Flash Flood Warning 45, NWS Binghamton, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1111 AM EDT Fri Aug 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain associated with the remnants of Debby will move through the
area today, which will result in some areas of flash flooding. Some
strong to severe thunderstorms are also possible today, along
with localized damaging winds and possible isolated tornadoes.
Dry conditions return Saturday, then spotty showers are expected
early next week. Cooler temperatures will prevail through the
period.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1110 AM Update:

Starting to see wind gusts of 30-40 mph at times across parts
of the area, especially across Northeast PA. Most of these wind
gusts have been embedded in heavier bands of rain. Therefore,
increased forecast wind gusts quite a bit for the remainder of
this morning through this afternoon. Cannot rule out a few
isolated gusts up to 50 mph, but coverage is not expected to be
widespread enough for a Wind Advisory at this time.

920 AM Update:

The forecast remains largely on track and minimal adjustments
were made with this update. Keeping an eye on dual threats the
remainder of this morning through this afternoon: flash flooding
and the possibility of some isolated tornadoes. A Flood Watch
remains in effect for all of Central NY and Northeast PA, and a
Tornado Watch is in effect for all of Northeast PA plus Sullivan
County in NY. As the threat for isolated tornadoes moves
northward by this afternoon, it is possible another Tornado
Watch could be needed at a later time for those areas.

4 AM Update...

The remnant surface low of Debby is located in south-central
Virginia this morning. A band of steady moderate to locally
heavy rain extends north across the western half of PA into the
Finger Lakes region, with more scattered, but still locally
heavy showers across most of NEPA and into the Catskills. The
band of steadier rain will become more sharply defined through
the morning hours as low level convergence increases ahead of
the low track.

The forecast for heaviest QPF continues to favor the heaviest
amounts across the Finger Lakes Region, a little west of an
ELM-ITH-SYR axis, where the steadiest rain will fall. Further
east, especially east of I-81, precip will be more showery
through mid morning, but localized heavy rainfall and the
possibility of training supports keeping the Flood Watch in
place as-is.

Heading into the early afternoon, a cold front and associated
upper level trough will catch up with the remnant low as it
moves into NY. The band of steadier rain will begin shifting to
the east and will become more progressive, possibly evolving
into a line of convection and trailing stratiform rainfall as it
pushes east of I-81.

The threat for isolated tornadoes remains, and has expanded
northward. Weak instability, but strong low level (0-1km) shear
late this morning and into the afternoon will favor the
possibility of quick spin-up tornadoes, perhaps with little to
no lightning. The tornado risk will be most pronounced as the
front pushes through and the precip band evolves into a line of
convection.

Rain will mostly end before midnight, with partial clearing and
patchy fog developing in its wake before dawn.

Dry conditions will persist on Saturday with seasonably cool
temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM Update...

An upper level low will move east of Lake Huron Sunday, and
into northern Maine by Monday. Cyclonic flow aloft and a few
embedded shortwave troughs will promote diurnal showers and
isolated thunderstorms both Sunday and Monday, mainly north of
the PA line. Temperatures will remain below normal, with highs
mainly in the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
4 AM Update...

A broad area of high pressure centered over the Upper Midwest is
expected to expand over our area Tuesday. Meanwhile, a weak upper-
level shortwave over the Great Lakes looks to pass by near or just
south of the region later Tuesday through Tuesday night. Not much is
expected in terms of showers though during this time with just a
slight chance (<20%) of a shower Tuesday afternoon; otherwise, skies
are expected to be partly sunny. Highs Tuesday will be mainly in the
mid and upper 70s. Lows overnight will reach the 50s under a mostly
clear sky. With winds expected to be out of the north-northwest on
Wednesday off of Lake Ontario and a few weak perturbations around
aloft, there once again is a small chance of seeing an afternoon
shower. There may be a better chance of seeing some showers as we
move into the latter part of the week, but there is little in the
way of model agreement this far out. High temperatures Wednesday
through late week look to range from the mid 70s to the low 80s
while overnight lows range from the 50s to low 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Widespread rain showers are currently across the area with
varying conditions from VFR to Fuel-Alt with brief periods of
IFR. Guidance has been too low thus far with its ceilings and
visibility with the rain as much of the time early this morning
has been higher than IFR, so the forecast has been trended
upwards in both categories in the near term. Rain will continue
to overspread the area, coming down heavy at times as the
remnants of Debby move through. TEMPO groups have been added
over the next several hours to account for fluctuating IFR
conditions or worse between rain bands. A more defined band of
rain looks to move from west to east between 16Z and 21-22Z with
some gustier winds developing ahead and along it. This may also
be the best chance for thunder, outside of the storm that is
north of AVP and may make it to BGM this morning. However, with
confidence low in thunder, it's been left out during this time.
With that being said there is the potential for some LLWS
around 40-45 knots roughly 2000 ft AGL, mainly for RME, BGM and
AVP while the other terminals are borderline looking at
soundings generally after 16Z and through the afternoon.

After the heavy rain clears early this evening, there can be
some lingering showers, but gradual improving ceilings are
expected toward the end of the TAF and winds ease. If there's
enough clearing, some low stratus/fog may be possible for ELM.

.Outlook...

Saturday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR; isolated showers at
times, mainly over CNY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Flood Watch through late tonight for PAZ038>040-043-044-047-
     048-072.
NY...Flood Watch through late tonight for NYZ009-015>018-022>025-
     036-037-044>046-055>057-062.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BJG/MPH
NEAR TERM...BJG/MPH
SHORT TERM...MPH
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...DK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
648 AM EDT Fri Aug 9 2024

NYZ062-PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072-101100-
Sullivan-Bradford-Susquehanna-Northern Wayne-Wyoming-Lackawanna-
Luzerne-Pike-Southern Wayne-
648 AM EDT Fri Aug 9 2024

...TORNADO WATCH 616 IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...
...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York and
northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.
   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
severe weather to the NWS.

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-101100-
Northern Oneida-Yates-Seneca-Southern Cayuga-Onondaga-Steuben-
Schuyler-Chemung-Tompkins-Madison-Southern Oneida-Cortland-Chenango-
Otsego-Tioga-Broome-Delaware-
648 AM EDT Fri Aug 9 2024

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

Strong to severe thunderstorms may impact portions of Central New
York later today, with damaging winds and isolated tornadoes
possible. Areas near and east of I-81 will be most favored.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
severe weather to the NWS.

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