Wind Advisory 4, NWS Bismarck, ND

527 
WWUS73 KBIS 030830
NPWBIS

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
230 AM CST Sun Mar 3 2024

NDZ040-041-043-044-031500-
/O.EXA.KBIS.FG.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-240303T1200Z/
/O.CON.KBIS.WI.Y.0004.240303T1500Z-240304T0300Z/
Slope-Hettinger-Bowman-Adams-
Including the cities of Mott, Bowman, Hettinger, Marmarth, and
New England
130 AM MST Sun Mar 3 2024

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM MST EARLY THIS MORNING...
...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM 
MST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...For the Dense Fog Advisory, visibility one quarter to one 
  half mile in dense fog. For the Wind Advisory, west winds 25 to 35 
  mph with gusts up to 55 mph expected.

* WHERE...Adams, Bowman, Hettinger, and Slope Counties.

* WHEN...For the Dense Fog Advisory, until 5 AM MST early this 
  morning. For the Wind Advisory, from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM MST 
  this evening.

* IMPACTS...Low visibility could make driving conditions hazardous. 
  Things left unsecured outside will be blown around.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If driving, slow down, use your headlights, and leave plenty of 
distance ahead of you.

Use extra caution. Winds this strong can make driving difficult, 
especially for high profile vehicles.

&&

$$

NDZ031>033-031500-
/O.CON.KBIS.FG.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-240303T1200Z/
/O.CON.KBIS.WI.Y.0004.240303T1500Z-240304T0300Z/
Golden Valley-Billings-Stark-
Including the cities of Medora, Beach, and Dickinson
130 AM MST Sun Mar 3 2024

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM MST EARLY THIS 
MORNING...
...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM 
MST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...For the Dense Fog Advisory, visibility one quarter mile or 
  less in dense fog. For the Wind Advisory, west winds around 30 mph 
  with gusts up to 45 mph expected.

* WHERE...Billings, Golden Valley, and Stark Counties.

* WHEN...For the Dense Fog Advisory, until 5 AM MST early this 
  morning. For the Wind Advisory, from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM MST 
  this evening.

* IMPACTS...Low visibility could make driving conditions hazardous. 
  Things left unsecured outside will be blown around.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If driving, slow down, use your headlights, and leave plenty of 
distance ahead of you.

Use extra caution. Winds this strong can make driving difficult, 
especially for high profile vehicles.

&&

$$

NDZ018-019-031200-
/O.CON.KBIS.FG.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-240303T1200Z/
Dunn-Mercer-
Including the cities of Killdeer, Halliday, Beulah, and Hazen
230 AM CST Sun Mar 3 2024 /130 AM MST Sun Mar 3 2024/

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ 
EARLY THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...Visibility one quarter mile or less in dense fog.

* WHERE...Mercer and Dunn Counties.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ early this morning.

* IMPACTS...Low visibility could make driving conditions hazardous.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If driving, slow down, use your headlights, and leave plenty of 
distance ahead of you.

Use extra caution. Winds this strong can make driving difficult, 
especially for high profile vehicles.

&&

$$

NDZ042-045-031500-
/O.CON.KBIS.WI.Y.0004.240303T1500Z-240304T0300Z/
Grant-Sioux-
Including the cities of New Leipzig, Elgin, Carson, Fort Yates,
Selfridge, and Solen
230 AM CST Sun Mar 3 2024 /130 AM MST Sun Mar 3 2024/

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ THIS 
MORNING TO 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 55 mph expected.

* WHERE...Grant and Sioux Counties.

* WHEN...From 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ this morning to 9 PM CST /8 PM 
  MST/ this evening.

* IMPACTS...Things left unsecured outside will be blown around. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If driving, slow down, use your headlights, and leave plenty of 
distance ahead of you.

Use extra caution. Winds this strong can make driving difficult, 
especially for high profile vehicles.

&&

$$

NDZ020-034>037-046>048-050-051-031500-
/O.CON.KBIS.WI.Y.0004.240303T1800Z-240304T0600Z/
Oliver-Morton-Burleigh-Kidder-Stutsman-Emmons-Logan-La Moure-
McIntosh-Dickey-
Including the cities of Linton, Kulm, Ashley, Bismarck,
Jamestown, Gackle, Lamoure, Strasburg, Edgeley, Tappen, Steele,
Napoleon, Oakes, Mandan, Ellendale, Wishek, and Center
230 AM CST Sun Mar 3 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST 
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...West winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph expected.

* WHERE...Portions of south central and southeast North Dakota.

* WHEN...From noon today to midnight CST tonight.

* IMPACTS...Objects left unsecured outside will be blown around. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution. Winds this strong can make driving difficult, 
especially for high profile vehicles.

&&

$$

Anglin

304 
WWUS73 KBIS 031153
NPWBIS

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
553 AM CST Sun Mar 3 2024

NDZ018-019-031300-
/O.EXP.KBIS.FG.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-240303T1200Z/
Dunn-Mercer-
Including the cities of Killdeer, Halliday, Beulah, and Hazen
553 AM CST Sun Mar 3 2024 /453 AM MST Sun Mar 3 2024/

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ EARLY THIS 
MORNING...

Dense fog has lifted and snow has begun. Thus the Dense Fog Advisory 
will expire at 6 AM CST / 5 AM MST this morning.

$$

NDZ031>033-040-041-043-044-032100-
/O.EXT.KBIS.FG.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-240303T1500Z/
/O.CON.KBIS.WI.Y.0004.240303T1500Z-240304T0300Z/
Golden Valley-Billings-Stark-Slope-Hettinger-Bowman-Adams-
Including the cities of Mott, Bowman, Medora, Hettinger,
Dickinson, Marmarth, Beach, and New England
453 AM MST Sun Mar 3 2024

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM MST THIS MORNING...
...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM 
MST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...For the Dense Fog Advisory, visibility one quarter to one 
  half mile in dense fog and snow. For the Wind Advisory, west winds 
  30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 55 mph expected.

* WHERE...Portions of southwestern North Dakota.

* WHEN...For the Dense Fog Advisory, until 8 AM MST this morning. 
  For the Wind Advisory, from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM MST this 
  evening.

* IMPACTS...Low visibility could make driving conditions hazardous. 
  Things left unsecured outside will be blown around.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow, possibly heavy at times, will also 
  bring reduced visibilities this morning. New snow accumulations of 
  generally an inch or less can be expected.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If driving, slow down, use your headlights, and leave plenty of 
distance ahead of you.

Use extra caution. Winds this strong can make driving difficult, 
especially for high profile vehicles.

&&

$$

NDZ042-045-032100-
/O.CON.KBIS.WI.Y.0004.240303T1500Z-240304T0300Z/
Grant-Sioux-
Including the cities of New Leipzig, Elgin, Carson, Fort Yates,
Selfridge, and Solen
553 AM CST Sun Mar 3 2024 /453 AM MST Sun Mar 3 2024/

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ THIS 
MORNING TO 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 55 mph expected.

* WHERE...Grant and Sioux Counties.

* WHEN...From 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ this morning to 9 PM CST /8 PM 
  MST/ this evening.

* IMPACTS...Things left unsecured outside will be blown around. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution. Winds this strong can make driving difficult, 
especially for high profile vehicles.

&&

$$

NDZ020-034>037-046>048-050-051-032100-
/O.CON.KBIS.WI.Y.0004.240303T1800Z-240304T0600Z/
Oliver-Morton-Burleigh-Kidder-Stutsman-Emmons-Logan-La Moure-
McIntosh-Dickey-
Including the cities of Linton, Kulm, Ashley, Bismarck,
Jamestown, Gackle, Lamoure, Strasburg, Edgeley, Tappen, Steele,
Napoleon, Oakes, Mandan, Ellendale, Wishek, and Center
553 AM CST Sun Mar 3 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST 
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...West winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph expected.

* WHERE...Portions of south central and southeast North Dakota.

* WHEN...From noon today to midnight CST tonight.

* IMPACTS...Things left unsecured outside will be blown around. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution. Winds this strong can make driving difficult, 
especially for high profile vehicles.

&&

$$

Anglin

267 
WWUS73 KBIS 031702
NPWBIS

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1102 AM CST Sun Mar 3 2024

NDZ031>033-040>045-040115-
/O.CON.KBIS.WI.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-240304T0300Z/
Golden Valley-Billings-Stark-Slope-Hettinger-Grant-Bowman-Adams-
Sioux-
Including the cities of Marmarth, New England, Fort Yates, New
Leipzig, Bowman, Mott, Hettinger, Elgin, Beach, Dickinson,
Medora, Solen, Selfridge, and Carson
1102 AM CST Sun Mar 3 2024 /1002 AM MST Sun Mar 3 2024/

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ THIS 
EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds to 35 mph with peak gusts up to 45 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of south central and southwest North Dakota.

* WHEN...Until 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ this evening.

* IMPACTS...Things left unsecured outside will be blown around. 

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Areas of blowing snow will be possible, with 
  reduced visibility, for those areas that received snowfall Sunday 
  morning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution. Winds this strong can make driving difficult, 
especially for high profile vehicles.

&&

$$

NDZ020-034>037-046>048-050-051-040115-
/O.CON.KBIS.WI.Y.0004.240303T1800Z-240304T0600Z/
Oliver-Morton-Burleigh-Kidder-Stutsman-Emmons-Logan-La Moure-
McIntosh-Dickey-
Including the cities of Jamestown, Lamoure, Tappen, Ellendale,
Wishek, Steele, Mandan, Strasburg, Gackle, Linton, Napoleon,
Edgeley, Ashley, Oakes, Bismarck, Center, and Kulm
1102 AM CST Sun Mar 3 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT...

* WHAT...West winds to 35 mph with peak gusts up to 45 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of south central and southeast North Dakota.

* WHEN...Until midnight CST tonight.

* IMPACTS...Things left unsecured outside will be blown around. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution. Winds this strong can make driving difficult, 
especially for high profile vehicles.

&&

$$

Heinert

043 
WWUS73 KBIS 032036
NPWBIS

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
236 PM CST Sun Mar 3 2024

NDZ020-034-032145-
/O.CAN.KBIS.WI.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-240304T0600Z/
Oliver-Morton-
Including the cities of Mandan and Center
236 PM CST Sun Mar 3 2024

...WIND ADVISORY IS REPLACED WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...

The wind advisory has been replaced with a winter weather advisory 
for blowing snow. Strong westerly winds to 45 mph will combine with 
fresh snowfall to produce areas of blowing snow and reduced 
visibility.

$$

NDZ032-033-032145-
/O.CAN.KBIS.WI.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-240304T0300Z/
Billings-Stark-
Including the cities of Dickinson and Medora
136 PM MST Sun Mar 3 2024

...WIND ADVISORY IS REPLACED WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...

The wind advisory has been replaced with a winter weather advisory 
for blowing snow. Strong westerly winds to 45 mph will combine with 
fresh snowfall to produce areas of blowing snow and reduced 
visibility.

$$

NDZ031-040>045-040300-
/O.CON.KBIS.WI.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-240304T0300Z/
Golden Valley-Slope-Hettinger-Grant-Bowman-Adams-Sioux-
Including the cities of Marmarth, New England, Fort Yates, New
Leipzig, Bowman, Mott, Hettinger, Elgin, Beach, Solen, Selfridge,
and Carson
236 PM CST Sun Mar 3 2024 /136 PM MST Sun Mar 3 2024/

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ THIS 
EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds to 35 mph with peak gusts up to 45 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of south central and southwest North Dakota.

* WHEN...Until 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ this evening.

* IMPACTS...Things left unsecured outside will be blown around. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution. Winds this strong can make driving difficult, 
especially for high profile vehicles.

&&

$$

NDZ035>037-046>048-050-051-040445-
/O.CON.KBIS.WI.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-240304T0600Z/
Burleigh-Kidder-Stutsman-Emmons-Logan-La Moure-McIntosh-Dickey-
Including the cities of Jamestown, Lamoure, Tappen, Ellendale,
Wishek, Steele, Strasburg, Gackle, Linton, Napoleon, Edgeley,
Ashley, Oakes, Bismarck, and Kulm
236 PM CST Sun Mar 3 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT...

* WHAT...West winds to 35 mph with peak gusts up to 45 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of south central and southeast North Dakota.

* WHEN...Until midnight CST tonight.

* IMPACTS...Things left unsecured outside will be blown around. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution. Winds this strong can make driving difficult, 
especially for high profile vehicles.

&&

$$

Heinert

636 
WWUS73 KBIS 040008
NPWBIS

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
608 PM CST Sun Mar 3 2024

NDZ031-040>045-040300-
/O.CON.KBIS.WI.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-240304T0300Z/
Golden Valley-Slope-Hettinger-Grant-Bowman-Adams-Sioux-
Including the cities of Bowman, Marmarth, Beach, Mott, New
Leipzig, Fort Yates, Elgin, Selfridge, New England, Solen,
Hettinger, and Carson
608 PM CST Sun Mar 3 2024 /508 PM MST Sun Mar 3 2024/

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ THIS 
EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds to 35 mph with peak gusts up to 45 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of south central and southwest North Dakota.

* WHEN...Until 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ this evening.

* IMPACTS...Objects left unsecured outside will be blown around. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution. Winds this strong can make driving difficult, 
especially for high profile vehicles.

&&

$$

NDZ035>037-046>048-050-051-040600-
/O.CON.KBIS.WI.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-240304T0600Z/
Burleigh-Kidder-Stutsman-Emmons-Logan-La Moure-McIntosh-Dickey-
Including the cities of Linton, Gackle, Napoleon, Tappen,
Edgeley, Steele, Oakes, Bismarck, Wishek, Ashley, Ellendale,
Jamestown, Strasburg, Kulm, and Lamoure
608 PM CST Sun Mar 3 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT...

* WHAT...West winds to 35 mph with peak gusts up to 45 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of south central and southeast North Dakota.

* WHEN...Until midnight CST tonight.

* IMPACTS...Objects left unsecured outside will be blown around. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution. Winds this strong can make driving difficult, 
especially for high profile vehicles.

&&

$$

Hargrove

103 
WWUS73 KBIS 040256
NPWBIS

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
856 PM CST Sun Mar 3 2024

NDZ031-040>045-040400-
/O.EXP.KBIS.WI.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-240304T0300Z/
Golden Valley-Slope-Hettinger-Grant-Bowman-Adams-Sioux-
Including the cities of Bowman, Marmarth, Beach, Mott, New
Leipzig, Fort Yates, Elgin, Selfridge, New England, Solen,
Hettinger, and Carson
856 PM CST Sun Mar 3 2024 /756 PM MST Sun Mar 3 2024/

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ THIS EVENING...

Winds will continue to relax overnight. The Wind Advisory will be 
allowed to expire on time west of the Missouri River.

$$

NDZ035>037-046>048-050-051-040600-
/O.CON.KBIS.WI.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-240304T0600Z/
Burleigh-Kidder-Stutsman-Emmons-Logan-La Moure-McIntosh-Dickey-
Including the cities of Linton, Gackle, Napoleon, Tappen,
Edgeley, Steele, Oakes, Bismarck, Wishek, Ashley, Ellendale,
Jamestown, Strasburg, Kulm, and Lamoure
856 PM CST Sun Mar 3 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT...

* WHAT...West winds to 35 mph with peak gusts up to 45 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of south central and southeast North Dakota.

* WHEN...Until midnight CST tonight.

* IMPACTS...Objects left unsecured outside will be blown around. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution. Winds this strong can make driving difficult, 
especially for high profile vehicles.

&&

$$

Hargrove

635 
WWUS73 KBIS 040557
NPWBIS

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1157 PM CST Sun Mar 3 2024

NDZ035>037-046>048-050-051-040700-
/O.EXP.KBIS.WI.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-240304T0600Z/
Burleigh-Kidder-Stutsman-Emmons-Logan-La Moure-McIntosh-Dickey-
Including the cities of Napoleon, Kulm, Jamestown, Tappen,
Lamoure, Bismarck, Wishek, Ashley, Strasburg, Oakes, Edgeley,
Steele, Ellendale, Linton, and Gackle
1157 PM CST Sun Mar 3 2024

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT...

Winds are starting to diminish thus the Wind Advisory will expire at 
midnight CST. Even with diminishing winds, lingering breezy winds 
could bring some patchy blowing snow through tonight.

$$

Anglin

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
755 PM CST Sat Mar 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Impactful winter weather is expected tonight through Sunday
  night from the combination of heavy snow, blowing snow, and
  freezing rain. The highest impacts are expected along the
  International Border.

- A Winter Storm Warning is in effect for counties that border
  Canada tonight through Sunday night. Here, snowfall of 5 to 10
  inches is expected, along with areas of blowing snow, and
  perhaps ice accumulations up to a tenth of an inch.

- A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for the Highway 2
  corridor and counties immediately south. Here, snowfall of 2
  to 5 inches is expected, along with patchy blowing snow, and
  perhaps ice accumulations up to a tenth of an inch.

- Strong west/northwest winds expected Sunday through Sunday
  night with gusts up to 50 mph possible, especially in southern
  North Dakota.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 755 PM CST Sat Mar 2 2024

Observed conditions and trends have prompted the issuance of a
Dense Fog Advisory for Stark, Mercer, Dunn, Billings, and Golden
Valley Counties until 5 AM MST.

.UPDATE...
Issued at 742 PM CST Sat Mar 2 2024

Several adjustments have been made to the forecast over the last
hour:

1) Radar has shown persistent banded snow across Bottineau,
Rolette, Renville, northern McHenry, and northern Ward Counties
for the past few hours. In response, the start time of the
warning was moved up for Bottineau and Rolette Counties, as well
as the advisory for McHenry County. No other headline changes
have been made as of this writing.

2) Some lighter radar returns of a showery nature are now making
their way into southwest North Dakota. Hettinger recently
reported unknown precipitation, with a temperature of 36 and
dewpoint of 29. Chances for both rain, which was initially the
most likely precipitation type, as well as sleet have been
increased through the evening.

3) Dense fog is beginning to form over portions of southwest
North Dakota, especially in the Dickinson area. In addition,
light freezing drizzle was recently reported by an NWS employee
on the north side of Bismarck. HRRR/RAP guidance does support
these threats continuing through the night until heavier
precipitation arrives and/or winds turn to the west.

4) Easterly winds are trending slightly stronger than the
inherited forecast this evening, especially in northwest North
Dakota. The wind forecast has been updated accordingly.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM CST Sat Mar 2 2024

Currently, large upper level trough over the Pacific Northwest
with southwesterly flow aloft over the Northern Plains. Mid
level impulse and a 700mb warm front lifting north across the
state continues to generate an area of light to moderate snow
over the northern third of ND this afternoon, with mostly
cloudy and dry conditions to the south. Expect up to around an
inch of snow with this area of precipitation as it moves to the
northeast over the next few hours.

We remain on track for a stronger mid level wave and associated
surface low to impact the region tonight through the day Sunday,
ending Sunday night. Deep surface low will move out of the
Northern High Plains of Wyoming tonight, then across central
South Dakota and into eastern North Dakota on Sunday.
Precipitation with this system will develop across western and
central ND this evening, increasing in coverage and intensity
overnight as the main forcing arrives. Precipitation then
pivots northward on Sunday, pushing north into Canada Sunday
night.

The main challenge continues to be Ptypes and thus snow/ice
accumulations with this event, due to the degree/duration, and
placement of warmer air aloft wrapping into this storm system,
as well as eventual sfc temperatures (mainly south and southeast
with sfc air temps). Overall our thinking the past 12 hours
hasn't changed much, with the higher confidence in freezing rain
and ice accumulations along and south of Interstate 94 tonight,
and along and east of Highway 83 Sunday morning. Another factor
in storm total snow is guidance indicating decent banding
potential late tonight through early Sunday afternoon across the
north. There are notable difference still between the
GEFS/EC/Canadian ensemble means for snowfall, mainly how far
south the higher totals extend. NBM probs for over 6 inches is
now 70-80 percent along the International border, dropping down
to around 50 percent along Highway 2. Blowing snow will still be
impactful as well, especially when the west/northwest winds
kick in in the wake of the sfc low Sunday afternoon into Sunday
night.

Opted to leave headlines as is with this forecast package, with
the higher confidence in impacts across the north. May need yet
to extend the winter weather advisory a bit more to the south
depending on how ice accumulations play out with the freezing
rain. For now, there wasn't enough confidence to modify for
this yet. Also, because of the banding potential, there remains
a chance the warning will need to be extended a tier of
counties to the south, though this confidence level hasn't been
reached just yet either.

Outside of winter weather headlines, wind headlines will also
likely be needed at some point for Sunday/Sunday night,
especially along and south of Interstate 94. We still have time
for this, and for now will continue to mention the stronger
winds in the HWO and other products vs. issuing wind highlights
with this forecast package.

Persistant southeasterly flow leaves us in an unsettled and cooler
pattern through much of next week. High temperatures remain at or
slightly below seasonable normals, from the upper single digits
north to lower 30s south Monday through Wednesday, then from the
lower twenties to upper 30s through the rest of the workweek.
Chances for precipitation increase late Tuesday through Friday as a
weak impulse and attendant surface lows tracks across the region.
While any precipitation that does eek out of the system would fall
as snow, weak moisture returns and a favored track (85% ensemble
membership) the stays to our northeast means little to no
accumulations are currently expected. A minority cluster (~15%) does
exist that represents the high-outcome event as the storm path move
across our northern counties, but even then the greatest snow
accumulations are limited to around an inch at most at this time.
Late Friday and into weekend, a strong upper level ridging pattern
will dig into the region, leaving us high and dry as temperatures
begin to climb again back toward or slightly above seasonable
normals.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 742 PM CST Sat Mar 2 2024

740 PM CST Update: Dense fog has developed at KDIK, which may
continue into the overnight hours until heavier precipitation
arrives and/or winds become westerly. There could also be some
light freezing drizzle across southwest and south central North
Dakota this evening into the overnight hours.

Original Discussion for 00Z TAFs: A low pressure system will
bring mixed precipitation, low ceilings, and strong winds across
western and central North Dakota through the forecast period.
Most terminals will remain dry early this evening, with IFR/MVFR
ceilings and easterly winds around 15 kts. Chances for
precipitation ramp up overnight for western and north central
parts of the state, spreading into south central North Dakota
early Sunday morning and the eastern third of the state by
midday. In northwest North Dakota, precipitation type is likely
to remain snow. North central parts of the state could see a
variety of types initially, with SN/IP most likely at KMOT,
before transitioning to all snow late Sunday morning. Southwest
and south central North Dakota are likely to see shorter periods
of both freezing rain and snow late tonight through Sunday
morning before lighter snow takes over Sunday afternoon.
Finally, temperatures will remain warm enough at KJMS for rain
Sunday morning, but could cool enough to allow a transition to
snow later Sunday afternoon. Ceilings will predominantly be IFR
overnight into Sunday morning, with LIFR possible. Improvement
to MVFR ceilings is expected from south to north on Sunday, with
VFR across the south possible by mid afternoon. The center of
low pressure is expected to move across central North Dakota
from southwest to northeast Sunday morning. This will bring a
period of lighter and variable winds followed by strengthening
westerly winds from south to north on Sunday. The strongest
winds will be across southern North Dakota, with sustained
speeds around 30 kts and gusts approaching 40 kts.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Monday for NDZ001>005.
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Monday for
NDZ009>012-017>019-021.
Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 AM CST
Monday for NDZ013-022-023-025.
Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Sunday for NDZ018-
019-031>033.

&&

UPDATE...Hollan
DISCUSSION...Adam/NH
AVIATION...Hollan

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
753 PM CST Sat Mar 2 2024

NDZ001>005-040200-
Divide-Burke-Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-
753 PM CST Sat Mar 2 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota and northwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A Winter Storm Warning is in effect. See weather.gov/bis for
details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

A Winter Storm Warning is in effect through Sunday night. See
weather.gov/bis for details.

Strong northwest winds are expected Sunday through Sunday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

NDZ009>013-017-021>023-025-040200-
Williams-Mountrail-Ward-McHenry-Pierce-McKenzie-McLean-Sheridan-
Wells-Foster-
753 PM CST Sat Mar 2 2024 /653 PM MST Sat Mar 2 2024/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, northwest North Dakota, south central North Dakota,
and southeast North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect. See weather.gov/bis for
details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect through Sunday night. See
weather.gov/bis for details.

Strong northwest winds are expected Sunday through Sunday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

NDZ018-019-040200-
Dunn-Mercer-
753 PM CST Sat Mar 2 2024 /653 PM MST Sat Mar 2 2024/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
North Dakota and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A Winter Weather Advisory and Dense Fog Advisory are in effect.
See weather.gov/bis for details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect through Sunday night. See
weather.gov/bis for details.

Strong northwest winds are expected Sunday through Sunday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

NDZ031>033-040200-
Golden Valley-Billings-Stark-
653 PM MST Sat Mar 2 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest North
Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect. See weather.gov/bis for
details.

Areas of snow and freezing rain will develop tonight. Travel may
become hazardous.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Periods of snow and freezing rain Sunday morning, becoming all
snow Sunday afternoon, diminishing Sunday night. Light snow and
ice accumulations are possible.

Strong northwest winds are expected Sunday through Sunday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

NDZ020-034>037-040>048-050-051-040200-
Oliver-Morton-Burleigh-Kidder-Stutsman-Slope-Hettinger-Grant-
Bowman-Adams-Sioux-Emmons-Logan-La Moure-McIntosh-Dickey-
753 PM CST Sat Mar 2 2024 /653 PM MST Sat Mar 2 2024/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
North Dakota, southeast North Dakota, and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Areas of snow and freezing rain will develop tonight. Travel may
become hazardous.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Periods of snow and freezing rain Sunday morning, becoming all
snow Sunday afternoon, diminishing Sunday night. Light snow and
ice accumulations are possible.

Strong northwest winds are expected Sunday through Sunday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

Hollan

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
701 PM CST Sat Mar 2 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     Snow             Harvey                  47.77N 99.94W
03/02/2024  M3.0 inch        Wells              ND   Broadcast Media

            Storm total thus far. Still some light snow
            in the area.

&&

ZH