5/ 4.0   1.5/ 2.0   0.8/ 1.3     1       None    
 12/10 AM   3.6/ 4.1   1.6/ 2.0   0.9/ 1.4     1       None    
 12/10 PM   3.6/ 4.1   1.6/ 2.0   0.9/ 1.4     1       None    
 13/11 AM   4.4/ 4.9   2.3/ 2.8   1.9/ 2.3    4-5      None    
 13/11 PM   4.4/ 4.9   2.3/ 2.8   1.7/ 2.2     4       None

Chatham MA - East Coast
MLLW Categories - Minor 9.0 ft, Moderate 11.5 ft, Major 13.0 ft
MHHW Categories - Minor 1.3 ft, Moderate 3.8 ft, Major 5.3 ft

             Total      Total    Departure                   
 Day/Time    Tide       Tide     from Norm   Waves    Flood  
            ft MLLW    ft MHHW       ft       ft      Impact 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 11/01 PM   6.1/ 6.6  -1.7/-1.2   0.2/ 0.7     3       None    
 12/01 AM   5.2/ 5.7  -2.5/-2.0   0.2/ 0.7     2       None    
 12/02 PM   5.9/ 6.4  -1.9/-1.4   0.1/ 0.6     2       None    
 13/02 AM   5.5/ 6.0  -2.2/-1.8   0.2/ 0.7     2       None    
 13/03 PM   6.6/ 7.1  -1.1/-0.7   1.1/ 1.6   8-11      None

Chatham - South side
MLLW Categories - Minor 9.0 ft, Moderate 10.5 ft, Major 11.5 ft
MHHW Categories - Minor 4.5 ft, Moderate 6.0 ft, Major 7.0 ft

             Total      Total    Departure                   
 Day/Time    Tide       Tide     from Norm   Waves    Flood  
            ft MLLW    ft MHHW       ft       ft      Impact 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 11/01 PM   5.1/ 5.6   0.6/ 1.1   0.4/ 0.9    2-3      None    
 12/01 AM   4.5/ 5.0   0.0/ 0.5   0.4/ 0.9     2       None    
 12/02 PM   5.0/ 5.5   0.5/ 1.0   0.4/ 0.9     2       None    
 13/02 AM   4.7/ 5.2   0.2/ 0.8   0.5/ 1.0     2       None    
 13/02 PM   5.5/ 6.0   1.0/ 1.5   1.3/ 1.8   7-10      None

Provincetown Harbor
MLLW Categories - Minor 13.0 ft, Moderate 14.0 ft, Major 15.0 ft
MHHW Categories - Minor 2.9 ft, Moderate 3.9 ft, Major 4.9 ft

             Total      Total    Departure                   
 Day/Time    Tide       Tide     from Norm   Waves    Flood  
            ft MLLW    ft MHHW       ft       ft      Impact 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 11/12 PM  12.6/13.1   2.5/ 3.0   1.0/ 1.5     3       None    
 12/01 AM  11.8/12.3   1.7/ 2.2   1.0/ 1.5     2       None    
 12/01 PM  12.4/12.9   2.2/ 2.7   1.0/ 1.5    1-2      None    
 13/02 AM  11.9/12.4   1.8/ 2.2   0.9/ 1.4    1-2      None    
 13/02 PM  13.3/13.8   3.2/ 3.7   2.2/ 2.7   7-12     Minor

Dennis - Sesuit Harbor
MLLW Categories - Minor 13.0 ft, Moderate 14.5 ft, Major 16.0 ft
MHHW Categories - Minor 2.5 ft, Moderate 4.0 ft, Major 5.5 ft

             Total      Total    Departure                   
 Day/Time    Tide       Tide     from Norm   Waves    Flood  
            ft MLLW    ft MHHW       ft       ft      Impact 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 11/12 PM  13.0/13.5   2.5/ 3.0   1.1/ 1.6     2      Minor    
 12/01 AM  12.2/12.7   1.7/ 2.2   1.0/ 1.5     1       None    
 12/01 PM  12.8/13.3   2.2/ 2.7   1.0/ 1.5     1      Minor    
 13/01 AM  12.4/12.9   1.9/ 2.3   1.0/ 1.5     1       None    
 13/02 PM  14.0/14.5   3.5/ 4.0   2.5/ 3.0    6-8     Minor

Sandwich Harbor
MLLW Categories - Minor 12.0 ft, Moderate 14.0 ft, Major 15.0 ft
MHHW Categories - Minor 1.7 ft, Moderate 3.7 ft, Major 4.7 ft

             Total      Total    Departure                   
 Day/Time    Tide       Tide     from Norm   Waves    Flood  
            ft MLLW    ft MHHW       ft       ft      Impact 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 11/12 PM  12.6/13.1   2.2/ 2.7   2.2/ 2.7    1-2     Minor    
 12/01 AM  11.9/12.4   1.6/ 2.0   2.2/ 2.7     1      Minor    
 12/01 PM  12.4/12.9   2.1/ 2.6   2.2/ 2.7     1      Minor    
 13/02 AM  11.9/12.4   1.6/ 2.0   2.2/ 2.7     1      Minor    
 13/02 PM  13.5/14.0   3.2/ 3.7   3.6/ 4.1    5-7     Minor

Wings Neck
MLLW Categories - Minor 6.5 ft, Moderate 9.0 ft, Major 11.5 ft
MHHW Categories - Minor 2.1 ft, Moderate 4.6 ft, Major 7.1 ft

             Total      Total    Departure                   
 Day/Time    Tide       Tide     from Norm   Waves    Flood  
            ft MLLW    ft MHHW       ft       ft      Impact 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 11/09 AM   5.2/ 5.7   0.9/ 1.4   0.5/ 1.0     1       None    
 11/10 PM   5.2/ 5.7   0.9/ 1.4   0.8/ 1.3     1       None    
 12/10 AM   5.2/ 5.7   0.9/ 1.4   0.7/ 1.1     1       None    
 12/11 PM   5.4/ 5.9   1.0/ 1.5   1.0/ 1.5     1       None    
 13/11 AM   5.7/ 6.2   1.3/ 1.8   1.5/ 2.0    3-4      None    
 13/11 PM   6.1/ 6.6   1.7/ 2.2   1.4/ 1.9    2-3      None

&&

$$

MAZ023-024-112200-
/O.NEW.KBOX.CF.A.0003.240213T1700Z-240213T2200Z/
Dukes MA-Nantucket MA-
356 AM EST Sun Feb 11 2024

...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Up to one foot of inundation above ground level 
  possible in low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal 
  waterways (4.3 to 5.6 feet Mean Lower Low Water).

* WHERE...Dukes MA and Nantucket MA Counties.

* WHEN...Tuesday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Roads remain passable. Low lying areas and roads 
  near Nantucket Harbor, including Easy Street, may experience 
  pockets of shallow flooding less than one foot deep. Roads 
  remain passable with pockets of shallow flooding less than one 
  foot deep. This mainly affects low lying areas and roads near 
  Edgartown Harbor, including the Chappy Ferry Dock. Shallow 
  flooding may also approach Five Corners in Vineyard Haven.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be
closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of
unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone
property.

&&

&&

Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.

Edgartown
MLLW Categories - Minor 4.0 ft, Moderate 5.0 ft, Major 7.0 ft
MHHW Categories - Minor 3.2 ft, Moderate 4.2 ft, Major 6.2 ft

             Total      Total    Departure                   
 Day/Time    Tide       Tide     from Norm   Waves    Flood  
            ft MLLW    ft MHHW       ft       ft      Impact 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 11/01 PM   3.6/ 4.1   2.7/ 3.2   1.1/ 1.6     2       None    
 12/01 AM   3.2/ 3.7   2.3/ 2.8   1.0/ 1.5     2       None    
 12/02 PM   3.5/ 4.0   2.7/ 3.2   1.1/ 1.6     1       None    
 13/02 AM   3.5/ 4.0   2.7/ 3.2   1.1/ 1.6    1-2      None    
 13/02 PM   4.5/ 5.0   3.7/ 4.2   2.2/ 2.7    6-7     Minor

Vineyard Haven
MLLW Categories - Minor 4.5 ft, Moderate 6.0 ft, Major 7.0 ft
MHHW Categories - Minor 2.5 ft, Moderate 4.0 ft, Major 5.0 ft

             Total      Total    Departure                   
 Day/Time    Tide       Tide     from Norm   Waves    Flood  
            ft MLLW    ft MHHW       ft       ft      Impact 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 11/01 PM   3.2/ 3.7   1.2/ 1.7   1.3/ 1.8    1-2      None    
 12/01 AM   3.0/ 3.5   1.0/ 1.5   1.1/ 1.6     1       None    
 12/02 PM   3.2/ 3.7   1.2/ 1.7   1.4/ 1.9     1       None    
 13/02 AM   3.2/ 3.7   1.2/ 1.7   1.3/ 1.8     1       None    
 13/02 PM   4.0/ 4.5   2.1/ 2.6   2.2/ 2.7    5-6      None

Nantucket Harbor
MLLW Categories - Minor 5.0 ft, Moderate 6.5 ft, Major 8.0 ft
MHHW Categories - Minor 1.4 ft, Moderate 2.9 ft, Major 4.4 ft

             Total      Total    Departure                   
 Day/Time    Tide       Tide     from Norm   Waves    Flood  
            ft MLLW    ft MHHW       ft       ft      Impact 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 11/01 PM   4.7/ 5.2   1.1/ 1.6   1.0/ 1.5     3       None    
 12/01 AM   4.0/ 4.5   0.5/ 1.0   0.9/ 1.4     2       None    
 12/02 PM   4.6/ 5.1   1.0/ 1.5   1.0/ 1.5     2       None    
 13/02 AM   4.4/ 4.9   0.8/ 1.3   1.0/ 1.5     2       None    
 13/03 PM   5.4/ 5.9   1.8/ 2.2   2.0/ 2.5   8-10     Minor

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1227 PM EST Sat Feb 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Warming trend continues Saturday with near record highs in the upper
50s to lower 60s, cooler south coast. A few scattered showers are
possible late Saturday afternoon & evening. Turning drier and still
mild by February standards Sunday into Monday. Increasing chances
for an impactful coastal storm Monday night into Tuesday. Still
a fair amount of uncertainty with the track and storm intensity,
which will determine precipitation types and amounts. Coastal
flooding a concern along the eastern MA coast given the high
astro tides and strong wind potential. Blustery and cold in wake
of the system.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

9 AM Update...

* Near record highs in the upper 50s and lower 60s!!
* Showers with brief downpours enters western MA after 4-5 PM

We allowed the Dense Fog Advisory to expire at 9 am. The
remaining dense fog was gradually burning off...but it will be
stubborn/slow process in the typically prone low-lying areas of
the CT River Valley. However...felt it was not worth just
extending an hour or two as it should dissipate over the next
few hours. While temps will remain in the 30s to near 40 until
the fog burns off...once this occurs readings will quickly rise.

Increasing SW pressure gradient will provide sufficient mixing
for low clouds and areas of dense fog to lift into a strato-cu
deck, providing a mix of sunshine and clouds from late morning
into the afternoon. Warm sector airmass advects across SNE with
925 mb temps warming to about +9C. SW pressure gradient combined
with ridge moving offshore, will erode subsidence inversion and
allow sufficient blyr mixing for highs to warm into the upper
50s and lower 60s away from the south coast. Thus, used the 75
percentile NBM temps to derive highs today. This will challenge
record highs today at Boston and Worcester. See details in
climate section below.

Lastly...a shortwave will be approaching our western zones by
late afternoon. Steep mid level lapse rates with a cold pool
aloft should allow an area of showers with brief downpours to
work into western MA after 4 or 5 pm. Even a low risk of thunder
in our northwest MA zones with a bit of elevated instability...but
did not feel it was worth inserting into the forecast as the
better chance will be to our west. This activity may survive
onto the coastal plain in a weakened form this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...

330 AM update...

* Brief round of showers this evening
* Cold frontal passage provides a drier airmass

Tonight...

Short wave current exiting the upper MS Valley is generating showers
with embedded thunderstorms across KY into the OH Valley early this
morning. This short wave moves across the region late this afternoon
and evening with a cluster of showers and brief downpours across
the interior and may eventually impact the coastal plain in a
weakened form. Steep mid level lapse rate accompanying this
feature may result in a few elevated -TSRA across NY state, but
thinking with deep layer moisture lacking, mid level
instability will likely not be realized. Thus, any elevated
convection should be isolated and weaken as it traverses
eastward into SNE this evening. HRRR is most robust with all
other hi res guidance indicating showers and any isolated -TSRA
decaying as it exits NYS. Cold frontal passage overnight. Not a
cold Feb post frontal airmass, with lows only in the 30s
tonight, but much drier with dew pts falling from the 40s into
the 30s.

Sunday...

A really nice day, with post frontal airmass overspreading the
region and noticeably drier with dew pts falling into the 20s.
Although, not a typical Feb airmass supporting highs in the upper
40s to lower 50s, with WNW winds 10-15 mph.  This will also be
accompanied by partial sunshine.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

330 AM update...

Highlights

* Dry and quiet weather on Mon. Temperatures trending a bit cooler,
  but still above normal for this time of year.

* Potential for significant snow Mon Night through Tue. Odds
  continue to increase, but still need to fine tune the exact track
  and intensity. These specifics will allow us to hone in on where
  any rain/snow line sets up and strong winds. Coastal flooding
  along the eastern MA coast remains a concern.

* Blustery and cold after the storm.

Sunday Night through Monday...

Stuck under cyclonic flow through this timeframe. A ridge will
initially extend from the Mid Mississippi River Valley into the TN
Valley Sun Night. The ridge builds into the OH Valley by early Mon
and flattens out later in the day as our next system digs into the
TN Valley. A weak high nudges into our region through this timeframe.

Dry and quiet weather expected through this period. Actually looks
like Mon will turn out to be quite a nice day as guidance is
trending a bit slower with our next impactful system. At this point
think we will be sunny for much of the day, but during the mid to
late afternoon will have increasing mid to high clouds. At 925 hPa
will have temps of roughly +/- 2 degrees Celsius. Given the sun
angle for this time of year should see temps topping out in the 40s.
This is roughly 5-10 degrees warmer than typical for this time of
year.

Monday Night through Tuesday...

Our next opportunity for widespread impactful weather across
southern New England. A near neutrally tilted trough will initially
be over the TN Valley Mon evening. The trough digs into Mid
Atlantic/eastern Great Lakes by early Tue and becomes slightly
negatively tilted. The trough continues to dig as it lifts through
southern New England on Tue. Low pressure slides across the TN
Valley into the Mid Atlantic Mon Night into early Tue. A secondary
low develops off the coast of the Mid Atlantic early on Tue and
lifts northeastward nearby southern New England on Tue. The low
continues to lift northeastward toward Nova Scotia by late in the
day.

Models are in much better agreement today than 24 hrs ago and really
clustering toward a track around the benchmark. With this in mind
probabilities of a significant snowstorm are increasing. There is
still enough spread in the track and intensity of the secondary low
that a few different scenarios are possible. Really does not appear
at this point that there is much interaction with a northern stream
shortwave, but the GFS/ECMWF/UKMET are a bit quicker with the wave
moving in. This helps kind of double down on the height falls over
our areas with the southern stream wave and a more impactful system
for our area. The GEM shows a slower shortwave and still some
impacts, but a storm further to the southeast of the benchmark.

Given the spread am still focusing heavily toward ensemble
probabilities. The GEFS/EPS are fairly similar with moderate to high
(50-90+ percent) probs of total QPF AOA 0.5 inches from roughly the
MA Turnpike southeastward. These probs fall off somewhat quickly as
you go northwestward to the low-mod category (10-40 percent). The
GEPS is similar to its operational model and more muted with these
probs of 10-50 percent across our region. Even have some low probs
(10-40 percent) of QPF AOA 1 inch, with the highest values over the
south coast. These probs continue to increase from run to run. This
is also the case for snowfall totals with mod to high probs (50-80+
percent) of 3+ inches of snow per the EPS/GEFS, but still more muted
for the GEPS in the low to mod category for our region. Still
highlighting the south coast for the highest risk. As prev shift
indicated there is not a whole lot of antecedent cold air available.
Can clearly see this via the 2m temp probs less than 32 degrees F
per the ensembles. Where our highest QPF potential is also where the
probability gradient exists, so ptypes will be an issue. This can be
overcome with heavier precip and an intensifying system, but these
details need to be honed in on. Still difficult to discern at this
point so stay tuned as additional model shifts are anticipated.

Given there is still uncertainty on the intensity/track of the low
sliding through we are also somewhat uncertain on the exact extent
of the strong winds. Overall NAEFS/EPS situational awareness tables
are quite meh. Though they do indicate 1.5-2 STD above model climo,
this is all for winds at 200 hPa. Right now could perhaps see a 20-
40+ kt northeasterly jet. Would result in gusty winds, but nothing
crazy for Feb. This on top of how rapidly our system deepens will
also impact the exact coastal flooding risk for eastern MA, which
will be discussed further in the coastal flooding section below.

Tuesday Night through Friday...

Blustery and colder mid to late in the week. Didn't put a whole lot
of emphasis on this period given the focus on the Mon Night into Tue
system. Generally looking dry and quiet, but could see a shortwave
sliding through in the Thu-Fri timeframe. This could bring some
spotty showers, but considerable differences at this point.
Temperatures trending near to below seasonable levels.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Forecast Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

18z TAF Update...

This afternoon & tonight...High Confidence.

VFR conditions prevail tonight. However...a brief round of
showers with localized downpours will move into western MA after
21z-22z which may result in very brief/localized lower
cigs/vsbys. There is even the low risk for a rumble of thunder.
This activity should weaken as it move east...but may survive
in a weakened form onto the I-95 corridor in the 00z to 02z time
frame. That remains to be seen, but should be very short-lived
either way. SW winds 5 to 10 knots shift to the W tonight.

Sunday & Sunday night...High Confidence.

VFR. WNW winds 5 to 15 knots.

KBOS TAF...High Confidence.

KBDL TAF...High Confidence.

Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...

Monday: VFR.

Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with
local gusts up to 30 kt. Chance RA, chance SN.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Strong winds with
gusts up to 45 kt. Chance SN.

Tuesday Night: VFR. Strong winds with local gusts up to 40 kt.
Slight chance SN.

Wednesday: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

330 AM update...

Today...low clouds and areas of dense fog this morning will give way
to improving vsbys and dry weather today. Light SSW winds this
morning become SW and increase 10-15 kt this afternoon.

Tonight...a few showers possible in the evening. Otherwise, cold
front sweeps across the waters in the evening with a wind shift from
SW to WNW.

Sunday...dry weather and vsby to the horizon in response WNW post
frontal winds, 10-15 kt.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Thursday/...

Sunday Night through Monday: Winds less than 25 kt.

Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain.

Tuesday: Moderate risk for gale force winds with areas of gusts
up to 45 kt. Areas of rough seas. Rain, chance of snow.

Tuesday Night: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
45 kt. Rough seas up to 13 ft. Slight chance of snow.

Wednesday: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
35 kt. Areas of rough seas.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
330 AM update...

* Daytime high tides close to flood stage through the weekend
* Minor to low end moderate coastal flooding possible Tuesday

Residual surge of 1.0 to 1.5 feet will bring daytime high tides
close to flood stage as we head into the weekend, especially
Saturday and Sunday when we have the highest astro tides (mainly
along E MA coast - 11.5 ft Sat and 11.6 ft MLLW Sun at Boston). Any
inundation would be very minor and confined to the most vulnerable
low lying shoreline roads/parking lots.

Regarding the potential coastal storm early next week, we are most
concerned with the Tue afternoon high tide along the eastern MA
coast. A surge 1.5 ft to 2.5 ft combined with high astronomical
tides and building seas will bring the potential for widespread
minor to low end moderate coastal flooding, along with at least some
erosion given elevated water levels and wave action. More
significant beach erosion is also a concern, especially around Plum
Island given erosion from previous storms this winter. There is
still some uncertainty with the timing of strongest winds and peak
surge, which will have an impact on water levels. If the peak surge
does not coincide with high tide, waters levels will be less.

We are not expecting much impact along the south coast as an
offshore low track will lead to N-NE winds which will limit storm
surge here.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record Daily High Temperatures for Saturday February 10th...

BOS 60 in 1990 and 2023
BDL 62 in 2023
PVD 64 in 2023
ORH 56 in 2023

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for ANZ250-254-255.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Nocera/BL
NEAR TERM...Frank/Nocera
SHORT TERM...Nocera
LONG TERM...BL
AVIATION...Frank/BL
MARINE...Nocera/BL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...Nocera
CLIMATE...BL