Severe Thunderstorm Warning 33, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
631 PM MDT Tue May 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered storms mainly over the Front Range and Palmer Divide
  continue until early evening. Storms may produce small hail and
  wind gusts up to 45 mph.

- Higher afternoon thunderstorm potential on Wednesday, when a few
  severe storms will be possible, mainly for the rural plains.

- Slightly cooler Thursday behind a cold front, with isolated to
  scattered afternoon showers/storms each day through at least
  Saturday.

- Drier/warmer conditions favored as we near early next week, but
  details become more murky Sunday onwards.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Through Wednesday/...
Issued at 251 PM MDT Tue May 28 2024

Currently, a few showers and storms hover along the southern
foothills and Palmer Divide which can be seen on reflectivity.
Southwest flow aloft remains weak on ACARS soundings. Storms
continue to pulse up and quickly end; this pattern will likely
continue given the marginal amount of instability and shear this
evening. A robust storm or two could produce small hail but
majority of showers and storms should remain non-severe. Models
and soundings indicate large DCAPE values near 1000-1200 J/kg
which could lead to storms producing wind gusts up to 45 mph
through tonight. Low temperatures increase for the lower
elevations sitting a few degrees above normal; normal low
temperatures are expected for the high country. Southwesterly
flow increases aloft as the next shortwave trough arrives to
northeast Colorado early Wednesday morning.

Diurnal thunderstorms and showers are possible once more
Wednesday afternoon across the region. CAMs favor a dryline
initializing slightly east of the I-25 corridor. This set-up
combined with the favorable conditions, bulk shear 30-35kts and
MU CAPE between 700- 1000 J/kg, could lead to a few severe storms
along the eastern plains starting late Wednesday afternoon through
late Wednesday evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Tuesday/...
Issued at 251 PM MDT Tue May 28 2024

Thunderstorms will continue to progress eastward across the
plains Wednesday evening and be east of the area by midnight. Then
a cold front will move south across the area towards sunrise
Thursday morning. High temperatures will be cooler Thursday with
readings in to the upper 70s to around 80F over northeast
Colorado. Moisture decreases as well for Thursday behind the
front. In addition to less moisture and instability, soundings
show the airmass will be capped as well. Better moisture and
instability will reside over southeast Colorado where scattered
thunderstorms are expected. The northern extent for showers and
storms Thursday looks to be around or slightly south of I-70.
However, the GFS shows it will be a little warmer than the other
models show, with showers and storms overcoming any capping. Thus,
will keep a slight chance for showers and storms over the
northern parts of the area just in case the GFS is on to
something.

For Friday and the weekend, west to southwest flow aloft will
prevail. Temperatures will slowly climb each day reaching the
upper 80s by Sunday. Better instability and moisture are expected
to be in place Friday for a round of scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Models are hinting at a short wave trough moving
across Colorado on Saturday. Expect an increase in showers and
thunderstorms if this holds true. However, with this system
several days away, timing and track of this wave will likely
change. Models generally agree Sunday will be drier with
subsidence and drying behind the trough.

Upper level ridging begins to build over the Central and Southern
Rockies early next week. This is expected to bring warm and dry
conditions for Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday/...
Issued at 631 PM MDT Tue May 28 2024

For the next hour or two, there is a chance for a few
showers/storms in the vicinity of the terminals. This may bring
brief variable gusts up to 30 kts with any nearby storms.

Tonight, winds at southerly drainage at 08-14 kts. Confidence in
the winds decreases for Wednesday. This is because of the
uncertainty in how the Denver cyclone sets up toward the
afternoon. Winds may end up more easterly at DEN toward the
afternoon as a result and light northerly at BJC. There is a low
chance for scattered thunderstorm in the afternoon (< 30%). There
will likely be some shower/storm activity around the terminals (at
least DEN). This will bring the usual threat of brief variable
gusts 25-35 kts with convective showers/storms.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SHORT TERM...AD
LONG TERM...Meier
AVIATION...Mensch

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1010 AM MDT Tue May 28 2024

COZ030>051-291615-
Jackson County Below 9000 Feet-
West Jackson and West Grand Counties Above 9000 Feet-
Grand and Summit Counties Below 9000 Feet-
South and East Jackson/Larimer/North and Northeast Grand/
Northwest Boulder Counties Above 9000 Feet-
South and Southeast Grand/West Central and Southwest Boulder/
Gilpin/Clear Creek/Summit/North and West Park Counties Above
9000 Feet-Larimer and Boulder Counties Between 6000 and 9000 Feet-
Jefferson and West Douglas Counties Above 6000 Feet/Gilpin/Clear
Creek/Northeast Park Counties Below 9000 Feet-
Central and Southeast Park County-
Larimer County Below 6000 Feet/Northwest Weld County-
Boulder And Jefferson Counties Below 6000 Feet/West Broomfield
County-
North Douglas County Below 6000 Feet/Denver/West Adams and
Arapahoe Counties/East Broomfield County-
Elbert/Central and East Douglas Counties Above 6000 Feet-
Northeast Weld County-Central and South Weld County-Morgan County-
Central and East Adams and Arapahoe Counties-
North and Northeast Elbert County Below 6000 Feet/North Lincoln
County-
Southeast Elbert County Below 6000 Feet/South Lincoln County-
Logan County-Washington County-Sedgwick County-Phillips County-
1010 AM MDT Tue May 28 2024

This hazardous weather outlook is for northeast and north central
Colorado.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms and showers are favored to develop late
afternoon mainly along the southern foothills, Palmer Divide, and
Lincoln county through tonight. These storms may produce small hail,
and wind gusts up to 40 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Afternoon and evening thunderstorms are expected Wednesday, some
of which may be severe with mostly a hail and wind threat for the
rural plains. There will be a lesser severe threat but continued
isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms
Thursday into Friday, with a gradually drier pattern thereafter.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today or tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Denver CO
642 PM MDT Tue May 28 2024

COZ038-290115-
Larimer County Below 6000 Feet/Northwest Weld County CO-
642 PM MDT Tue May 28 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN WELD COUNTY THROUGH
715 PM MDT...

At 642 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Rockport, or 14 miles south of Cheyenne, moving southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Carr and Rockport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4092 10447 4071 10469 4091 10494 4100 10485
      4100 10468
TIME...MOT...LOC 0042Z 307DEG 13KT 4094 10480

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

HIRIS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Denver CO
718 PM MDT Tue May 28 2024

COZ038-290145-
Larimer County Below 6000 Feet/Northwest Weld County CO-
718 PM MDT Tue May 28 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN WELD COUNTY THROUGH
745 PM MDT...

At 718 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southeast of Rockport, or 21 miles south of Cheyenne, moving
southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Purcell.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4085 10480 4094 10469 4083 10437 4063 10461
TIME...MOT...LOC 0118Z 307DEG 13KT 4085 10468

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

HIRIS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Denver CO
720 PM MDT Tue May 28 2024

COZ045-049-290145-
Washington County CO-Central and East Adams and Arapahoe Counties CO-
720 PM MDT Tue May 28 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN ARAPAHOE...
SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON AND EASTERN ADAMS COUNTIES THROUGH 745 PM
MDT...

At 720 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms near Last Chance, or 34 miles north of Limon, moving
northwest at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Woodlin School, Last Chance, and Shamrock.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3976 10395 3997 10389 3983 10343 3962 10358
TIME...MOT...LOC 0120Z 122DEG 7KT 3976 10366

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

HIRIS

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