Red Flag Warning 8, NWS Bismarck, ND

706 
WWUS83 KBIS 292340
RFWBIS

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
640 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024

...RED FLAG WARNING FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND PARTS OF SOUTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

...RED FLAG WARNING FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

.For this evening, record-breaking high temperatures in the 90s, 
minimum relative humidity values in the 10 to 20 percent range, 
and strong southerly winds gusting to around 40 mph will combine 
to create critical fire weather conditions across much of central 
and parts of southwest North Dakota through late evening.

Then for later tonight into Monday morning, a strong cold front
will move across the state from west to east. This front will
cause a wind shift to the northwest and increase gusts to around
45 to 50 mph along and behind the front. Even though this frontal
passage is expected during nighttime hours, relative humidity is
expected to remain lower than 35 percent through the night.
Temperatures will be much cooler during the day Monday, but
humidity in the 20 to 30 percent range combined with strong
northwest winds will produce another period of critical fire
weather conditions across much of south central and western North
Dakota through the day Monday.

NDZ011-012-021-022-035-036-300300-
/O.CON.KBIS.FW.W.0007.000000T0000Z-240930T0300Z/
Ward-McHenry-McLean-Sheridan-Burleigh-Kidder-
640 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND PARTS OF SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...

* WINDS...South 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 17 percent.

* AFFECTED AREA...Much of central North Dakota.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that ignite will spread rapidly and become 
  difficult to control or suppress.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

NDZ019-020-033-034-041-042-044>047-050-301145-
/O.CON.KBIS.FW.W.0007.000000T0000Z-241001T0000Z/
Mercer-Oliver-Stark-Morton-Hettinger-Grant-Adams-Sioux-Emmons-
Logan-McIntosh-
640 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024 /540 PM MDT Sun Sep 29 2024/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/
MONDAY FOR STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND PARTS OF SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...

* WINDS...For the warning today, south winds around 20 to 30 mph 
  with gusts up to 40 mph. For the warning tonight and Monday, 
  northwest winds around 25 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...For the warning today, as low as 10 
  percent. For the warning tonight and Monday, as low as 20 
  percent.

* AFFECTED AREA...Much of south central and parts of southwest 
  North Dakota.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that ignite will spread rapidly and become 
  difficult to control or suppress.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

NDZ009-017-018-031-032-040-043-301145-
/O.CON.KBIS.FW.W.0008.240930T0600Z-241001T0000Z/
Williams-McKenzie-Dunn-Golden Valley-Billings-Slope-Bowman-
640 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024 /540 PM MDT Sun Sep 29 2024/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT
MDT/ TO 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ MONDAY FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FOR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...

* WINDS...Northwest 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 20 percent.

* AFFECTED AREA...Most of far western North Dakota.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that ignite will spread rapidly and become 
  difficult to control or suppress.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

000 
WWUS83 KBIS 300312
RFWBIS

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1012 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024

...RED FLAG WARNING FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

.For later tonight into Monday morning, a strong cold front will 
move across the state from west to east. This front will cause a 
wind shift to the northwest and increase gusts to around 45 to 50 
mph along and behind the front. Even though this frontal passage 
is expected during nighttime hours, relative humidity is expected 
to remain lower than 35 percent through the night. Temperatures 
will be much cooler during the day Monday, but humidity in the 20 
to 30 percent range combined with strong northwest winds will 
produce another period of critical fire weather conditions across 
much of south central and western North Dakota through the day 
Monday.

NDZ011-012-021-022-035-036-300415-
/O.EXP.KBIS.FW.W.0007.000000T0000Z-240930T0300Z/
Ward-McHenry-McLean-Sheridan-Burleigh-Kidder-
1012 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND PARTS OF SOUTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA...

Humidity has recovered mainly into the 30 to 40 percent range with
a break in the stronger winds. Therefore, the Red Flag Warning was
allowed to expire on time for Ward, McHenry, McLean, Sheridan,
Burleigh, and Kidder counties. 

$$

NDZ019-020-033-034-041-042-044>047-050-301515-
/O.CON.KBIS.FW.W.0007.000000T0000Z-241001T0000Z/
Mercer-Oliver-Stark-Morton-Hettinger-Grant-Adams-Sioux-Emmons-
Logan-McIntosh-
1012 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024 /912 PM MDT Sun Sep 29 2024/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/
MONDAY FOR STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND PARTS OF SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...

* WINDS...Northwest winds around 25 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45
  mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 20 percent.

* AFFECTED AREA...Much of south central and parts of southwest 
  North Dakota.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that ignite will spread rapidly and become 
  difficult to control or suppress.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

NDZ009-017-018-031-032-040-043-301515-
/O.CON.KBIS.FW.W.0008.240930T0600Z-241001T0000Z/
Williams-McKenzie-Dunn-Golden Valley-Billings-Slope-Bowman-
1012 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024 /912 PM MDT Sun Sep 29 2024/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/
MONDAY FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...

* WINDS...Northwest 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 20 percent.

* AFFECTED AREA...Most of far western North Dakota.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that ignite will spread rapidly and become 
  difficult to control or suppress.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

450 
WWUS83 KBIS 300727
RFWBIS

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
227 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024

...RED FLAG WARNING FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH 
DAKOTA THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...

.A strong cold front moving across the state from west to east early 
this morning will cause a wind shift to the northwest and increase 
gusts to around 45 to 55 mph along and behind the front.
Relative humidity ahead of and immediately trailing the cold 
frontal passage will remain in the 25 to 35 percent range, with 
some recovery expected after sunrise. Northwest winds will remain 
strong through this afternoon, with sustained speeds up to 35 mph
and gusts up to 50 mph. Relative humidity is also expected to 
fall back into 25 to 35 percent range this afternoon, especially 
near the South Dakota border. The threat for critical fire weather
conditions will quickly end after sunset early this evening.

NDZ009-017-018-031-032-040-043-301930-
/O.CON.KBIS.FW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-241001T0000Z/
Williams-McKenzie-Dunn-Golden Valley-Billings-Slope-Bowman-
227 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 /127 AM MDT Mon Sep 30 2024/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/
THIS EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR MOST OF FAR 
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...

* WINDS...Northwest winds around 30 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55
  mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 25 percent.

* AFFECTED AREA...Most of far western North Dakota.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that ignite will spread rapidly and become 
  difficult to control or suppress.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

NDZ019-020-033-034-041-042-044>047-050-301930-
/O.CON.KBIS.FW.W.0007.000000T0000Z-241001T0000Z/
Mercer-Oliver-Stark-Morton-Hettinger-Grant-Adams-Sioux-Emmons-
Logan-McIntosh-
227 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 /127 AM MDT Mon Sep 30 2024/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/
THIS EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR SOUTHWEST AND
MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...

* WINDS...Northwest winds around 30 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55
  mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 25 percent.

* AFFECTED AREA...Southwest and much of south central North 
  Dakota.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that ignite will spread rapidly and become 
  difficult to control or suppress.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

Hollan

802 
WWUS83 KBIS 300745
RFWBIS

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
245 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024

...RED FLAG WARNING FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...

.A strong cold front moving across the state from west to east
early this morning will cause a wind shift to the northwest and
increase gusts to around 45 to 55 mph along and behind the front.
Relative humidity ahead of and immediately trailing the cold
frontal passage will remain in the 25 to 35 percent range, with
some recovery expected after sunrise. Northwest winds will remain
strong through this afternoon, with sustained speeds up to 35 mph
and gusts up to 50 mph. Relative humidity is also expected to
fall back into 25 to 35 percent range this afternoon, especially
near the South Dakota border. The threat for critical fire
weather conditions will quickly end after sunset early this
evening.

NDZ009-300845-
/O.CAN.KBIS.FW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-241001T0000Z/
Williams-
245 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FOR WILLIAMS COUNTY...

The National Weather Service in Bismarck has cancelled the Red
Flag Warning for Williams County.

Relative humidity is now forecast to be higher than previously
expected through this afternoon, and the Fire Danger Index is 
forecast to remain Low. Northwest winds will remain strong through
the afternoon at around 30 to 35 mph, with gusts up to 50 mph.

$$

NDZ048-051-301945-
/O.EXA.KBIS.FW.W.0007.000000T0000Z-241001T0000Z/
La Moure-Dickey-
245 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR LAMOURE AND DICKEY COUNTIES...

The National Weather Service in Bismarck has issued a Red Flag
Warning for wind and low relative humidity, which is in effect
until 7 PM CDT this evening.

* WINDS...Northwest winds around 30 to 35 mph with gusts up to 
  55 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 22 percent.

* AFFECTED AREA...LaMoure and Dickey Counties.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that ignite will spread rapidly and become 
  difficult to control or suppress.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

NDZ017-018-031-032-040-043-301945-
/O.CON.KBIS.FW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-241001T0000Z/
McKenzie-Dunn-Golden Valley-Billings-Slope-Bowman-
245 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 /145 AM MDT Mon Sep 30 2024/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/
THIS EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR MOST OF FAR
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...

* WINDS...Northwest winds around 30 to 35 mph with gusts up to 
  55 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 25 percent.

* AFFECTED AREA...Most of far western North Dakota.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that ignite will spread rapidly and become 
  difficult to control or suppress.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

NDZ019-020-033-034-041-042-044>047-050-301945-
/O.CON.KBIS.FW.W.0007.000000T0000Z-241001T0000Z/
Mercer-Oliver-Stark-Morton-Hettinger-Grant-Adams-Sioux-Emmons-
Logan-McIntosh-
245 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 /145 AM MDT Mon Sep 30 2024/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/
THIS EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR SOUTHWEST AND
MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...

* WINDS...Northwest winds around 30 to 35 mph with gusts up to 
  55 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 25 percent.

* AFFECTED AREA...Southwest and much of south central North 
  Dakota.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that ignite will spread rapidly and become 
  difficult to control or suppress.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

Hollan

973 
WWUS83 KBIS 301151
RFWBIS

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
651 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024

...RED FLAG WARNING FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...

.A strong cold front moving across the state from west to east
early this morning will cause a wind shift to the northwest and
increase gusts to around 45 to 55 mph along and behind the front.
Relative humidity ahead of and immediately trailing the cold
frontal passage will remain in the 25 to 35 percent range, with
some recovery expected after sunrise. Northwest winds will remain
strong through this afternoon, with sustained speeds up to 35 mph
and gusts up to 50 mph. Relative humidity is also expected to
fall back into 25 to 35 percent range this afternoon, especially
near the South Dakota border. The threat for critical fire
weather conditions will quickly end after sunset early this
evening.

NDZ017-018-031-032-040-043-010000-
/O.CON.KBIS.FW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-241001T0000Z/
McKenzie-Dunn-Golden Valley-Billings-Slope-Bowman-
651 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 /551 AM MDT Mon Sep 30 2024/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/
THIS EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR MOST OF FAR
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...

* WINDS...Northwest winds around 30 to 35 mph with gusts up to 
  55 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 25 percent.

* AFFECTED AREA...Most of far western North Dakota.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that ignite will spread rapidly and become 
  difficult to control or suppress.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

NDZ019-020-033-034-041-042-044>048-050-051-010000-
/O.CON.KBIS.FW.W.0007.000000T0000Z-241001T0000Z/
Mercer-Oliver-Stark-Morton-Hettinger-Grant-Adams-Sioux-Emmons-
Logan-La Moure-McIntosh-Dickey-
651 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 /551 AM MDT Mon Sep 30 2024/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/
THIS EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR SOUTHWEST AND
MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...

* WINDS...Northwest winds around 30 to 35 mph with gusts up to 
  55 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 25 percent.

* AFFECTED AREA...Southwest and much of south central North 
  Dakota.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that ignite will spread rapidly and become 
  difficult to control or suppress.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

Hollan

093 
WWUS83 KBIS 302032
RFWBIS

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
332 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024

...RED FLAG WARNING FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...

.A strong cold front moving across the state will continue to 
produce strong northwest winds with gusts to around 55 mph along 
and behind the front. Minimum relative humidity this afternoon ahead
of and immediately trailing the cold frontal passage will remain 
in the 25 to 35 percent range, with conditions improving after 
sunrise. The threat for critical fire weather conditions will 
quickly end after sunset early this evening.

NDZ017-018-031-032-040-043-010000-
/O.CON.KBIS.FW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-241001T0000Z/
McKenzie-Dunn-Golden Valley-Billings-Slope-Bowman-
332 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 /232 PM MDT Mon Sep 30 2024/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/
THIS EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR MOST OF FAR
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...

* WINDS...Northwest to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 21 percent.

* AFFECTED AREA...Most of far western North Dakota and south
  central North Dakota.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that ignite will spread rapidly and become 
  difficult to control or suppress.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

NDZ019-020-033-034-041-042-044>048-050-051-010000-
/O.CON.KBIS.FW.W.0007.000000T0000Z-241001T0000Z/
Mercer-Oliver-Stark-Morton-Hettinger-Grant-Adams-Sioux-Emmons-
Logan-La Moure-McIntosh-Dickey-
332 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 /232 PM MDT Mon Sep 30 2024/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/
THIS EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR SOUTHWEST AND
MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...

* WINDS...Northwest 25 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 23 percent.

* AFFECTED AREA...Southwest and much of south central North 
  Dakota.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that ignite will spread rapidly and become 
  difficult to control or suppress.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

NH

962 
WWUS83 KBIS 010005
RFWBIS

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
705 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

.Temperatures continue to cool and humidity continues to recover.
Breezy to windy conditions will continue to be possible over the
next hour or two, so some near critical fire weather conditions 
remain possible before sunset. That being said, the critical fire
weather threat appears to be rapidly diminishing so we will let 
the Red Flag Warning expire on time. 

NDZ019-020-033-034-041-042-044>048-050-051-010115-
/O.EXP.KBIS.FW.W.0007.000000T0000Z-241001T0000Z/
Mercer-Oliver-Stark-Morton-Hettinger-Grant-Adams-Sioux-Emmons-
Logan-La Moure-McIntosh-Dickey-
705 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 /605 PM MDT Mon Sep 30 2024/

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FOR MOST OF FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...

Temperatures continue to cool and humidity continues to recover.
Breezy to windy conditions will continue to be possible over the
next hour or two, so some near critical fire weather conditions 
remain possible before sunset. That being said, the critical fire
weather threat appears to be rapidly diminishing so we will let 
the Red Flag Warning expire on time.

$$

NDZ017-018-031-032-040-043-010115-
/O.EXP.KBIS.FW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-241001T0000Z/
McKenzie-Dunn-Golden Valley-Billings-Slope-Bowman-
705 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 /605 PM MDT Mon Sep 30 2024/

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FOR SOUTHWEST AND MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...

Temperatures continue to cool and humidity continues to recover.
Breezy to windy conditions will continue to be possible over the
next hour or two, so some near critical fire weather conditions 
remain possible before sunset. That being said, the critical fire
weather threat appears to be rapidly diminishing so we will let 
the Red Flag Warning expire on time.

$$

ZH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
320 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Record-breaking heat expected across the western half of the
  state today, with highs in the 90s. Windy central and east,
  with winds increasing west to east tonight.

- Critical fire weather conditions expected across much of
  central and parts of southwest North Dakota today, and across
  much of western and south central North Dakota tonight
  through Monday.

- Much cooler with strong northwest winds on Monday.

- Increasing potential for areas of frost across western North
  Dakota Monday night into Tuesday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024

Currently, upper ridge axis has shifted to the east as a well
defined mid level S/WV moves onshore and advances inland across
the far Pacific Northwest/Southwestern Canada. Associated
sfc/mid level low has resulted in increasing southerly flow
into the region, promoting strong WAA and unseasonably warm
temperatures across the Dakotas. Boundary layer temperatures
are at or above the 99th percentiles of climatology today, with
record high temperatures already set at several locations
across western and central ND. Coupled with strong moderate to
strong mixing, afternoon relative humidity has fallen into the
teens and 20s, resulting in critical fire weather conditions
central and across parts of southwest ND. The Red Flag warning
thus remains valid (See Fire Weather Discussion Below for more
information).

The aforementioned S/WV will continue east along far southern
Canada/Northern Plains region tonight into Monday, and will
drive a strong cold FROPA through the region later this Sunday
evening through early Monday. Resultant weather will be
northwest winds increasing west to east, along with much cooler
temperatures surging into the region (Highs Monday upper 50s
northwest - low 70s southern James Valley), around 20-35 degrees
cooler than today. The main concern with the frontal passage
remains strong wind and fire weather. Opted to issue a wind
advisory across the entire CWA from 03Z this evening through the
day Monday. Strongest winds will likely occur along and behind
the FROPA tonight-Monday morning, where winds will gust to
around 50 mph. BUFKIT soundings and ensemble probabilities are
in agreement with warning criteria winds remaining aloft, but
wouldn't be surprised to see a few +58 mph gusts late
tonight/early Monday with the front.

Very dry air will also accompany the frontal passage, and will
result in another period of critical fire weather. Opted to
upgrade the Fire Weather Watch for tonight/Monday to a Red Flag
based on the projected Min humidity, strong northwest winds, and
in collaboration with our neighbors. The Red Flag over western
ND will start late tonight, while the Red Flag south central and
for parts of the southwest will basically remain valid now
through Monday. Again, see Fire Weather discussion below for
details.

A quasi-zonal flow pattern remains forecast for the remainder
of the work week, with mainly dry weather conditions and
temperatures more seasonal. The probabilities for morning frost
and minimum temperatures dropping to around freezing continue to
increase for Tuesday morning west, with another chance next
week Friday morning. In addition, can't rule out more elevated
fire weather concerns next week, as fuels cure and we see
several dry and breezy days ahead.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.
Southerly winds will be gusty across central and eastern North
Dakota today, with sustained speeds around 20-25 kts and gusts
around 30-35 kts. Winds will be more southwesterly and slightly
weaker to the west, around 15 kts with gusts to 25 kts. Later
tonight, a cold front will move across the state with winds
switching to the northwest and increasing to 20-25 kts, with
gusts up to 40 kts. Some low level wind shear will be possible
tonight at various terminals, mainly east.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 315 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024

Record-breaking high temperatures in the 90s reducing humidity
this afternoon into the 10 to 20 percent range across western
and most of central North Dakota. In addition, gusty southerly
winds with sustained speeds around 20 to 30 mph and gusts to
around 40 mph have been common central and east. Combination of
these conditions results in critical fire weather, thus the Red
Flag Warning remains in effect. Outside of the Red Flag
Warning, which is in effect through this evening, near-critical
fire weather conditions are expected.

A strong cold front moves across the state late tonight through
early Monday morning, bringing a reinforced shot of dry air.
This will produce a unique setup where poor to very poor
overnight RH recoveries will combine with the cold FROPA winds
to produce nocturnal critical fire weather conditions west and
sustain critical fire weather conditions south central. The
expected wind shift from south to northwest will also support
Red Flag conditions. Opted to upgrade the Fire Weather watch to
a Red Flag, starting in the west late tonight, and keeping the
Red Flag warning south central ongoing. Later shifts can adjust
as needed.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening to 7 PM
CDT /6 PM MDT/ Monday for NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-
031>037-040>048-050-051.
Red Flag Warning from 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ to 7 PM CDT /6
PM MDT/ Monday for NDZ009-017-018-031-032-040-043.
Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for NDZ011-012-
021-022-035-036.
Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ Monday for NDZ019-
020-033-034-041-042-044>047-050.

&&

DISCUSSION...NH
AVIATION...NH
FIRE WEATHER...NH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
332 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024

NDZ019-020-033-034-041-042-044>046-302045-
Mercer-Oliver-Stark-Morton-Hettinger-Grant-Adams-Sioux-Emmons-
332 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024 /232 PM MDT Sun Sep 29 2024/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
North Dakota and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A Red Flag Warning is in effect through Monday afternoon. See
weather.gov/bis for more details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

A Red Flag Warning is in effect through Monday afternoon. See
weather.gov/bis for more details.

A Wind Advisory is in effect tonight through Monday afternoon.
See weather.gov/bis for more details.

Areas of frost are possible Monday night into Tuesday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

NDZ011-012-021-022-035-036-047-050-302045-
Ward-McHenry-McLean-Sheridan-Burleigh-Kidder-Logan-McIntosh-
332 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, south central North Dakota, and southeast North
Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A Red Flag Warning is in effect through this evening. See
weather.gov/bis for more details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

A Wind Advisory is in effect tonight through Monday afternoon.
See weather.gov/bis for more details.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

NDZ009-017-018-031-032-040-043-302045-
Williams-McKenzie-Dunn-Golden Valley-Billings-Slope-Bowman-
332 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024 /232 PM MDT Sun Sep 29 2024/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest North
Dakota and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Near critical fire weather conditions are expected through this
evening.

A Red Flag Warning is in effect later tonight through Monday
afternoon. See weather.gov/bis for more details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

A Red Flag Warning is in effect through Monday afternoon. See
weather.gov/bis for more details.

A Wind Advisory is in effect tonight through Monday afternoon.
See weather.gov/bis for more details.

Areas of frost are possible Monday night into Tuesday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

NDZ003>005-013-023-025-037-048-051-302045-
Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-Pierce-Wells-Foster-Stutsman-La Moure-
Dickey-
332 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, south central North Dakota, and southeast North
Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Near critical fire weather conditions are expected through this
evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

A Wind Advisory is in effect tonight through Monday afternoon.
See weather.gov/bis for more details.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

NDZ001-002-010-302045-
Divide-Burke-Mountrail-
332 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest North
Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Near critical fire weather conditions are expected through this
evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

A Wind Advisory is in effect tonight through Monday afternoon.
See weather.gov/bis for more details.

Areas of frost are possible Monday night into Tuesday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

NH