Freeze Warning 3, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
Issued by National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1123 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 345 AM CST THU NOV 21 2024

Key Message:

- Potential for a light freeze and patchy frost Friday morning.

A pressure gradient will maintain cool and dry northwest flow across
the region in the short term. Wind gusts upwards of 30 mph are
expected today and upwards of 25 mph on Friday. The main forecast
item is the cold weather Friday morning and the potential for a
frost/freeze. A cold advection regime should maintain winds between
5-10 mph Thursday night/Friday morning. Sheltered could trend a tad
lighter. This will be a key factor in regards to mixing and its
implications on radiational cooling as well as frost formation. For
example, Thursday night, the temperature at Gadsden dropped to 34F
and then quickly rose 10 degrees once the breeze kicked back in. NBM
probabilities show the best potential for (briefly) reaching the
freezing mark to be across the northern-tier counties. That could be
offset by the wind. And, a breeze would also tend to keep frost from
being widespread. We'll revisit this in a few hours in regards to
frost/freeze alerts.

89^GSatterwhite

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 345 AM CST THU NOV 21 2024

Key Message:

- A widespread frost/freeze is expected Saturday morning that will
  likely end the growing season in many locations.

Following a breezy and chilly day on Friday, the surface ridge is
expected to build into the Deep South by Friday night and
Saturday morning. Under mostly clear skies and light winds with
the ridge overhead, ideal radiational cooling will drop
temperatures down into the upper 20s to lower 30s in many
locations. Widespread frost is also expected, and therefore frost
& freeze products will be needed. The growing season will come to
an end across a vast majority of Central Alabama as a result.
Another frost will be likely once again on Sunday morning, but
otherwise we'll see moderating temperatures through the weekend.
High temperatures will warm significantly by Monday and Tuesday as
warm air advection kicks in and a zonal flow pattern aloft sets
up over much of the CONUS. Global guidance then begins to diverge
after Tuesday of next week as the next system approaches from the
west by Thanksgiving. With the uncertainties, I've kept the
persistence forecast in place in terms of PoPs through Wednesday,
while forecast temperatures remain above NBM guidance and closer
to an operational model blend.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1120 AM CST THU NOV 21 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Wind direction will
be out of the northwest, with gusts up to 25-30 mph through
Thursday evening. Wind speeds will lower during the late evening and
overnight period, as wind shear conditions set up across the
forecast area.

71

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Rain-free weather is expected over the next few days with dry
northwest flow. Today will be on the breezy side with gusts upwards
of 30 mph, upwards of 25 mph on Friday, and finally much lighter on
Saturday. Afternoon minimum RHs are forecast to be in the upper 20s
to lower 30s today, and the 40-percent range on Friday and Saturday
(perhaps isolated upper 30s). Overnight recovery should include RHs
in the 70 and 80 percent range Thursday night and at or near 100%
Friday and Saturday nights.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     56  33  51  31 /   0   0   0   0
Anniston    56  34  51  34 /   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  55  35  51  33 /   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  57  36  53  34 /   0   0   0   0
Calera      57  36  53  36 /   0   0   0   0
Auburn      57  37  52  36 /   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  60  36  55  34 /   0   0   0   0
Troy        60  37  54  35 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...89^GSatterwhite
LONG TERM....56
AVIATION...71

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
342 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

ALZ011>015-017>050-221245-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
342 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Outlook through Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management is not
expected at this time.