Severe Thunderstorm Warning 99, NWS La Crosse, WI

384 
WWUS53 KARX 312355
SVSARX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
655 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

MNC157-010030-
/O.CON.KARX.SV.W.0099.000000T0000Z-240801T0030Z/
Wabasha MN-
655 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN WABASHA COUNTY...

At 655 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Goodhue, or 11
miles south of Red Wing, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Mazeppa, West Albany, Zumbro Falls, Millville, Bellechester, Hammond,
South Troy, Jarrett, Rattelsnake Point, Oak Center, County Roads 33
And 4, Highway 63 And County 2, Bluff Valley Campground, Maple
Springs, Gilbert Valley, Bear Valley, and County Roads 31 And 2.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4437 9255 4437 9243 4445 9243 4445 9224
      4444 9223 4443 9217 4441 9212 4420 9233
      4419 9255
TIME...MOT...LOC 2355Z 292DEG 23KT 4438 9257 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.50 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Skow

791 
WWUS53 KARX 010008
SVSARX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
708 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

MNC157-010030-
/O.CON.KARX.SV.W.0099.000000T0000Z-240801T0030Z/
Wabasha MN-
708 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN WABASHA COUNTY...

At 708 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Mazeppa, or 14
miles south of Red Wing, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Mazeppa, West Albany, Zumbro Falls, Millville, Bellechester, Hammond,
South Troy, Jarrett, Rattelsnake Point, Oak Center, Bluff Valley
Campground, Bear Valley, and County Roads 31 And 2.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4445 9243 4431 9222 4420 9233 4419 9255
      4437 9255 4437 9243
TIME...MOT...LOC 0008Z 292DEG 23KT 4435 9246 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.50 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Skow

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
205 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe storm threat tonight with some lingering
  storms on Thursday.

- Continued warm into the weekend but some signal for drier and
  cooler weather later next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 205 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

TONIGHT and THURSDAY:

Focus going into the evening is convective storm threat, including
location, timing, and intensity for our area. Still lots of details
to work out. Per usual, convective allowing models are all over the
place and struggling catching up with reality this afternoon.

Tracking mid level trough across the Dakotas with several short
waves steering main convective threats. Northern wave is leading to
convection across western Minnesota but short term guidance still
suggests this will take a turn to the southeast tonight, riding the
700 mb cap and better CAPE gradient. Unsure if this will happen as
storms may stay ahead of this feature, albeit elevated in nature.
Meanwhile another feature is lifting out of eastern Nebraska that
may be bigger player as associated front edges into higher MUCAPE
axis from eastern Nebraska northward along SD-MN border. Shear
values are also higher closer to the wave with far shorter and
chaotic hodographs the further east you go. Again, warm mid level
temperatures may be limiting convection initially but still
expecting it to fill in as afternoon goes on.

While it makes sense that storms would erupt this afternoon along
associated front and mainly track west and south of us, am a little
concerned about convection across northern areas and how that may
play into this. In any event, could be looking at a strong to severe
storm risk further north and east, and perhaps earlier, than expected,
especially if a well developed cold pool can form. Damaging
wind continues to be main threat with bowing segments.

Wave from overnight will still be lingering across Wisconsin on
Thursday, which will likely force additional showers and storms,
especially ahead of it. Higher CAPE values will be shunted off to
the southeast taking higher risk of any severe storms with it.
But could still see enough low level instability and favorable
vorticity fields for non supercell landspout set up if strong
enough storm can form under passing low.

FRIDAY into NEXT WEEK:

Mean upper ridge placement remains fairly consistent across the
western CONUS at least into early next week before we see more
height falls across the Upper Midwest next week. This keeps the
western Great Lakes along the edge of the cap /warmer air to the
southwest/ and perhaps along a frontal boundary.

Difficult to put any detail into timing and location this far in
advance, but any short waves traveling through this stronger mid
level flow on northeast edge of ridge could lead to a more organized
convective risk for us.

Medium range guidance diverges later in the forecast period, but one
consistency is idea of a bit more ampflication in flow pushing
cooler and drier into region from the northwest. This would lead us
into a drier and cooler regime. Certainly ensembles suggest CAPE
values among members are highest in short term with no real signal
for higher instability later in forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

VFR conditions expected through the day today. Flight categories
will lower heading into the later evening and overnight
timeframe as a line of thunderstorms moves through the area
from west to east. The main threat with these storms will be
gusty northwest winds. After this line moves through, scattered
showers and thunderstorms will be possible through the rest of
the day. Light southerly winds this afternoon will shift to
northwest winds Thursday morning.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Shea
AVIATION...Cecava

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
319 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061-011000-
Mitchell-Howard-Winneshiek-Allamakee-Floyd-Chickasaw-Fayette-
Clayton-Wabasha-Dodge-Olmsted-Winona-Mower-Fillmore-Houston-
Taylor-Clark-Buffalo-Trempealeau-Jackson-La Crosse-Monroe-Juneau-
Adams-Vernon-Crawford-Richland-Grant-
319 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast
Minnesota...northeast Iowa and southwest into central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Thunderstorms tonight. A few could be strong to severe, mostly
this evening and west of the Mississippi river. Damaging winds
are the main threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Storm chances persist Thursday. Organized severe weather is not
expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Rainfall or severe reports are appreciated.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled.

Rieck