Flash Flood Warning 20, NWS Binghamton, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
230 PM EDT Mon Jul 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An active weather pattern will continue into the middle of the
work week with scattered showers and thunderstorms around each
day. Conditions become drier and warmer later in the week and
into the weekend as high pressure builds over the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
230 PM Update...

Storms developing across the Twin Tiers and NE
PA will move generally east-northeastward now and through the
evening hours. These storms and showers are developing in a
moist environment, with PWAT values between 1.5 to 1.75 inches.
Any of these storms and showers could produce heavy downpours,
and could cause localized flash flooding. CAMs have generally
sped up the timing, but they're still a couple hours behind with
onset of storms. Additionally, storms aren't stalling too much,
but there could be some backbuilding and training of storms and
showers that could lead to localized flash flooding. From a
shower that lasted about 20 minutes over the office, it produced
almost a half inch of rainfall, providing confidence that these
showers and storms are capable of producing a lot of rainfall
in a short amount of time.

Any storms will taper off after sunset, where showers will
prevail into the early morning hours of Tuesday. Patchy fog will
likely develop across the area after showers taper off, and lift
soon after sunrise. For Tuesday, scattered storms expected in
the afternoon, with temperatures in the low to mid 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
For Wednesday, upper level trough will be moving into the Great
Lakes region and becoming positively tilted as it runs into the
large upper level anticyclone off the east coast. Since this
trough is slow moving and the upper level ridge is holding
steady, there will continue to be modest amounts of 0-6 km shear
Wednesday. Bulk shear magnitudes are running around 30 knots
Wednesday afternoon. ML CAPEs are projected to be 1000-1500 J/KG
on the NAM12 in western and parts of central NY with lesser
CAPE farther south and east. The GFS as usual has less CAPE
under 1000 J/KG. CAMs for Wednesday are showing a batch of
showers and a few storms skirting northeast PA in the morning
with a possible MCV hence the lower CAPE. Scattered
thunderstorms develop in the afternoon farther north into
central NY as per CAMs. This goes along with a short wave riding
northeast around the base of the Great Lakes Trough. I wouldn't
be surprised if our area ends up in a marginal risk but it is
indeed a "marginal" set up for severe at Day 3. Any convection
that forms will last into the evening before tapering off
overnight into Thursday morning.

For Thursday, Great Lakes trough presses east and pushes a cold
front through central NY during the late morning/early afternoon and
northeast PA by evening. With the upper level trough really making a
move to the east pressing more into the ridge aloft, bulk wind shear
values between 0-6 km get up to over 40 knots. Instability will be
modest with sfc based CAPEs at or above 1000 J/Kg. There is more
uncertainity as to the timing with this front and how much
instability will be available. But there is higher confidence in
strong enough shear for severe thunderstorms. So for now we will
have high POPs for showers and thunderstorms most of Thursday given
uncertainty in timing of front.

Then for Thursday night, cold front clears northeast PA as per GFS
and Euro with high pressure building into the Great Lakes. The GFS
is dry with the Euro showing some residual low-level moisture and a
few showers. We will stick with NBM for now given uncertainities.
The amount of rain as per Euro would be very light anyway.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
For Friday, high pressure builds across the region with northwest
flow aloft downstream from an upper level ridge over the upper
Midwest. This should lead to mostly dry conditions. Again the 00z
Euro continues to hold onto low-level moisture Friday morning but
again it would be light and spotty precipitation.

For the weekend, high pressure builds in aloft above a surface high
with fair weather and increasing temperatures. By Monday, models
diverge some but overall it will be very warm and humid with a
southerly flow in place. We will stick close to NBM for this period
given model uncertainities.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
120 PM Update...

Scattered thunderstorms are beginning develop across the Twin
Tiers and NE PA, and will continue to move in from south to
north through the afternoon, with moderate to heavier rain
showers moving through behind them. TEMPO groups have been
added for storms; BGM, ELM, and AVP through 20Z, and the other
NY terminals in the next few hours. Any thunderstorms can
produce heavy rainfall, reducing vsbys to IFR or worse briefly.

After the thunderstorms in the evening, it will taper off to
showers, drizzle and patchy fog. CIGs lower to MVFR Fuel Alt or
IFR for all terminals, except SYR and RME, who will only likely
fall to MVFR.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Thursday...Several rounds of showers and
thunderstorms with associated restrictions. Activity will
generally be dependent on daytime heating, with best chances of
rain and thunder during afternoon-evening hours.

Friday...VFR conditions expected as high pressure builds in.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...DJN
AVIATION...KL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
225 PM EDT Mon Jul 22 2024

NYZ009-015>018-023-025-036-037-044>046-231830-
Northern Oneida-Yates-Seneca-Southern Cayuga-Onondaga-Schuyler-
Tompkins-Madison-Southern Oneida-Cortland-Chenango-Otsego-
225 PM EDT Mon Jul 22 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Scattered thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday could produce
locally heavy rainfall and/or gusty winds. A frontal passage on
Thursday appears to be the best chance to see organized, stronger
thunderstorms at this time. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts
and outlooks as the details become more clear in the coming days.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NYZ022-024-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072-231830-
Steuben-Chemung-Tioga-Broome-Delaware-Sullivan-Bradford-Susquehanna-
Northern Wayne-Wyoming-Lackawanna-Luzerne-Pike-Southern Wayne-
225 PM EDT Mon Jul 22 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York and
northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered showers and slow moving thunderstorms could produce
locally heavy downpours this afternoon into tonight. There is at
least a marginal to slight risk for isolated instances of flash
flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Scattered thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday could produce
locally heavy rainfall and/or gusty winds. A frontal passage on
Thursday appears to be the best chance to see organized, stronger
thunderstorms at this time. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts
and outlooks as the details become more clear in the coming days.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
421 PM EDT Mon Jul 22 2024

NYZ009-018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-044-
047-048-072-222230-
Northern Oneida-Onondaga-Steuben-Schuyler-Chemung-Tompkins-
Madison-Southern Oneida-Cortland-Chenango-Otsego-Tioga-Broome-
Delaware-Sullivan-Bradford-Susquehanna-Northern Wayne-Wyoming-
Lackawanna-Luzerne-Pike-Southern Wayne-
421 PM EDT Mon Jul 22 2024

* Scattered Thunderstorms *

Scattered thunderstorms with locally heavy downpours and sub
severe gusty winds will move northeast across central New York and
northeastern Pennsylvania into the early evening. Ponding of
water on roadways and a few downed tree branches are possible
from these thunderstorms.

MWG

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