Severe Thunderstorm Warning 121, NWS La Crosse, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
708 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Threat for severe storms this evening but weakening as they
  move east overnight.

- Cooler and drier weather for most of Labor Day weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 204 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024

LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY

As a low pressure system moves east across central Minnesota and
northern Wisconsin, the low clouds across the area will gradually
rise and become scattered to broken late this afternoon and evening.
This will allow surface temperatures to warm into the 70s north of
Interstate 94 and into the lower and mid-80s for the remainder of
the area. Surface dew points will remain in the mid and upper 60s
north of Interstate 94 and climb into the lower and mid-70s for
areas south of Interstate 94 as this area enters the warm sector of
this system. This will result in 0-1 km mixed layer CAPES climbing
into the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range by late afternoon south of
Interstate 94.

As the southerly 850 mb winds increase into the 30 to 35 knot range,
the hodographs will increase in length across central Minnesota and
west-central Wisconsin. This will result in the potential for
tornadic development near the triple point ahead of the surface low.
At this time, the highest tornado threat (up to 5%) looks to be from
the Twin Cities northward into north-central Minnesota. However,
there is still a small chance of QLCS tornadoes with any bowing
segments along the line of storms moving east through the area, but
the 0-1 km shear in our area remains on the weak side.

With effective 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 40 knot range, there may be
a few isolated supercell thunderstorms along the line of storms with
initial development prior to the line development. This may result
in some large hail and damaging wind gusts, but the higher threats
looks to be too our west. Another favorable parameter for severe
weather tonight is the DCAPES in the 1000 to 1300 J/kg range across
much of the area, so this looks to be our primary threat.

The severe weather threat looks to be from 6 PM to 9 PM west of the
Mississippi River and between 9 PM and midnight for the remainder of
the area.

Storms should weaken as they trek east overnight and gradually
clear the area early Friday.

SATURDAY INTO NEXT WEEK

As upper low and associated trough continue to lift northeast and
out of the area, will be watching broad ridge build into the western
CONUS and eventually into the middle part of the country. This puts
us in fairly persistent northwest flow leading to a cooler and drier
regime, outside of passing troughs in northern parts of the flow.

Medium range guidance might vary slightly on timing, but one short
wave passes across northern Great Lakes Saturday night but appears
higher chances for any precipitation will remain along and north
of Interstate 94 in Wisconsin.

After that, things look even quieter until later next week. While
some rain is needed, cooler temperatures and drier air will be the
main story, likely making for a very pleasant stretch of weather.
Overnight lows a few mornings /Mon & Tue/ could dip into the 30s in
favored bog areas of central Wisconsin, otherwise we will see a
gradual warmup or moderation in temperatures after a cooler start to
the week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 703 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024

Thunderstorms will affect both LSE/RST this evening with some
thunder at least in the vicinity for a few hours at each site.
Later tonight, expect stratus to return for another late
night/early morning.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Boyne/Shea
AVIATION...Ferguson

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
834 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061-301200-
Mitchell-Howard-Winneshiek-Allamakee-Floyd-Chickasaw-Fayette-
Clayton-Wabasha-Dodge-Olmsted-Winona-Mower-Fillmore-Houston-
Taylor-Clark-Buffalo-Trempealeau-Jackson-La Crosse-Monroe-Juneau-
Adams-Vernon-Crawford-Richland-Grant-
834 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for parts of southeast
Minnesota...northeast Iowa and southwest into central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Strong to severe storms are possible this evening primarily west
of the Mississippi River. While large hail and perhaps a tornado
cannot be ruled out, the primary hazards will be damaging winds
and locally heavy rainfall.

Main timing is 7-10pm in southeast Minnesota and 9pm-1am in other
areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Widespread spotter activation is not expected tonight but
observations of high winds or hail would be appreciated.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled.

Shea

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