Tornado Warning 30, NWS Binghamton, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
137 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid conditions today with another round of
thunderstorms. A trailing cold front will move through the area
on Wednesday, bringing cooler temperatures but lingering shower
and thunderstorm chances. Fair weather and cooler temperatures
are expected Thursday and into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
139 PM update...
Convection continues to develop across the western Finger Lakes
and a broad area of w-central NY out ahead of an approaching
MCV that is rotating eastward across western NY. A layer of
strong 500mb winds (40-50 kts) associated with low-amplitude
short wave are swinging through the region and combining with
backed southerly surface winds (10-20 kts) to produce a
confined area of strong deep layer shear. This strong forcing is
working in tandem with a passing mesoscale convective vortex and
a rapidly destabilizing environment to produce very favorable
conditions for significant convective growth that will occur
over the next several hours and progress to the east. These
storms are starting out relatively discrete, but should
eventually evolve into a more linear mode after a couple hours
and the upper short wave catches up from the west.

A Severe Thunderstorms Watch is in effect until 6 PM this
evening with the main threat being damaging winds and a few
tornadoes. Cannot rule out hail as well.

The storms are expected to move rapidly to the east early this
evening and leave in their wake lingering scattered clouds and a
few light rain showers and. Winds will become more westerly and
temperatures will drop into the 60s with a brief period of much
lower humidity. The atmosphere recharges tomorrow morning with
temperatures quickly rising back into the 80s with dew points
into the lower 70s.

A trailing cold front over Lake Erie will push eastward and be
the focus of attention for more convective development during
the first half of the day Wednesday. Showers and storms are
expected to blossom over the central part of NY and spread to
the east/southeast through the late morning and early afternoon
hours. Some of these storms could becomes strong to
severe...mainly east and south east of a line from Corning to
Utica. The front moves quickly to the east as drier and cooler
air arrives from the west/nw.

Temperatures will warm into the 80s in NY and into the upper 80s
in ne PA Wed, but then cool into the 60s with dew points in the
50s by Wed night. Some patchy valley fog is possible.

1010 AM update...
We continue to track the remnants of a Midwest MCS with an
embedded MCV across southern Ontario this morning which is
expected to be the focal point for strong forcing that will
interact with a very unstable air mass and produce strong and
severe thunderstorms across a good portion of central NY this
afternoon. The SPC has upgraded the Day 1 Convective Outlook and
placed an Enhanced area of risk from the northern Finger Lakes
east to the western Mohawk Valley, and farther east into
southern VT. The main threat will be damaging straight-line
winds and a couple embedded tornadoes as well. Timing is still
questionable, but the most favorable start time looks to be as
early as 12-1 PM in the northern Finger Lakes, and potentially
and ending time as late as 8 PM near Utica and Cooperstown.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
325 AM Update...

Showers and storms are expected to linger Wednesday night and into
Thursday morning as a frontal system continues to drop south across
the region. Instability will decrease in the evening, but model
guidance and soundings do show up to 500 J/kg of MLCAPE and 40 to 45
kts of shear through the late evening hours. Because of this,
isolated strong thunderstorms will still be possible across southern
portions of NEPA and the Catskills. Overnight, this main band of
showers and storms will move out of the region though some lingering
showers will also be possible. Temperatures will fall into the upper
50s to mid 60s overnight.

As high pressure builds into the region, conditions will dry out
Thursday morning and will remain dry through the rest of the short
term period. Initially, the pressure gradient tightens up with the
high moving in so winds will be breezy during the daytime. With
cooler air in place thanks to the cold front, temperatures will only
max out in the 70s, though some valleys will likely exceed 80 thanks
to clearing skies. Overnight, conditions will be cooler than
previous nights as temps fall into the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
325 AM Update...

Most of the long term period will be dry as  high pressure will be
present over the region for awhile. Some isolated passing
showers/thunderstorms may be possible over the weekend for NEPA, but
forcing will be weak and moisture will be limited. Models bring a
slight increase in moisture up from the south in the mid to low
levels, but model soundings are dry above the surface, so if
anything can develop, it will be light. There is also a weak surface
front that drops south from Canada later in the weekend, but that
too will run into dry air and most model guidance favors drier
conditions across CNY, at least for now. Monday is favored to be dry
but a weak coastal low along a stationary front tries to bring
showers into the southern half of the region. For now, will PoPs
will remain capped at slight chance late Monday. Seasonable
temperatures are expected with highs in the 70s/80s and lows in the
50s/60s.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Line of convection/storms beginning to develop over western NY
and this line is expected to intensify as it sweeps to the east
through the rest of the afternoon. Some embedded segments of
this line of storms will likely have wind gusts greater than 40
kt. The airports with the greatest potential (30 pct chance) for
seeing these strong winds will be RME, SYR and ITH. There is a
lesser chance (10 pct or less) at ELM and BGM, and less than 5
pct at AVP. Timing of thunderstorms today appears to be starting
between 18-19Z at ITH/ELM/SYR, between 19-20Z at BGM and RME and
lasting as long as 2 hrs...but generally less than that.

After the storms end, areas of MVFR ceilings may develop late
tonight/early Wed morning. Some valley fog may impact ELM.
Conditions should improve after 13-14Z Wed morning.

Outlook...

Wednesday...Restrictions possible in showers and thunderstorms,
mainly in the morning from BGM to AVP.

Thursday through Saturday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for PAZ038>040-043-
     044-047-048-072.
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ015-016-018-
     022>025-036-037-055-056-062.
     Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ062.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MPH
NEAR TERM...BJT/MPH
SHORT TERM...BTL
LONG TERM...BTL
AVIATION...BJT/MPH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1111 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

NYZ062-PAZ040-043-044-047-048-072-171515-
Sullivan-Northern Wayne-Wyoming-Lackawanna-Luzerne-Pike-
Southern Wayne-
1111 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York and
northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

Scattered severe storms will be possible this afternoon and evening
with damaging winds and heavy rain as the main threats. Large hail
and isolated tornadoes are also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Isolated to scattered severe storms will be possible Wednesday
afternoon and evening. Damaging winds will be the main threat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
severe weather to the NWS.

NYZ009-017-044>046-057-171515-
Northern Oneida-Southern Cayuga-Cortland-Chenango-Otsego-Delaware-
1111 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 546 IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

Scattered severe storms will be possible this afternoon and evening
with damaging winds and heavy rain as the main threats. Large hail
and isolated tornadoes are also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Isolated severe storms will be possible Wednesday afternoon and
evening. Damaging winds will be the main threat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures. Please relay
any information about severe weather to the NWS.

NYZ015-016-018-022>025-036-037-055-056-PAZ038-039-171515-
Yates-Seneca-Onondaga-Steuben-Schuyler-Chemung-Tompkins-Madison-
Southern Oneida-Tioga-Broome-Bradford-Susquehanna-
1111 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 546 IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York and
northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

Scattered severe storms will be possible this afternoon and evening
with damaging winds and heavy rain as the main threats. Large hail
and isolated tornadoes are also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Isolated to scattered severe storms will be possible Wednesday
afternoon and evening. Damaging winds will be the main threat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures. Please relay
any information about severe weather to the NWS.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
139 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

NYZ022>024-PAZ038-161815-
Steuben NY-Chemung NY-Schuyler NY-Bradford PA-
139 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SCHUYLER...CHEMUNG...
SOUTHEASTERN STEUBEN AND NORTHWESTERN BRADFORD COUNTIES THROUGH 215
PM EDT...

At 138 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
South Corning, or over Corning, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Elmira, Corning, Southport, Big Flats, Horseheads, Hector, Elmira
Heights, Caton, Lindley, and Erin.

This includes the following highway exits...
 Interstate 86/Route 17 between 42 and 59.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 600 PM EDT for
central New York...and northeastern Pennsylvania.

&&

LAT...LON 4249 7704 4249 7699 4247 7699 4246 7696
      4246 7689 4254 7689 4239 7668 4229 7669
      4228 7654 4216 7653 4215 7656 4204 7655
      4191 7691 4200 7693 4200 7713 4215 7720
TIME...MOT...LOC 1738Z 239DEG 29KT 4212 7703

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

MWG

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