Severe Thunderstorm Warning 45, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
841 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 817 PM CDT THU MAY 9 2024

Thunderstorms started developing along the outflows left from the
thunderstorms early this morning and last night. With the flow
nearly unidirectional, you would think that the storms would move
eastward. In general they are, but there is a vast pool of
instability south and west of these boundaries. SBCAPE was still
3000-5000j/kg, with shear values at 50kts. Believe a few things
will happen overnight. The storms will progress eastward as the
stable surface layer is eroded. The storms will also tend to drift
southward toward the instability as it feeds on the fuel. These
storms will be capable of producing damaging winds, large hail and
possibly a tornado. At this time, it appears the watch area looks
good with only the far north and northeast counties not in it.
Will monitor eastern locations if some instability can work back
in. There still is an impulse moving out of Texas that will ride
overhead overnight. This feature will kick off additional showers
and storms, but the atmosphere should be turned over in most
locations by then. We will monitor the southwest counties for any
remaining instability after midnight.

Moisture values remain quite high over Central Alabama. Since
these thunderstorms are moving rather slowly and have high fuel
to work with, torrential rain will be expected under the storms.
Some locations will pick up a quick 2 to 4 inches. Some flooding
may occur. The storms will eventually move south and east of the
area Friday afternoon.

75

Previous short-term discussion:
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 133 PM CDT THU MAY 9 2024

Key Messages:
- Some showers and thunderstorms may develop later this afternoon,
  any storms that do develop may become severe with a wind and
  hail risk.
- Clusters of thunderstorms currently developing across East Texas
  will move east this afternoon and tonight, pushing into the area
  with greatest potential across our south-central counties.
  Damaging straight-line winds will be the primary concern, though
  risks for hail and a tornado or two will be possible with this
  activity this evening through early Friday morning.

Tonight.

Shortwave ridging currently over East-Central Mississippi will
move east of the area by this evening as a disturbance aloft moves
east toward the area. This feature is supporting the development
of thunderstorm clusters across portions of Eastern Texas that
will be in an environment supportive of upscale growth through
time that may result in another MCS that will move east generally
along the Interstate 20 corridor toward the area. Expect any
storms that developed in the afternoon to continue moving east
across the area ahead of the potential MCS, followed by the
potential MCS late tonight through the early morning hours on
Friday. Damaging straight-line winds will be the primary risk,
though there will be a chance for some hail and a tornado or two
if boundary interactions/cell mergers occur. Some patchy fog may
develop before sunrise, especially in areas that received heavy
rainfall today and tonight, though development will still be
conditional based upon lighter winds and decreasing clouds. Winds
outside of storms will be from the west at 4-8 mph. Low
temperatures will be cooler, ranging from around 60 far northwest
to the mid 60s south and central.

Friday.

A longwave trough will swing southeast over the Ohio and
Tennessee Valley Regions during the day on Friday while broad low-
amplitude ridging builds over the Southern Plains. Expect chances
for lingering showers and storms to become increasingly confined
to the southeastern counties through the morning with dry
conditions returning areawide by mid afternoon. Look for
decreasing clouds through the day with winds becoming northwest at
6-12 mph. High temperatures will range from the mid 70s far
northwest to the mid 80s southeast.

05

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 243 PM CDT THU MAY 9 2024

A nice respite from the heat and humidity over the weekend. My
see a few temperatures down into the upper 40s across the
northeast counties Saturday morning, with low to mid 50s
elsewhere. An active weather pattern setting up next week with
several southern stream impulses moving along the Gulf Coast
region. The first impulse will bring showers into Alabama on
Monday. Instability will increase late Monday night and into
Tuesday as the low level flow becomes southerly and surface
dewpoints rise into the 60s. There could be enough instability and
shear for locally strong storms, especially on Tuesday.

58/rose

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 817 PM CDT THU MAY 9 2024

Thunderstorms will affect the northern terminals through 04z at
least. The storms will drift south and east with time.
Additionally, more showers and storms are possible between 06-12z.
The front eventually moves all the precipitation out the area by
18z or so on Friday. Expect windy conditions, low ceilings, and
very heavy rain under the storms. Ceilings should bounce around
between flight categories all night, but MVFR ceilings should be
predominate just before 12z and last through 15-17z. Thereafter,
VFR conditions are anticipated with clearing skies. Winds will
variable near storms, southerly south of the storms 5-10kts. By
15-18z, winds will swing around to the north and northwest around
10kts with a few gusts to around 20kts possible.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms expected overnight, mainly
along and south of I-20. Rainfall heavy at times. The rain should
be exiting east Alabama by sunrise Friday. A cold front will pass
through Alabama on Friday, ushering in much drier and cooler air.
Min RH values on Friday 40-50 percent. No wetting rain expected
over the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     63  79  49  77 /  40  20   0   0
Anniston    64  80  51  77 /  50  30   0   0
Birmingham  64  80  54  78 /  60  20   0   0
Tuscaloosa  66  82  54  80 /  70  20   0   0
Calera      64  80  54  78 /  70  30   0   0
Auburn      64  81  56  77 /  70  50   0   0
Montgomery  65  84  55  79 /  70  50   0   0
Troy        66  83  56  79 /  80  70   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...75
LONG TERM....58/rose
AVIATION...75

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
344 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

ALZ011>015-017>050-101145-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
344 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Outlook through Tonight.

Multiple rounds of showers and storms will move through Central
Alabama. The first will move through this morning into the afternoon.
The second round will move through tonight into the overnight hours
ahead of a cold front. Severe storms will be possible with threats
including damaging winds up to 60 mph, large hail, and a tornado or
two.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management may be needed
through early Friday morning.

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