Red Flag Warning 9, NWS Bismarck, ND

Adams County, ND, Billings County, ND, Bowman County, ND, Burke County, ND, Burleigh County, ND, Divide County, ND, Dunn County, ND, Emmons County, ND, Golden Valley County, ND, Grant County, ND, Hettinger County, ND, McKenzie County, ND, McLean County, ND, Mercer County, ND, Morton County, ND, Mountrail County, ND, Oliver County, ND, Renville County, ND, Sioux County, ND, Slope County, ND, Stark County, ND, Ward County, ND, Williams County, ND

343 
WWUS83 KBIS 011148
RFWBIS

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
648 AM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024

...RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...

.Critical fire weather conditions are expected across the western
half of the state this afternoon and early evening. High
temperatures will return to the upper 60 to mid 70s within a very
dry air mass, resulting in minimum humidity values around 10 to
15 percent. Southwest winds are expected to increase to around
20 to 25 mph this afternoon, with gusts as high as 35 mph.

NDZ001>003-009>011-017>021-031>035-040>046-020000-
/O.CON.KBIS.FW.W.0009.241001T1700Z-241002T0000Z/
Divide-Burke-Renville-Williams-Mountrail-Ward-McKenzie-Dunn-
Mercer-Oliver-McLean-Golden Valley-Billings-Stark-Morton-Burleigh-
Slope-Hettinger-Grant-Bowman-Adams-Sioux-Emmons-
648 AM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024 /548 AM MDT Tue Oct 1 2024/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/
TODAY TO 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF NORTH DAKOTA...

* WINDS...Southwest around 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 10 percent.

* AFFECTED AREA...Along and west of Highway 83.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that ignite will spread rapidly and become 
  difficult to control or suppress.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

Hollan

953 
WWUS83 KBIS 011735
RFWBIS

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1235 PM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024

...RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...

.Critical fire weather conditions will continue across the 
western half of the state through the early evening. High 
temperatures will return to the upper 60s to mid 70s within a 
very dry air mass, resulting in minimum humidity values around 10 
to 15 percent. Southwest winds of around 20 to 25 mph, with gusts 
as high as 35 mph, will continue through this afternoon before 
diminishing this evening.

NDZ001>003-009>011-017>021-031>035-040>046-020000-
/O.CON.KBIS.FW.W.0009.000000T0000Z-241002T0000Z/
Divide-Burke-Renville-Williams-Mountrail-Ward-McKenzie-Dunn-
Mercer-Oliver-McLean-Golden Valley-Billings-Stark-Morton-Burleigh-
Slope-Hettinger-Grant-Bowman-Adams-Sioux-Emmons-
1235 PM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024 /1135 AM MDT Tue Oct 1 2024/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/
THIS EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE WESTERN
HALF OF NORTH DAKOTA...

* WINDS...Southwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 10 percent.

* AFFECTED AREA...Along and west of Highway 83.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that ignite will spread rapidly and become 
  difficult to control or suppress.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

Telken

462 
WWUS83 KBIS 012359
RFWBIS

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
659 PM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE...

.While low minimum relative humidities continue across portions of
western and central North Dakota, with percentages generally in
the teens in the southwest and the lower twenties elsewhere,
breezy to strong southwesterly winds have begun to diminish this
evening. As the critical fire weather threat will rapidly 
diminish over the next hour, the Red Flag warning has been 
allowed to expire on time. Critical fire weather conditions will 
remain possible before sunset as winds continue to diminish.

NDZ001>003-009>011-017>021-031>035-040>046-020100-
/O.EXP.KBIS.FW.W.0009.000000T0000Z-241002T0000Z/
Divide-Burke-Renville-Williams-Mountrail-Ward-McKenzie-Dunn-
Mercer-Oliver-McLean-Golden Valley-Billings-Stark-Morton-Burleigh-
Slope-Hettinger-Grant-Bowman-Adams-Sioux-Emmons-
659 PM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024 /559 PM MDT Tue Oct 1 2024/

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS
EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE WESTERN
HALF OF NORTH DAKOTA...

While low minimum relative humidities continue across portions of
western and central North Dakota, with percentages generally in
the teens in the southwest and the lower twenties elsewhere,
breezy to strong southwesterly winds have begun to diminish this
evening. As the critical fire weather threat will rapidly 
diminish over the next hour, the Red Flag warning has been 
allowed to expire on time. Critical fire weather conditions will 
remain possible before sunset as winds continue to diminish.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1245 AM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Frost (scattered to widespread) is likely across western and
  much of central North Dakota tonight into Tuesday morning. A
  hard freeze is probable in southwest and for parts of central
  parts of the state tonight into Tuesday morning.

- Near critical fire weather will be possible during the day
  Tuesday across the west.

- Very little to no measurable precipitation is expected this
  week, with temperatures at or slightly above normal for early
  October.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024

Overall, the forecast for tonight remains on track. Surface high
pressure is now centered over northeast Wyoming. Starting to
already see several observing sites in the west with
temperatures in the mid 30s.

UPDATE
Issued at 850 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024

Winds continue to rapidly diminish as the sun has set.
Therefore, we will let the Wind Advisory expire on time at 9 PM
CDT. No major changes were needed for this update. Blended in
the latest observations to the going forecast.

UPDATE
Issued at 706 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024

Quick update to expire the Red Flag Warning on time as discussed
in the last update.

UPDATE
Issued at 637 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024

No major changes were needed for this update. Many sites
continue to observe advisory criteria for winds and gusts, so we
decided to go ahead and extend the Wind Advisory until 02z
Tuesday. As the sun sets, winds should drop off fairly quickly
but some gusts to 50 mph should continue for the next hour or
two. That being said, we are planning on letting Red Flag
Warning to expire on time at 00z. Cooler temperatures and
recovering humidity should limit the fire weather threat after
00z, but we could still see an hour or two of near critical fire
weather conditions in some areas before winds diminish.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024

Currently, strong mid/upper level S/WV continues to swing
easterly across far south central Canada and the Northern Plains
region, which ushered in a strong cold FROPA last night through
earlier this morning from northwest to southeast. Strong/gusty
northwest winds accompanied the frontal passage, and continue to
be strong across the local region with peak gusts still in the
45 to 55 mph range. Thus, the wind advisory remains valid and
will remain in effect through 00z. With the frontal passage and
coupled with the main mid level forcing with the wave, a few
scattered showers continue to rotate east-southeast/back
east/northeast across northern areas of the region. Will also
maintain this in the forecast.

Red Flag fire weather conditions continue to be met across
southwest and far south central North Dakota, while more
marginal conditions elsewhere. With winds gusting to 45-55 mph,
and fuels curring, we opted to keep fire weather headlines as
is west and south. No need to deviate on this day where winds
and RH are at or near peak climatological means.

Wind and fire weather conditions will quickly improve this
evening as sfc high pressure builds into the region and
subsidence in the wake of the aforementioned wave spreads across
the Dakotas. Next forecast highlight will be frost and freeze
tonight, as very dry air, diminishing winds and a clear sky
results in temperatures dropping will into the 30s many areas,
and upper 20s possible in our more cold-prone areas southwest
into southern areas of Lake Sakakawea (Beulah and Hazen). Opted
to go with a Freeze warning where the watch was at, and a Frost
Advisory for other locations except the far east.

West/northwest flow aloft continues into Tuesday, with very dry
air remaining over the region. Mid RH values will again be in
the teens west and central Tue afternoon, with gusty southwest
winds developing during the day. Thus, additional fire weather
headlines are not out of the question.

A quasi-zonal flow pattern remains forecast for the remainder
of the work week, with mainly dry weather conditions and
temperatures near to above seasonal (NBM is about 10 degrees
above normal through this week). Can't rule out additional fire
weather days next week with the dry airmass in place and if any
day see breezy winds.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Winds
will become southwest on Tuesday and increase to around 15 to 20
kts during the afternoon, with gusts up to 25 to 30 kts. Low
level wind shear is expected to develop at KJMS late Tuesday
evening.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory until 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning for
NDZ001>004-009>012-017-020>022-031-032-034>036-042-045>047-050.
Freeze Warning until 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning for
NDZ018-019-033-040-041-043-044.

&&

UPDATE...Hollan
DISCUSSION...Hollan/NH
AVIATION...Hollan

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1247 AM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024

NDZ018-019-033-040-041-043-044-020600-
Dunn-Mercer-Stark-Slope-Hettinger-Bowman-Adams-
1247 AM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024 /1147 PM MDT Mon Sep 30 2024/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
North Dakota and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A Freeze Warning is in effect late tonight through Tuesday
morning. See weather.gov/bis for more details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

A Freeze Warning is in effect through Tuesday morning. See
weather.gov/bis for more details.

Near-critical fire weather conditions are possible Tuesday
afternoon across western North Dakota.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

NDZ001>005-009>013-017-020>023-025-031-032-034>037-042-045>048-
050-051-020600-
Divide-Burke-Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-Williams-Mountrail-Ward-
McHenry-Pierce-McKenzie-Oliver-McLean-Sheridan-Wells-Foster-
Golden Valley-Billings-Morton-Burleigh-Kidder-Stutsman-Grant-
Sioux-Emmons-Logan-La Moure-McIntosh-Dickey-
1247 AM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024 /1147 PM MDT Mon Sep 30 2024/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, northwest North Dakota, south central North Dakota,
southeast North Dakota, and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A Frost Advisory is in effect late tonight through Tuesday
morning. See weather.gov/bis for more details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

A Frost Advisory is in effect through Tuesday morning. See
weather.gov/bis for more details.

Near-critical fire weather conditions are possible Tuesday
afternoon across western North Dakota.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

Hollan