Flash Flood Warning 16, NWS Birmingham, AL

963 
WGUS74 KBMX 140122
FFSBMX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
822 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024

ALC009-073-140132-
/O.EXP.KBMX.FF.W.0016.000000T0000Z-240914T0130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Blount AL-Jefferson AL-
822 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 830 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR 
SOUTHWESTERN BLOUNT AND NORTH CENTRAL JEFFERSON COUNTIES...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

A Flood Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT Saturday for a 
portion of central Alabama.

&&

LAT...LON 3387 8692 3390 8693 3391 8692 3395 8684
      3394 8682 3396 8682 3395 8679 3397 8678
      3397 8675 3392 8673 3387 8675 3380 8681
      3371 8695 3370 8704 3379 8701 3379 8697
      3380 8697 3380 8695 3385 8696 3387 8695

$$

89^GSatterwhite

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
404 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 155 PM CDT FRI SEP 13 2024

Key Messages:

-Isolated tornado threat will continue through the afternoon and
 evening hours with just enough shear and instability to work with

-Flash flood threat will increase tonight through the day on
 Saturday, as the remnants of Francine will move southeastward.
 Concerns are increasing in terms of the setup for flash flooding
 roughly from Hamilton southeastward to Birmingham and Montgomery
 and all points eastward. A Flood Watch is in effect through 7pm
 Saturday evening.

The remnants of Francine are currently located over Central
Arkansas, with a stationary boundary/wind shift stretching
southeastward down into western Alabama. Along and east of this
boundary, showers and a few storms have developed with some of
those exhibiting signs of rotation. We've had some additional
instability due to solar heating early this afternoon, thanks to
Central Alabama being within the dry slot aloft. The dry slot is
clearly evident on the KBMX RAOB this morning and water vapor
imagery. With the additional instability and available shear,
we'll have to keep a close eye on the radar for the potential of
isolated tornadoes that could form very quickly within this
tropical environment. Highs have been trended upward due to the
additional sunshine, which will top out in the low to mid 80s
along and west of I-65 and along the US 80 corridor.

Meanwhile, across the far east and northeast counties the
easterly wedge is in full force, with widespread stratus clouds
persisting due to isentropic upglide. Highs should remain in the
70s in these locations. That easterly wedge will become a
problem as we go into the overnight hours tonight through the day
on Saturday as the remnant low of Francine approaches from the
northwest. We'll see a favorable setup for flash flooding begin
to materialize with a zone of convergence at the surface setting
up from the remnant surface low and the wedge coming in from the
east. 850mb winds from the southeast are expected to ramp up to 40
knots or greater in a zone from roughly Cullman to Alex City to
Auburn. WPC currently has a Moderate Risk for flash flooding
within that similar area, which is in good agreement with the
environmental setup. With plenty of synoptic lift at 500mb and
westerly flow aloft, concern for flash flooding overnight through
Saturday morning is greatly increasing. As a result, the Flood
Watch has been extended until 7pm Saturday evening. Interests
should monitor the latest conditions while traveling during the
overnight and early morning hours, as overnight flooding can be
especially dangerous. We'll continue to monitor mesoscale trends
this evening and through the overnight.

Widespread showers and storms are expected to continue for the
northeastern half of Central Alabama through the day on Saturday.
Flash flood concerns will continue as the remnant low becomes
nearly stationary over Central Mississippi. Highs should remain in
the mid to upper 70s north to the lower 80s south due to the
widespread clouds and rain.

56/GDG

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT FRI SEP 13 2024

The low pressure axis from Francine is expected to shift SWD for
the beginning of next week. Until then, rain chances will
continue to be high across C AL. At the same time in the upper
levels, the leftover associated low will slowly weaken as well.
Rain chances become more diurnal in nature toward mid week with
decreasing overall chances. Daytime highs will be on the cooler
side for the beginning of the extended Sun/Mon with warmer highs
toward the latter part as rain chances go down. On the flip side
with less cloud cover and lower overnight rain chances toward mid
week, our overnight cooling will be better, thus look for larger
diurnal ranges.

08

Previous long-term discussion:
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT FRI SEP 13 2024

The remnant low pressure from Francine will linger across the
southeastern CONUS through at least Sunday into Monday. This will
lead to a persistent axis of increased rain/thunderstorm chances
across Central AL.

Indications are that by Tuesday of next week, the broad/weak
troughing in the Eastern US will shift slightly eastwards as ridging
builds in across the MS Valley to our west. This should allow for a
decreasing rain chances Tuesday through Thursday.

Temperatures will remain on the milder side over the weekend due to
the persistent cloud cover and rainfall. Clearing skies by the
middle part of next week will lead to a slight warming trend
Wednesday into Thursday with highs reaching back into the mid to
upper 80s.

25/Owen

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 155 PM CDT FRI SEP 13 2024

Key Message:

-Aviation conditions are expected to deteriorate overnight due to
 widespread showers and embedded storms, along with IFR to
 possibly LIFR ceilings between 06z and 12z Saturday morning.

MVFR to VFR stratus conditions are currently present for all
terminals with SHRA development becoming more widespread through
the afternoon and evening hours today. Some TSRA development is
possible this afternoon, and went with a TEMPO TSRA group during
the short-term. For the most part, primarily SHRA development is
expected, with embedded TS as we go through the evening and
overnight hours tonight. Widespread SHRA activity should impact
BHM, EET, and ASN tonight through Saturday morning, and some of
that activity could be on the heavy side. For now, have limited
visibilities for those terminals and also lowered ceilings to MVFR
and then IFR between 06z and 12z Saturday morning. PROB30 for TSRA
will also remain in the forecast along with the lower ceilings,
due to embedded TS in the overall widespread shower activity.
Prevailing winds today will be out of the southeast at the
surface around 10 knots with a few gusts over 15 knots. Winds
will become light overnight and prevail from the east on Saturday,
below 10 knots.

56/GDG

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

High rain chances will continue across the area now through
Monday. Rain chances become more diurnal in nature toward the
middle of next week. Gusty winds this afternoon will begin to
slowly taper down tonight across Central Alabama.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     70  76  64  76 /  90  90  80  70
Anniston    70  77  67  78 /  90  90  80  70
Birmingham  71  77  67  76 /  90  90  80  80
Tuscaloosa  71  80  68  79 /  60  80  40  80
Calera      70  78  68  79 /  90  80  80  80
Auburn      70  77  68  79 /  90  80  80  70
Montgomery  72  83  68  80 /  80  60  60  80
Troy        71  82  67  79 /  70  50  60  80

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Saturday evening for the following counties:
Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock-Calhoun-Chambers-Cherokee-
Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Elmore-Etowah-Fayette-Jefferson-
Lamar-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Marion-Montgomery-Pike-Randolph-Russell-
Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.

&&

SHORT TERM...56/GDG
LONG TERM....08/25/Owen
AVIATION...56/GDG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
455 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024

ALZ011>015-017>050-141300-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
455 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Outlook through Tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms are forecast across Central Alabama today,
posing continued threats for locally heavy rainfall and flooding, as
well as isolated damaging wind gusts and tornadoes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management may be needed
today.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
350 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg Ensley                  33.51N 86.89W
09/12/2024                   Jefferson          AL   Emergency Mngr

            Tree down reports at various locations
            across Jefferson County due to wind gusts
            from Francine during the morning and
            afternoon.

&&

GMS