Severe Thunderstorm Warning 112, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
410 PM CDT Fri Aug 2 2024

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...
Issued at 404 PM CDT FRI AUG 2 2024

A cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms recently impacted
areas from Gadsden to Anniston to Talladega causing several areas
of reported wind damage. This cluster has since weakened and
collapsed into downstream drier air.

Meanwhile, an area of high instability is situated west of I-65
and north of I-20 where mesoanalysis depicts upwards of 6,000
J/kg SBCAPE. Here, DCAPE values range 1,000-1,300 J/kg with 20-30
kts eff. bulk shear. Several storms have now formed along existing
mesoscale boundaries and are moving southeast toward the I-20
corridor. These storms will be strong to severe with damaging wind
gusts our main concern. Activity will continue over the next few
hours and we appreciate any storm reports.

40/Sizemore

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 132 PM CDT FRI AUG 2 2024

This afternoon.

A northwest flow pattern was evident over the forecast area this
afternoon with a closed low over Indiana and very strong broad
ridging centered over the Four Corners states out west. A surface
front extended from Western Ohio that extended southwest across
West Tennessee and further west into Oklahoma while an outflow
boundary from activity last night was moving southeast across our
northern counties at this time. Strong low-level buoyancy along
with some pockets of drier air aloft are contributing to an
isolated damaging wind threat with the heavier activity this
afternoon and evening with a marginal risk for severe storms
outlooked for areas generally near and north of the Interstate 59
corridor.

Expect showers and thunderstorms to continue to move southeast
around 30 mph, affecting areas north of Interstate 20 through 3 pm
then portions of our east-central counties through 6 pm. There has
been less activity generally west of Interstate 65 along this
outflow boundary but more showers and storms may eventually fill
in as it progresses further to the south and east with time.
Additionally, some showers and storms may develop along the actual
surface front that will move southeast into the northwest portion
of the area toward 3 pm. While a few isolated showers and storms
may develop to the south of the outflow boundary, these chances
are lower with partly cloudy skies and hot conditions expected. A
heat advisory remains in effect this afternoon for most of our
west and central counties as the combination of high temperatures
from the low 90s in the higher elevations east to the upper 90s
south and west will create heat index values near or over 105
degrees through the afternoon, at least until showers and storms
develop and reduce the air temperature values. Winds will be from
the west at 5-10 mph.

Tonight.

The closed low aloft to our north opens into a wave over Ohio
overnight while broad and expansive mid-level ridging persists
over much of the Intermountain West. The outflow boundary is
expected to be approaching our southeast counties toward sunset
while the surface front moves into our northwest counties by early
evening.

Chances for showers and thunderstorms will be greatest across the
central portions of the area, generally along and ahead of the
surface front and near and behind the outflow boundary. Activity
is expected to decrease with time overnight as the boundary layer
gradually cools and stabilizes more with time, but some showers
and a few storms may persist overnight. With decreasing instability
values, strong to severe storm potential will diminish by late
evening. Winds will be from the west ahead of the surface front
and northwest behind the surface front with speeds from 2-4 mph.
Low temperatures will range from the upper 60s far northwest and
in the higher elevations east to the mid 70s south and southwest.

Saturday.

Troughing in the mid levels will persist over the Eastern Ohio
River Valley Region and will extend southward to over the Southern
Appalachians while robust ridging will persist over the
Intermountain West. The outflow boundary will be along the Gulf
Coast by early afternoon with the surface front roughly
positioned along the Interstate 20 corridor at that time.

Mostly sunny skies with dry conditions are forecast for most areas
generally northwest of the Interstate 59 corridor while chances
for showers and thunderstorms will increase southeastward while
the best chances for activity will be across our counties that are
southeast of the Interstate 85 corridor. Winds will remain from
the west ahead of the surface front with winds from the northwest
behind the front as speeds will range from 4-8 mph. High
temperatures will range from near 90 across the far north and
higher elevations northeast to readings in the mid 90s across much
of the south and southwest. A heat advisory may be needed across
the far southern tier of the area as dew points will remain higher
to the south of the surface front, contributing to heat indices in
the 102-105 range generally near and south of the U.S. Highway 80
corridor.

05

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT FRI AUG 2 2024

Only change in model trends this afternoon was to account for a
slightly more eastward track of the tropical wave in the Gulf.
This leads to lower rain chances across Central Alabama early next
week, and continued heat. Drier air advecting around the west side
of the system should keep heat indices in check. Although with
temperatures in the low to upper 90s each day, heat indices will
be in the 100-105F range.

14

Previous long-term discussion:
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 351 AM CDT FRI AUG 2 2024

A stationary front located across South Alabama will provide a
focus for any isolated lingering convection Saturday night across
our southeastern counties. PWAT values to the north of the front
are expected to drop to 1.2 to 1.5 inches with a gradient from
northwest to southeast that will persist into Sunday. Once again,
scattered convection should be focused in our eastern/southeastern
counties on Sunday. Depending on the track of a potential
tropical system affecting Florida, Sunday could be drier than our
current forecast indicates as we remain on the dry side of this
system. This applies to our forecast for Monday as well.

As the potential tropical system shifts eastward on Tuesday,
prospects for rain will diminish as an upper-level ridge builds in
from the west. This will also lead to a warming trend marked by
hot continental flow from the west and northwest. In most areas
temperatures will reach at least the mid 90s on Tuesday with some
pockets of upper 90s. Currently Wednesday appears to the hottest
day of the upcoming week, with more widespread upper 90s. Not much
change is expected for Thursday. During this hot stretch, PWAT
values around 1.5 inches suggest the potential for drier air
mixing to the surface, which would keep heat indices from getting
completely out of hand.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT FRI AUG 2 2024

An outflow boundary ahead of a surface front is moving southeast
into Central Alabama at this time. A line of showers and
thunderstorms will move southeast along this boundary with the
heavier activity currently near and east of Interstate 65 with the
northern sites potentially affected between 18z-19z. Further
activity may develop behind this line as the actual surface front
approaches the area from the northwest later this afternoon and
into the evening. MGM will remain VFR for this afternoon with
activity potentially approaching that area after 00z. Showers with
a few lingering storms would be best near MGM overnight and
across the far southeast followed by at least isolated showers
with some thunderstorms across the southeast third of the area on
Saturday.

05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible this evening and
again on Saturday, mainly near and south of the I-59 corridor, as
frontal boundaries provide a focus for convection. Isolated to
scattered showers/storms remain in the forecast through Tuesday
across the southeast. Min RHs will be above critical values
through at least early next week. 20 ft winds will become
westerly to northwesterly Saturday and northeasterly on Sunday,
at less then 7 mph.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     70  90  69  92 /  30  20   0  10
Anniston    71  90  71  92 /  30  20  10  20
Birmingham  73  91  72  92 /  40  10   0  10
Tuscaloosa  74  93  73  95 /  40   0   0  10
Calera      73  92  73  94 /  50  10   0  10
Auburn      74  92  74  92 /  30  30  20  40
Montgomery  74  95  73  94 /  30  20  20  30
Troy        75  94  72  93 /  20  40  30  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for the following
counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock-Chilton-Coosa-
Dallas-Elmore-Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lee-Lowndes-
Macon-Marengo-Marion-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Pike-Russell-
Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-Walker-
Winston.

Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Saturday for the following
counties: Barbour-Bullock-Dallas-Lowndes-Marengo-Montgomery-Pike.

&&

SHORT TERM...40/Sizemore
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...05

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
236 AM CDT Fri Aug 2 2024

ALZ011>015-017>050-031045-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
236 AM CDT Fri Aug 2 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Outlook through Tonight.

A few marginally severe storms will be possible across the northern
half of Central Alabama from 2 PM through 10 PM. The main concern
will be strong damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management may be needed
from this afternoon to this evening.

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