Severe Thunderstorm Warning 79, NWS La Crosse, WI

725 
WWUS53 KARX 132236
SVSARX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
536 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

MNC157-132245-
/O.CAN.KARX.SV.W.0079.000000T0000Z-240713T2300Z/
Wabasha MN-
536 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL WABASHA COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
southeastern Minnesota...and west central Wisconsin.

&&

LAT...LON 4420 9178 4418 9160 4417 9161 4414 9156
      4413 9155 4411 9155 4410 9154 4408 9154
      4404 9157 4402 9156 4402 9153 4394 9161
      4409 9189 4415 9185
TIME...MOT...LOC 2235Z 287DEG 23KT 4410 9171 

$$

MNC169-WIC011-132300-
/O.CON.KARX.SV.W.0079.000000T0000Z-240713T2300Z/
Winona MN-Buffalo WI-
536 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT
FOR CENTRAL WINONA AND SOUTHEASTERN BUFFALO COUNTIES...

At 535 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Fountain City,
or near Winona, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Law enforcement reported ping pong ball size hail at 
         Minnesota City at 534 PM.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe storm will be near...
  Winona, Goodview, and Fountain City around 540 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this severe thunderstorm include Lock And
Dam 5, Czechville, Merrick State Park, Lock And Dam 5 A, Dodge,
Marshland, and Whitman.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4420 9178 4418 9160 4417 9161 4414 9156
      4413 9155 4411 9155 4410 9154 4408 9154
      4404 9157 4402 9156 4402 9153 4394 9161
      4409 9189 4415 9185
TIME...MOT...LOC 2235Z 287DEG 23KT 4410 9171 

HAIL THREAT...OBSERVED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.50 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

JAW

683 
WWUS53 KARX 132246
SVSARX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
546 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

MNC169-WIC011-132300-
/O.CON.KARX.SV.W.0079.000000T0000Z-240713T2300Z/
Winona MN-Buffalo WI-
546 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT
FOR CENTRAL WINONA AND SOUTHEASTERN BUFFALO COUNTIES...

At 545 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Winona, moving
east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Two inch hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Law enforcement reported two inch hail 3 miles west of 
         Minnesota City.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe storm will be near...
  Winona around 550 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this severe thunderstorm include Merrick
State Park, Lock And Dam 5 A, Dodge, Marshland, Minnesota City,
Pickwick, and Bluff Siding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4417 9173 4417 9161 4414 9156 4413 9155
      4411 9155 4410 9154 4408 9154 4404 9157
      4402 9156 4402 9153 4394 9161 4405 9181
      4413 9180
TIME...MOT...LOC 2245Z 287DEG 23KT 4408 9162 

THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...OBSERVED
MAX HAIL SIZE...2.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

JAW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
253 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rounds of storms this afternoon through Monday night. Some
  storms will be strong to severe this afternoon through tonight
  with damaging wind gusts being the primary threat. Large hail
  and heavy rain are also possible. Isolated strong storms are
  possible Sunday with increasing probabilities for strong to
  severe storms on Monday.

- Hot and humid conditions continue this weekend with highs in
  the upper 80s and lower 90s. Widespread heat indices in the
  middle to upper 90s with some areas reaching 100 on Sunday.

- Cooler and drier conditions beginning Tuesday and into much of
  the upcoming week with high temperatures as low as the middle
  to upper 70s by the middle of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Storms, Some Severe This Afternoon Through Tonight:

As we continue through the afternoon and evening, a messy interplay
of subtle mesoscale thermodynamic features and lifting mechanisms
will need to be monitored closely. While the overall conceptual
model for today remains vaguely similar with the thermal ridge
trying to build in leading to a developing cap. The wrinkle being
thrown into this is the convective system throughout the morning and
afternoon that pushed through northern portions of the region
earlier this morning which leaves some questions for how much
instability has been worked over and if any outflow propagation
could mitigate the capping we could see later this afternoon and
evening leading to some different potential scenarios.

With the convection spreading through portions of north-central WI
and initiating across portions of MN, observing a fairly worked over
atmosphere in these areas leading to relatively limited instability.
This in combination with the increasing 700mb temperatures further
southwest will setup a fairly sharp MUCAPE gradient later this
evening shown in the 13.15z RAP. With this in place, some of the
CAMs would suggest a cluster of storms to be able to develop with a
very weak nose of 850mb moisture transport (the 13.12z HRRR and
ARW are good examples of this). With roughly 25-40 kts of bulk
shear and fairly robust MLCAPE (2000-4000 J/kg) present in the
13.15z RAP, would think in this scenario that storm mode would
take on a multi-cell, perhaps supercellular configuration as it
progresses through with mainly a damaging wind and large hail
threat. Would not be able to completely rule out an isolated
tornado with some low-level curvature in the KRST 13.17z RAP
sounding if this scenario unfolds. The 13.12z ARW family really
likes to portray this scenario as well with little development
of an MCS later tonight with the shortwave passage, likely due
to convective contamination upstream. Not ruling out that the
previously forecasted MCS would still manifest in this scenario.
However, with downstream convection messing with overall
thermodynamics, would have serious implications for this
overnight MCS potential as it would have minimal instability to
work with. Either way, will need watch this convection over MN
closely over the next few hours as the CAMs all disagree with
how to handle it.

Another possibility, is more development of the thermal ridge
leading to the previously mentioned capping inversion further
through the local area, similar to previous forecast iterations.
Looking at 700mb temps in the 07.12z HREF would suggest keeping the
10-12 C temps southwest of the I-94 corridor. This can be shown with
the current probabilities for 10 C temps or greater along the I-90
corridor of 40 to 70%. Additionally, will need to watch how much
instability manages to entrain itself across this region with fairly
substantial contamination has occurred from ongoing convection across
northern WI. Assuming that enough instability is present, damaging
wind gusts would be the primary threat with an organized MCS pushing
through roughly the I-94 corridor tonight with lower confidence in
it organizing further southwest. The degree to which the cap builds
in would determine the southwestern extent of this MCS overnight.
Widespread rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1" would be expected with this
MCS with locally as high as 2-3" possible per the 13.12z HREF
ensemble max for QPF through Sunday morning. However, with the
progressive nature of these storms would expect any flooding
concerns to be very isolated.

The key takeaways from all of this would be that much of how the cap
and convection early in day affected it will determine how
convection will manifest later this evening and into the overnight.
Two scenarios are present with an MCS overnight within the vicinity
of the I-94 corridor being one possibility. However, uncertainty
remains in exactly how far northeast the cap develops through the
evening and overnight and if instability has been mitigated due to
earlier convection. Additionally, will need to be vigilant for a
secondary scenario with severe storms this evening if any outflow
boundaries from ongoing convection in central MN can manifest
anything. Damaging wind gusts will be a threat with both scenarios
but large hail cannot be ruled out with any quasi-discrete
convection when also considering mid-level lapse rates of around
7C/km.

Additional Storms, A Few Strong to Severe into Monday:

Sunday continues to trend more on the conditional side for any
severe weather with the aforementioned cap firmly in place during
the morning. With the lack of any shortwave energy, the main forcing
mechanism for any convection during the day on Sunday would be
residual outflow boundaries from prior convection overnight
Saturday. While the cap does try to erode towards peak heating,
would say that you are less likely to have any residual outflow
boundary later into the day with the MCV associated with tonight's
convection well south and east. Overall would anticipate with the
stronger cap earlier in the day and lack of forcing later into the
day would enable a drier trend but will hold onto some precipitation
chances (15-30% chance) when considering how much instability will
be present (4000-5000 J/kg of MLCAPE in the 13.15z RAP), not much
would be needed to initiate convection.

Further potential for strong to severe storms are possible Monday
and Monday night as additional pieces of weak shortwave energy push
through the region during the afternoon/evening hours dragging a
surface cold front along with it. Instability ahead of the boundary
looks fairly solid with MLCAPE values of 3000-4000 J/kg and more
robust shear profiles relative to this weekend in the 13.12z NAM
which would be fairly favorable for more organized severe storms
along this boundary. With the cap still a question as shown earlier
in the day in the 13.12z NAM but does try to erode by mid-day.
Consequently, the SPC has a Slight Risk (Threat level 2 of 5) for
their day 3 outlook to address this potential.

Heat Continues Through Monday:

With the aforementioned warmer air aloft building overnight and into
Sunday, zonal to northwesterly flow aloft coupled with
south/southwesterly surface flow will allow temperatures to trend
above normal for the weekend and Monday. Sunday likely will trend
warmer than today with 13.13z NBM having a 25th to 75th percentile
spread for highs at La Crosse of 90 to 94 degrees. With southerly
flow helping aid dewpoints in the lower to middle 70s on Sunday,
pretty good consensus that heat indices will near 100 degrees for
some locations for Sunday. Could still see some storms on Sunday
with any residual outflow boundaries that may be present so still
some potential for temperatures to remain cooler if storms develop,
but overall would expect temperatures to trend warmer in either
case. Saturday and Monday will likely trend warmer as well however,
with convection around probably will trend slightly cooler but still
above normal with heat indices in the 90s for most.

Drier, Cooler by Tuesday Through The End of the Week:

As we head into Tuesday, northerly flow will help aid in cooler air
to be advected into our region behind a cold front that progresses
through our region aided by a shortwave late Monday. Consequently, t
he 13.00z grand ensemble (GEFS/EC ensemble/Canadian ensemble)
generally trend temperatures below normal, having an inter-quartile
range of 72 to 77 degrees for highs on Wednesday at La Crosse with
similar degree of confidence throughout the rest of the week.
Additionally, as a surface high pressure pushes into the region mid-
week shown in the 13.12z GFS/EC/NAM, would expect minimal
precipitation chances from Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Outside of thunderstorm chances and brief IFR reduction
possibility, VFR conditions are expected to prevail through
this TAF period. Rather low confidence TAF this period with
uncertainty surrounding the evolution of upstream thunderstorm
activity and anticipated redevelopment this evening. Storms are
expected to develop across central and northern Minnesota,
dropping south into the local area tonight and have included a
prob30 at LSE for these chances. Amendments may be needed as
confidence in chances adapt this afternoon.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Naylor
AVIATION...JAW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
352 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061-141300-
Mitchell-Howard-Winneshiek-Allamakee-Floyd-Chickasaw-Fayette-
Clayton-Wabasha-Dodge-Olmsted-Winona-Mower-Fillmore-Houston-
Taylor-Clark-Buffalo-Trempealeau-Jackson-La Crosse-Monroe-Juneau-
Adams-Vernon-Crawford-Richland-Grant-
352 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast
Minnesota...northeast Iowa and southwest into central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Strong to severe storms are possible, especially this afternoon
and tonight. Damaging winds and locally heavy rainfall are the
primary hazards, but large hail is also possible.

Afternoon heat indices of 90 to 100 are expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Periodic storm chances continue Sunday through Monday, with the
higher chances on Monday. Storms could become strong to severe.

Afternoon heat indices of 90 to 100 are expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Some spotter groups may be requested at some point this weekend
through Monday.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
356 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     Hail             Gilmanton               44.47N 91.68W
07/13/2024  M1.00 Inch       Buffalo            WI   Public

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
446 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     Rain             Wabasha                 44.37N 92.05W
07/13/2024  M2.10 Inch       Wabasha            MN   Trained Spotter

            Rainfall since just after 3pm.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
502 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0426 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Hixton                  44.38N 91.01W
07/13/2024                   Jackson            WI   Law Enforcement

            Power lines and trees down in Hixton area.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
509 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0359 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 E Independence        44.36N 91.37W
07/13/2024                   Trempealeau        WI   Emergency Mngr

            Trees and power lines down across central
            Trempealeau County, mainly Independence and
            Whitehall areas.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
512 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     Hail             Pickwick                43.98N 91.60W
07/13/2024  E1.00 Inch       Winona             MN   County Official

&&

jar